InvestmentTools.com | home          
Selling a soybean contract short is worth two years at the Harvard Business School.

Robert Stovall




Soybean Futures

Soybeans from 1969 (200 day exponential average red) 200 day ROC (rate of change) green.
 
Soybeans Recent(200 day exponential average red) 200 day ROC (rate of change) green.
 
The price of Soybeans in constant Dollars (price adjusted by Consumer Price Index - CPI). Red line is a 50 day exponential average. (This is a Logarithmic Scale
 
Soybean Point & Figure (Spot) Box value = 2 reversal = 3
 
Soybean Futures  -- The Blue line is a Donchian channel, red line is a 5 day exponential average, green line is a 20 day exponential average. Vertical green bars MACD (Moving average convergence divergence) 5 and 20
 
Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) & Soybeans(green)
 
Soybean / Corn Ratio
 



Soybean U.S. and World Stock to Use Ratio
 




U.S. September 1 Soybean Stocks (Beginning Stocks)
 
Soybeans Notes & Links:
 


Fish Meal (GlobeFish)


Agronomists believe that mid-west soybean yields could drop about 1/4 of 1 bushel per acre for each day planted after May 20th.
"The market always takes a dip in February" a veteran CBOT soybean trader said. It's pretty regular.(History however suggests that the "February Brake" occurs in March in bull years.)
"On first notice days, the frequency is to open low and close high," a veteran CBOT soybean trader said. "So, I would not rule out a recovery."
Big deliveries open lower and close higher, one CBOT broker said. It's happened many times.
A yardstick to watch is the new crop soybean/corn ratio, which is trading very close to its historical norm of 2.43 to 1. Last year (07) corn rallied enough to drop the ratio below 2 to 1, spurring the massive increase in acres. Bryce Knorr, Farm Futures Senior Editor
______________________________________

8/27/10 Sudden death syndrome disease is spreading in Iowa and Illinois.  
8/20/10 Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour said it pegged the 2010-11 U.S. crops at 3.5 billion bushels, above USDA's August estimate of 3.4 billion.
Statistics Canada exceeded expectations by estimating the 2010-11 all-wheat crops at 22.7 million tons.
8/17/10 (Arlan Suderman)  Iowa State plant pathologist says "over 50%" of Iowa soybean fields affected by Sudden Death Syndrome this year.
7/16/10 China's July soybean imports will be 5.8 million metric tons, up 32% YoY, China's Ministry of Commerce reports Thursday
7/14/10 Goldman Sachs has upped their 3-month price forecast for grains: GS sees corn reaching $4.15 vs. their previous estimate of $3.75 per bushel.
6-months out, corn prices are seen reaching $4.50 vs. $4.00.
Soybean 3-month outlook seen at $9.75 v. $9.25,
6-month out GS sees prices reaching $9.50 vs. $9.00.
Wheat 3-month outlook is seen at $5.20 v s. $4.75.
6-month out wheat is seen reaching $5.50 vs. $5.00.
7/9/10 The USDA's U.S. 2010-2011 ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was lowered from 1.573 to 1.373 billion bushels.
Soybeans were kept at 360 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from .991 to 1.093 billion bushels.
The USDA's world 2010-2011 ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was lowered from 147 to 141 million tons. Versus the average analyst estimate of 1.404 billion bushels and the June estimate of 1.603 billion bushels.
Soybeans were raised from 67 to 68 million tons.
Wheat was lowered from 194 to 187 million tons.
7/8/10 Russia cut its forecast for this year's grain output to 85 million tonnes from 90 million as 14 key growing regions declared a state of emergency due to severe drought.
(Bloomberg) -- China, the world’s second-largest corn consumer, may give up efforts to be self-sufficient in the commodity and boost imports 10-fold by 2015 to feed livestock, said a researcher at Japan’s biggest grain trader.
6/30/10 The USDA estimated the 2010 planted area for:
Corn at 87.87 million acres, up almost 2% YoY
Soybeans at 78.87 million acres, up 2% YoY
All wheat at 54.31 million acres, down 8% YoY
Spring wheat at 13.91 million acres, up 5% YoY
Cotton at 10.91 million acres, up 19% YoY
Oats 3.176 million (the lowest on record)
Rice at 3.512 million acres up from 3.411 million
As of June 1, the USDA estimates stocks of:
Corn at 4.31 billion bushels -- up 1% YoY
Soybeans at 571 million bushels -- down 4% YoY
All wheat at 973 million bushels -- up 48% YoY
Rice at 57.4 million hundredweight -- up from 48.4 YoY
6/10/10 The USDA's 2010-2011 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was lowered from 1.818 to 1.573 billion bushels.
Soybeans were lowered from 365 to 360 million bushels.
Wheat was reduced from 997 to 991 million bushels.
Sugar was lowered from 844,000 to 764,000 short tons.
Cotton was lowered from 3.0 to 2.8 million bales.
The USDA's 2010-2011 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was lowered from 154 to 147 million tons.
Soybeans were raised from 66 to 67 million tons.
Wheat was lowered from 198 to 194 million tons.
Cotton was lowered slightly from 50.1 to 49.6 million bales.
6/2/10 (ISU) It is likely that La Niña conditions will be reached during the month of June. This would indicate a substantial increase in corn yield risk for the U.S. , shifting the likely hood of a below trend yield from about 50/50 to 70%. Most of the risk increase would be in the central and eastern areas of the Corn Belt. E. Taylor  
4/9/10 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was increased from 1.799 to 1.899 billion bushels.
Soybeans remained at 190 million bushels.
Wheat was reduced from 1,001 to 950 million bushels.
Sugar was increased from 1.075 to 1.218 million tons.
Cotton was reduced from 3.20 to 3.00 million bales.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was increased from 140 to 144 million tons.
Soybeans were increased from 61 to 63 million tons.
Wheat was reduced from 197 to 196 million tons.
Cotton was reduced slightly to 51 million tons.
2/9/10  The USDA estimates 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks for:
Soybeans were reduced from 245 to 210 million bushels.
The USDA estimates 2009-2010 world ending stocks for:
Soybeans were reduced from 59.8 to 59.7 million tons.
The USDA estimate of the Brazil's soybean crop was raised from 65 to 66 million tons.
The USDA estimate of the Argentinean soy crop was kept at 53 million tons.
National Commodities Supply Corp., or Conab, on Tuesday pegged Brazil's 2009-10 soy crop at 66.7 million metric tons. Conab's fifth crop estimate for the record-breaking 2009-10 soy crop is 16.7% above the 2008-09 crop of 57.2 million tons
Argentina, the world’s second- and third-largest producers, threatening record crops.
1/12/10 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was raised from 1.675 to 1.764 billion bushels.Yields were the culprit, coming in at 165.2 bu/acre, from 162.9 bu/acre last month and 0.7 bu/acre above the highest trade estimate.
Soybeans were reduced from 255 to 245 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 900 to 976 million bushels.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was raised from 132 to 136 million tons.
Soybeans were raised from 57 to 60 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 191 to 196 million tons.
ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was raised from 1.625 to 1.675 billion bushels.
Some 12% of the crop is still sitting in the snow!
Soybeans were reduced from 270 to 255 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 885 to 900 million bushels.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was kept at 132 million tons.
Soybeans were kept at 57 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 188 to 191 million tons.
Cotton was lowered from 54 to 52 million tons.
11/19/09 The early start to the rainy season this year in Brazil has heightened concerns that Asian soybean rust could vex farmers more than usual. The first incident of the disease for the 2009-10 crop year was discovered Wednesday in Mato Grosso, Brazil's No. 1 soybean producing state.
11/10/09 USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was lowered from 1.672 to 1.625 billion bushels. (46 day supply)
Soybeans were raised from 230 to 270 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 864 to 885 million bushels. (145 day supply)
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was lowered from 136 to 132 million tons. (60 day supply)
Soybeans were raised from 55 to 57 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 187 to 188 million tons.
11/4/09 Informa estimates the US corn crop at 13.064 billion bushels with a yield of 164.8 bushels per acre
Informa estimates the US bean crop at 3.333 billion bushels with a bpa of 42.4.
The last USDA estimate, in Oct, was 13.018 billion corn with a 164.2 bpa and 3.250 billion beans with a 42.4 bpa.
Last month, Informa estimated the corn crop at 13.127 with a 164.7 bpa and the bean crop at 3.250 billion with a 44 bpa.
10/21/09 Argentine farmers will plant a record 19 million hectares with soybeans this season, up from the previous high mark by 7%, the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchangesaid.
They forecasts 2009-10 wheat production at 7.5 million metric tons. Down sharply from the five year average of 14.8 million tons
10/9/09 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was raised from 1.635 to 1.672 billion bushels.
Soybeans were raised from 220 to 230 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 743 to 864 million bushels.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was lowered from 139 to 136 million tons.
Soybeans were raised from 51 to 55 million tons.
Wheat unchanged at 187 million tons.
Cotton unchanged at 56 million tons.
10/7/09 Conab, the Brazilian version of the USDA, estimates the upcoming bean crop at 62.3-63.3 million tonnes versus 57.1 million last year. They put the corn crop at 50.9-52.2 million tonnes vs 51 million last year. Conab's wheat guess is 5.25 million tonnes versus their September guess of 5.85 million.
9/30/09 The USDA estimated U.S. soybean stocks at 138 million bushels, vs. 111 million expected.
The USDA pegged U.S. corn stocks at 1.674 billion bushels vs. 1.719 billion expected
The USDA estimates wheat stocks at 2.215 billion bushels compared to the average analyst’s estimate of 2.132 billion bushels.
9/18/09 China buys another 6.7 million bushels of US soybeans. Analyst says recent frost cut 110 mln bu from China's soy crop
9/3/09 Informa's September guess:
13.010 billion bushels for corn
3.305 billion for beans
corn yield of 162.6 bushels per acre
bean yield of 43.1.
In August the USDA estimated:
corn crop at 12.761 billion with a yield of 159.5
bean crop of 3.199 billion with a 41.7 yield.
8/23/09 China imported 160 mln bu of soybeans in July; up 25% YoY.
8/12/09 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 1.550 to 1.621 billion bushels.
Soybeans lowered from 250 to 210 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 706 to 743 million bushels.
Sugar was reaised from 359,000 to 709,000 tons.
Cotton unchanged at 5.60 million bales.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 139 to 141 million tons.
Soybeans lowered from 52 to 50 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 181 to 184 million tons.
Cotton was lowered from 58 to 57 million bales.
8/11/09 China's domestic soybean output growth can't match the rate of rising demand, so imports will continue to rise, a government official said Tuesday. China's soybean imports this year will likely total around 40 million metric tons, compared with 37.44 million tons last year, according to General Administration of Customs data. In the January-July period, China imported 26.48 million tons of soybeans, up 28% YoY
7/10/09 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 1.09 to 1.55 billion bushels.
Soybeans were raised from 210 to 250 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 647 to 706 million bushels.
Sugar was lowered from 459,000 to 359,000 tons.
Cotton unchanged at 5.60 million bales.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 125 to 139 million tons.
Soybeans were raised from 51 to 52 million tons.
Wheat was lowered from 183 to 181 million tons.
Cotton was raised from 57 to 58 million tons.
7/2/09 “More evidence of a developing El Niño event has emerged during the past fortnight, and computer forecasts show there’s very little chance of the development stalling or reversing,” Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said in a report.
6/30/09 The USDA said:
87.03 million acres of corn were planted – above trade estimates.
77.48 million acres of soybeans were planted -- less than expected.
59.78 million acres of wheat were planted – above trade estimates.
The USDA said June grain stocks for:
Corn were 4.27 billion bushels – modestly above trade estimates.
Soybeans were 597 million bushels, modestly above trade estimates.
Wheat were 667 million bushels.
6/15/09 142.2 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in May, 6% more than in April and more than expected. Soybean crush must average only 125 million bushels per month in June, August and September to reach the USDA target; which is 10 million below the seasonal pace.
6/10/09 The Department of Agriculture said by August 31 soybean stocks  would fall to 110m bushels, the lowest since stocks dropped to 103m bushels in 1976-77.
6/10/09 USDA’s 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimates:
Corn was lowered from 1.145 to 1.090 billion bushels.
Soybeans were lowered from 230 to 210 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 637 to 647 million bushels.
Sugar was raised from 289,000 to 459,000 tons.
Cotton was unchanged at 5.60 million bales.
USDA’s 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimates:
Corn was lowered from 128 to 125 million tons.
Soybeans were lowered from 52 to 51 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 182 to 183 million tons.
Cotton was lowered from 58 to 57 million tons.
5/18/09 The USDA said:
62% of corn was planted, down from the five-year average of 85%.
25% of soybeans were planted, down from the five-year average of 44%.
50% of spring wheat was planted, down from the five year average of 90%.
42% of cotton was planted, down from the five year average of 53%.
5/12/09 The USDA estimates 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks of:
Corn at 1.145 billion bushels, down from 1.600 billion bushels in 2008-2009.
Soybeans at 230 million bushels, up from 130 million bushels in 2008-2009.
Wheat at 637 million bushels, down from 669 million bushels in 2008-2009.
Sugar at 289,000 tons, down from 1.192 million tons in 2008-2009.
Cotton at 5.6 million bales, down from 6.8 million bales in 2008-2009.
The USDA estimates 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Corn at 128 million tons, down from 140 million tons in 2008-2009.
Soybeans at 52 million tons, up from 43 million tons in 2008-2009.
Wheat at 182 million tons, up from 167 million tons in 2008-2009.
Cotton at 58 million bales, down from 62 million bales in 2008-2009
4/29/09 The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange pegged this year's soybean crop at just 1.249 billion bushels, down 184 million from USDA's latest estimate.
4/9/09 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was lowered from 1.74 to 1.70 billion bushels.
Soybeans were lowered from 185 to 165 million bushels.
Wheat was reduced from 712 to 696 million bushels.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was reduced from 145 to 143 million tons.
Soybeans were lowered from 50 to 46 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 156 to 158 million tons.
The USDA reduced its guess of Argentina's soybean crop from 43 to 39 million tons
3/31/09 The USDA said March 1st stocks of:
Corn totaled 6.96 billion bushels, up 1% YoY.
Soybeans totaled 1.30 billion bushels, down 9% YoY.
Wheat totaled 1.04 billion bushels, up 46% YoY.
The USDA said, in 2009, U.S. farmers intend to plant:
84.99 million acres of corn, down 1% YoY.
76.02 million acres of soybeans.
58.64 million acres of wheat, down 7% YoY
8.81 million acres of cotton, down 7% YoY.
3/12/09 The China National Grain and Oils Information Center expects the country's output of grains in 2009 to be lower for the first time in six years.
It projects wheat output to be down 1.3% to 111 million metric tons
It projects corn output to be down 1.5% to 163 million tons
It projects soybean output down 3.2% to 15 million tons
3/11/09 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Soybeans were lowered from 210 to 185 million bushels.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
Soybeans unchanged at 50 million tons.
2/10/09 The USDA estimates U.S. 2008-2009 ending stocks of:
Corn unchanged at 1.790 billion bushels.
Soybeans lowered from 225 to 210 million bushels.
Wheat unchanged at 655 million bushels.
Sugar was reduced from 1.072 to 1.066 million tons.
Cotton was raised from 6.90 to 7.70 million bales.
The USDA estimates 2008-2009 ending stocks of:
Corn was raised from 136 to 137 million tons.
Soybeans were reduced from 54 to 50 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 148 to 150 million tons.
Cotton was raised from 59 to 62 million tons.
2/5/09 The USDA estimates Argentina's soybean crop at 42.5 million tons, down from the January 12th estimate of 49.5 million tons.
1/11/09 The USDA's 2008-2009 ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 1.474 to 1.790 million bushels.
Soybeans were raised from 205 to 225 million bushels.
Wheat was increased from 623 to 655 million bushels.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was increased from 124 to 136 million tons.
Soybeans were unchanged at 54 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 147 to 148 million tons.

The USDA said 42.1 million acres of winter wheat were planted last fall, down 9% YoY
Corn fell the exchange limit in Chicago and soybeans and wheat also plummeted on the news.
As of December, the USDA said there were:
10.1 billion bushels of corn stocks, up 2% YoY.
2.28 billion bushels of soybean stocks, down 4% YoY.
1.42 billion bushels of wheat stocks, up 26% YoY.
12/11/2008 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 1.124 to 1.474 million bushels, more than expected.
Soybeans unchanged at 205 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 603 to 623 million bushels.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 110 to 124 million tons.
Soybeans unchanged at 54 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 145 to 147 million tons.
11/10/2008 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was increased from 1.088 to 1.124 billion bushels.
Soybeans unchanged at 205 million bushels.
Wheat was increased from 601 to 603 million bushels.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was increased from 106 to 110 million tons.
Soybeans were reduced, from 54.3 to 54.1 million tons.
Wheat was increased from 144 to 145 million tons.
The USDA estimates Brazil’s and Argentina's soybean production up 3%, down from last month's estimate of up 5%.
11/6/08 Brazil's Ag Ministry dropped their projection for their 2008/09 (Oct/Sept) soybean crop to 58.4-59.3 million tonness from October's forecast of 60.10-61.27 million tonnes.
11/4/08 The cost of production for Brazilian soybeans, produced in Mato Grosso, is estimates in a range of $8.27 to 9.19 with transportation costs adding $2.50-3.25 per bushel. This means farmers will need to see a board price north of $11.00 per bushel in the May 09 forward futures in order to lock in a positive return.
10/28/08 Because of a computer error the USDA issued new supply and demand estimates for 2008-2009 corn and soybeans.
Corn was reduced from 1.154 to 1.088 billion bushels.
Soybeans were reduced from 220 to 205 million bushels.
10/21/08 China intends to set up a soybean reserve of up to 1.5 million tonnes.
10/8/2008 (Bloomberg) Exports of palm oil from Indonesia, the largest producer, may decline by as much as 1.5 million metric tons a year after the nation made the use of renewable energy mandatory, a government official said.
9/30/08 The USDA said as of September 1st, stocks of:
Corn totaled 1.624 billion bushels.
Soybeans totaled 205 million bushels.
Wheat totaled 1.857 billion bushels.
9/12/08 The USDA's U.S. 2008-2009 ending stocks estimate for:
Soybeans unchanged at 135 million bushels.
The USDA's world 2008-2009 ending stocks estimate for:
Soybeans were increased from 49 to 51 million tons.
7/12/08 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks guess for:
Corn was raised from 833 to 1,133 million bushels, more than expected. (Take notice when a bearish report fails to produce its expected results)
Soybeans were reduced from 140 to 135 million bushels.
Wheat was increased from 537 to 574 million bushels.
Sugar was increased from 607,000 to 767,000 short tons.
Cotton was reduced from 5.30 to 4.60 million bales.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks guess for:
Corn was raised from 105 to 112 million tons.
Soybeans were increased slightly from 48.9 to 49.3 million tons.
Wheat was increased from 133 to 136 million tons.
Cotton was reduced from 53 to 51 million bales.
7/6/08 India may increase edible oil imports by more than 80 % in the four months to October.
Argentina's House approved the president's sliding-scale grain and soybean export tax plan Saturday, sending the bill to the Senate for a vote. However, farm groups have warned that a Congressional endorsement of the tax may lead them to go back on strike.
6/30/08 The USDA estimated 74.53 million acres of soybeans were planted, up 17% YoY.
USDA quarterly grain stocks report 676 million bushels of soybeans, down 38% YoY.
6/24/08 Stats Canada estimated:
25.1 million acres of wheat were planted, up 16% YoY.
15.8 million acres of canola were planted, up 7% YoY.
2.97 million acres of corn were planted, down 13% YoY.
2.99 million acres of soybeans were planted, up 3% YoY.
6/10/08 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Soybeans were reduced from 185 to 175 billion bushels.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for Soybeans were estimated at 50.4 million tons.
5/27/08 China may reduce soybean-oil import tariffs from the current 9% to boost domestic supply, analysts said.
4/9/08 The USDA's estimate for 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of:
Soybeans were raised from 140 to 160 million bushels.
The USDA's estimate for 2007-2008 world ending stocks of:
Soybeans were increased from 47.4 to 49.3 million tons.
3/31/08 In 2008 the USDA expects farmers to plant 74.8 million acres of soybeans, up 18% YoY
The USDA said, as of March 1st, U.S. stocks of Soybeans totaled 1.43 billion bushels, down 20% YoY.
2/21/08 The USDA said that its 2008 preliminary planting estimate for:
Soybeans are 71 million acres, up 12% from the previous year.
2/14/08 Thailand has started requiring that all its diesel fuel include a component made from palm oil, a move that could reduce costly energy imports but is driving up prices for the commodity.
Grain and oilseed prices rose on fresh signs of demand and shrinking supply. Almost half of China’s autumn and winter rapeseed crop was negatively affected by the recent rain and snow storms, the China National Grain & Oils Information Center said.
2/8/08 The USDA's estimate of 2007-2008 world ending stocks of Soybeans were lowered from 46.2 to 45.8 million tons.
2/8/08 The USDA's estimate of 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of Soybeans were lowered from 175 to 160 million bushels.
1/17/08 (Interfax) according to China customs, China imported 30.8 million tons of soybeans in 2007, up 9% YoY.
11/27/07 China's National Grain and Oil Trade Center sees a 2007 grain and oilseed supply shortfall of 26 million tons.
11/9/07 The USDA's 2007-20008 U.S. ending stocks estimate of
Soybeans were reduced from 215 to 210 million bushels.
The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate of
Soybeans were reduced from 50.8 to 49.4 million tons.
10/17/07 The USDA is reporting the first Asian soybean rust finding in Indiana, in addition to several new cases in Iowa and Missouri
The USDA's 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks estimate of Soybeans are unchanged at 215 million bushels.
The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate of Soybeans increased from 50 to 51 million tons.
9/29/07 The USDA said that, on September 1, 2007 Soybean stocks totaled 573 million bushels, up 27% YoY.
9/17/07 China plans to restrict fuel made from agricultural products and cut import tariffs to reduce food inflation. Corn demand is expected up 14.5% by 2010, while output is expected to rise 3.5%. China's overall inflation rate in August was a 10-year high of 6.5%. China's food-price inflation however was 18.2%, 34.6% for vegetable oils and 495 percent for meat.
8/26/07 Pro Farmer, estimates 2007  U.S. soybean production at 2.658 billion bushels with a per acre yield of 42.0 bushels.
8/10/07 The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate for:Soybeans fell from 51.9 to 51.6 million tons.
8/10/07 The USDA's 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks estimate for: Soybeans fell from 245 to 220 million bushels.
8/8/07 Dow-Jones News said this year's drought in China will mean "China is likely to import millions tons more of soybeans in the coming crop year than earlier expected."
6/29/07 The USDA estimates planted acres of Soybeans at 64.1 million acres, down 15% YoY -- the lowest since 1995.
The USDA estimates June 1, 2007, stocks of Soybeans totaled 1.09 billion bushels, up 10% YoY.
6/26/07 Stats Canada said Canada's farmers planted 2.9 million acres of soybeans, down 3% from a year ago.
6/11/07 The USDA estimates 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of Soybeans remained at 320 million bushels.
The USDA estimates 2007-2008 world ending stocks of Soybeans at 54 million tons, down from 64.
4/10/07 The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate for Soybeans were increased from 57 to 61 million tons.
The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Soybeans were increased from 595 to 615 million bushels.
The estimated soybean production in Argentina was increased from 44.0 to 45.5 million tons.
The estimate for Brazil was increased from 57.0 to 58.8 million tons.
3/30/07 The USDA's Prospective Plantings report expects 67.14 million acres of soybeans, down from 75.5 million acres a year ago. (est. 69.17)
The USDA said that on March 1, 07 there were 1.78 billion bushels of soybean stocks, up 7% YoY.
3/14/07 Asian soybean rust was found in a bin of soybeans that came from southeast Iowa last fall.
3/6/07 At its Outlook Forum, the USDA said they expect 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of Soybeans to fall from 595 to 370 million bushels.
2/9/07 Mato Grosso’s soybean farmers reporting soybean rust so far this year has increased to 1,020, from 613 last year. This after 40 inches of rainfall over the last thirty days.
2/9/07 The USDA's world 2006-2007 ending stock estimate for Soybeans were increased from 56 to 57 million tons
2/9/07 The USDA's U.S. 2006-2007 ending stock estimate for Soybeans were increased from 575 to 595 million bushels.
2/7/07 A leading Asian soybean rust researcher says this year's winter weather likely hasn't knocked out the fungal disease from locations where it’s overwintering in the Southern U.S.
Brazil's Vegetable Oils Industry Association changed their crop forecast to 57.1 million tonnes from 55.8 million tonnes projected in January. This compares with the USDA forecast of 56 million tonnes.
1/12/07 The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate for Soybeans increased to 56 million tons. (stocks/usage 25%)
1/12/07 The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Soybeans were increased from 565 to 575 million bushels. (stocks/usage 19%)
12/11/06 The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate of Soybeans were unchanged at 565 million bushels.
The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate of Soybeans were increased from 55.2 to 55.7 million tons.
10/20/06 Virginia became the 15th U.S. state with Asian rust in its soybean fields. Asian rust may impact spring plating decisions for soybeans.
10/12/06 The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for soybeans were increased from 530 to 555 million bushels.
10/12/06 The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate for soybeans were increased from 52 to 55 million tons.
9/8/06 The USDA said that U.S. 2005-2006 exports of Soybeans finished the year down 15% YoY.
8/12/06 The USDA's U.S. 2006-2007 ending stocks estimate for Soybeans were reduced from 560 to 450 million bushels.
8/12/06 The USDA's world 2006-2007 ending stocks estimate for Soybeans were reduced from 53 to 50 million tons.
6/30/06 The USDA estimated U.S. planted acres this spring 74.9 million acres of soybeans, up 4% from a year ago, but down 3% from the March estimate.
6/30/06 The USDA reported U.S. grains stocks as of June 1st 990 million bushels of soybeans, up 42% from a year ago.
4/10/06 The USDA 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for soybeans were unchanged at 565 million bushels.
The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate forsoybeans were reduced from 54.4 to 53.8 million tons.
The USDA's estimate of Brazil and Argentina's soybean crop was reduced from 3.64 to 3.58 billion bushels, this is still 6% more than last year.
4/3/06 The tiny biodiesel industry received a boost from Big Oil on Monday when a major petroleum refiner, Motiva Enterprises LLC, began blending the soy-based alternative with traditional motor fuel at a Dallas terminal
3/31/06 The USDA's 2006-2007 planting estimate for Soybeans is 76.9 million acres, up 7% YoY and the most on record.
As of March 1st, U.S. grain stocks of Soybeans totaled 1.67 billion bushels, up 21% YoY.
3/10/06 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for soybeans were raised from 555 to 565 million bushels.
1/12/06 The USDA's soybean production estimate for Argentina and Brazil remained at 3.64 billion bushels.
12/9/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate forSoybeans were increased from 47 to 48 million tons.
12/9/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Soybeans were increased from 350 to 405 million bushels.
11/10/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Soybeans increased from 260 to 350 million bushels.
11/3/05 Brazil's 2005-2006 soybean output is likely to reach 56.7 to-58.6 million tons, the Agriculture Ministry forecasting agency said in the first official estimates for next year's crop. Farmers may cut the area planted with soy by as much as 8 percent to 21.5 million hectares. Brazil harvested 51.1 million metric tons this year.
10/27/05 The U.S. Census Bureau said that 133.2 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in September, 2% more than last month. Soybean oil stocks totaled 1.69 billion pounds, down 2% from last month.
10/14/05 The National Oilseed Processors Association said that 127.1 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in September.
10/12/05 USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimates for Soybeans were increased from 205 to 260 million bushels.
10/12/05 Today’s USDA production estimates for Soybeans were increased from 2.856 to 2.967 billion bushels.
09/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. crop estimate for
Soybeans were increased from 2.791 to 2.856 billion bushels.
09/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Soybeans were increased from 180 to 205 million bushels.
07/28/05 The USDA drought monitor shows severe to extreme drought conditions persisting in northern Illinois and northeast Missouri.
07/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Soybeans were reduced from 255 to 210 million bushels.

The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate for
Soybeans were reduced from 52 to 51 million tons.
06/29/05 Soybean imports doubled in May! China, the world's biggest soybean-buyer, bought 2 million metric tons of the oilseed last month, 143 percent more than in May 2004, according to figures released by the Customs General Administration of Customs on Friday. Imports jumped 55 percent in April from a year earlier.
06/17/05 Analytical firm Informa Economics pegged 2005 soybean planted
acreage at 72.91 million acres, down one million from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's March Prospective Plantings report, according to trade sources. Also the eastern half of the Midwest is expecting dry weather to continue through the weekend and perhaps longer.
06/10/05 The USDA's U.S. ending stocks estimate for Soybeans were reduced from 290 to 255 million bushels.
The USDA's world ending stocks estimate for Soybeans were estimated at 52 million tons, up from 47 million tons in 2004-2005.
06/06/05 U.S. Corn and soybeans are entering a critical part of the growing season, when the crops must become established. Most of Illinois received less than 40% of normal precipitation during the March-to-May period, causing moisture supplies to slowly vanish.
05/26/05 The U.S. Census Bureau said that 139.4 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in April.
05/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Soybeans is 290 million bushels, down from 355 million bushels in 2004-2005.
05/09/05 The USDA said that 79% of the corn, 26% of the soybeans, and 39% of the cotton crops were planted. 59% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent, down from 63% a week ago.
04/28/05 The U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday reported U.S. March soybean crush totaled 149.7 million bushels, above the average analyst estimate of 148.7 million bushels.
U.S. March soy oil stocks totaled 1.790 billion pounds, versus analysts estimates of 1.779 billion pounds. Soy meal inventories totaled 251,744 tons versus the average analyst estimate of 316,700 short tons.
04/27/05 Asian soybean rust has been found in Georgia, with a positive identification confirmed Wednesday.
04/25/05 The U.S. Census Bureau is expected to report on Thursday
the U.S. March soybean crush at 148.7 million bushels. If it
does, that would rank as the second highest crush ever for March.
04/14/05 The U.S. Department of Agriculture said that old-crop soybean export sales last week hit a marketing-year low of 128,800 metric tons with China absent from the list of buyers. New-crop sales were 143,600 tons, total soybean sales came to 272,400 tons, which was under pre-report estimates ranging from 350,000 to 550,000 tons.
04/12/2005 AgRural said it forecasts the Brazilian soybean crop at 51.3 million metric tons, down from its previous estimate of 52.3 million tons, due to excessive rain in the main soybean-producing state of Mato Grosso. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has the crop currently figured at 54 million tons.
03/11/05 Brazil's Vegetable Oils Industry Association said that the Soybean crop is only 53.9 million tons.  Southern Brazil is still dry with chances for light showers coming on Sunday.
03/10/05 The USDA's estimate of this spring's soybean crop in Brazil was reduced from 63.0 to 59.0 million tons (2.17 b.bu.), due to dry weather. The soybean estimate for Argentina remained the same, at 39.0 million tons (1.43 b.bu.)
03/10/05 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Soybeans were reduced from 440 to 410 million bushels.
The USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for
Soybeans were reduced from 61 to 56 million tons.
03/07/05 Brazil's 2004-05 soybean crop (October-September) will total 57.0 million metric tons, the Agriculture Ministry said Monday. The latest forecast was down from on the 61.4 million tons predicted in December due to a prolonged drought in southern states
03/04/05 Conditions in southern Brazil remain hot and dry. Dow Jones Newswires quoted Brazilian analysts as saying that the soybean crop would only total 53 million tons (1.95 b. bu)  The USDA estimated 63 million ton (2.31 b. bu)
02/03/05 July soybeans were up 14.75 cents at $6.322, the highest close in six months, continuing to gain on South America's dry weather conditions. Private weather forecasters are pushing rain back in southern Brazil by 24 to 48 hours from prior forecasts.
02/28/05 Federal research tracks Soybean Rust movement  “In preparation for this upcoming soybean planting season, [we] have been designing a sentinel plot system and a monitoring system to see if soybean rust is going to move, where it is going to move in the United States, to be able to detect it early and then intervene wherever necessary,” he said.
02/25/05 The USDA projected the 2005-2006 U.S. soybean harvest at 2.87 billion bushels, resulting in a drop in ending stocks, from 440 to 410 million bushels.  Dry conditions are expected to continue in southern Brazil.
02/24/05 The U.S. Census Bureau said  that 148.5 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in January, less than expected.
02/22/05 AgRural, estimated Brazil's soybean crop at 60 million tons, less than the USDA's most recent estimate of 63 million tons (2.3 billion bushels).
02/18/05 The Brazilian firm, Safras e Mercado, estimated the current soybean crop at 61.2 million tons, less than the USDA's estimate of 63 million tons (1.7 billion bushels).
02/17/05 Soybean traders remain fixated by the possibility that persistent arid weather may be causing yield damage to late-maturing crops in South America.
02/17/05 Compared to one year ago, U.S. exports for Soybeans improved from +5% to +6%.
02/15/05 Brazilian Agriculture Minister Roberto Rodrigues said he is in talks with farmers to seek a WTO probe, known as a panel. The U.S. spent $11 billion on farm subsidies last year to guarantee a minimum price for crops including soybeans, making it difficult for Brazilian farmers to compete, Rodrigues said in an interview in Brasilia.
02/15/05 The National Oilseed Processors Association said that 141 million bushels of U.S. soybeans were crushed in January, down 2 million bushels from the previous month.
02/14/05 Argentina's 2004-05 soy crop is estimated at 37.7 million
tons, the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange said Monday. The USDA currently forecasts the crop at 39 million tons.
02/14/05 State and private forecasters in Brazil said Monday that most of Brazil's keygrowing areas are expected to remain hot and dry through Wednesday.  
02/14/05 Soybeans inspected for export were 26.094 million bushels for the week ended Feb. 10, down from 27.081 million the previous week, the USDA reported. For the current marketing year to date, soybean inspections are 706.47 million bushels, up from 665.36 million last year at this time.
02/09/05 The USDA's soybean production estimate for Brazil and Argentina this spring was reduced slightly from 2.80 to 2.75 billion bushels.
02/09/05 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Soybeans was increased from 435 to 440 million bushels. And the USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for Soybeans was increased slightly to 61.4 million tons.
01/27/05 The U.S. Census Bureau said that 150 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in December, less than expected.
01/21/05 Bird flu problems in southeast Asia are growing worse. Vietnam reported its seventh human fatality due to the flu.
01/12/05 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Soybeans was reduced 25 million bushels to 435 million bushels.
The USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for
Soybeans was increased to 61 million tons.
01/06/05 Compared to one year ago, U.S. exports for
Soybeans improved from +3% to +5%.
01/06/05 the soybean crop in southern Brazil is dry and in need of moisture soon.
01/05/05 The yield-slashing Asian rust soybean fungus has now been identified in 128 municipalities across Brazil's agricultural belt, up from 88 two weeks ago, Dow Jones Newswires reported Wednesday. Seventy-one of the cases were reported in the southern state of Parana, Brazil's second largest soybean producer while 18 cases were reported in the No. 1 state of Mato Grosso.
01/05/05 The USDA said that 116,000 tons of U.S. soybeans were sold to China.
12/14/04 China continues to pull on global commodities with demand for US soybeans rising in 2004/05 by nearly 50 per cent on the previous year.
12/14/04 The Brazilian government said that their 2004-2005 soybean crop will total 61.4 million tons, less than the USDA's 64.5 million ton estimate.
12/10/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Soybeans was unchanged at 460 million bushels.The USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for Soybeans was reduced to 61 million tons. The Report Lacks Surprises
12/01/04 South Carolina and Tennessee became the eighth and ninth U.S. states to confirm the presence of Asian rust in their soybean fields.
11/30/04 Missouri became the seventh U.S. state to discover Asian rust in its soybean fields.
11/22/04 Asian soybean rust was officially discovered in a soybean
sample collected Nov. 18 in northeast Arkansas near the Mississippi River, Dow Jones Newswires reported. The yield-slashing fungus was believed to have been spread by Hurricane Ivan in September. It has already been found in Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida, Georgia and Alabama since Nov. 10.Asian rust was also, again, detected on a soybean plantation in southwestern Parana. The fungus is easily spread  and is believed to be all over Brazil this year.
11/17/04 Florida has found the highly contagious soybean rust fungus in one of its soybean fields on Wednesday, becoming the third infected U.S. state in a week, state officials said.
11/16/04 The USDA said that three more soybean fields in Louisiana and one in Mississippi tested positive for Asian rust, showing that the fungus is spreading quickly.
11/12/04 The USDA's U.S. 2004-2005 production estimate for
Soybeans was increased from 3.107 to 3.150 billion bushels and
the USDA's U.S. 2004-2005 ending stocks estimate for
Soybeans was increased by 55 million bushels to 460 million bushels.
11/10/04 The first case of soybean rust has been found on the mainland United States and could affect U.S. crops for the near future, costing farmers millions of dollars, the Agriculture Department said on Wednesday.
11/10/04  Wednesday, rumors were widespread of soybean rust spores being discovered in the southern Delta Plain states of Louisiana and Arkansas. The rumors have not been confirmed.   
10/11/04 The USDA's world 2004-2005 ending stocks estimates for Soybeans increased from 52 to 59 million tons.
10/11/04 The U.S. 2004-2005 production estimate for Soybeans was increased from 2.836 to a record high 3.107 billion bushels.
10/11/04 he USDA's U.S. 2004-2005 ending stocks estimates for Soybeans were increased 215 million bushels to 405 million bushels.
10/07/04 Compared to one year ago, U.S. 2004-2005 exports for Soybeans improved from +40% to +47%.
09/29/04 China said that they will burn a cargo  of soybeans from Argentina that tested positive for fungicide.
09/10/04 The USDA estimates of 2004-2005 world ending stocks for
Soybeans were increased 2 million tons to 52 million tons.
09/10/04 The USDA estimates of 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks for
Soybeans were unchanged at 190 million bushels.
08/23/04 Asian rust fungus has been found in Columbia
07/12/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 estimate of world ending stocks for
Soybeans increased  to 47 million tons.
07/12/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. production estimate for
Soybeans is 2.94 billion bushels, a new record high.
07/12/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 estimates of U.S. ending stocks for
Soybeans were reduced by 10 million bushels to 210 million bushels.
06/30/04  USDA's U.S. soybean inventories as of June 1 were  at 410 million bushels, soybean acreage in the U.S. was revised downward to 74.809 million acres. Last year's acreage were  at 73.404 million.
06/23/04 China has officially ended its ban on South American soybeans.
06/10/04 Brazil and Argentina's current soybean crop was estimated at 3.18 billion bushels. In 2004-2005, Brazil and Argentina are expected to produce a total of 3.86 billion bushels of soybeans, more than the U.S.'s 2.97 billion bushels.
06/10/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimates for Soybeans were increased 30 million bushels to 220 million bushels. World ending stocks estimates for Soybeans were set at 47 million tons, up from 32 million tons in 2003-2004.
06/01/04 An industry source said on Monday that China rejected a third soy cargo from Brazil over the weekend saying it was contaminated with a chemical known as carboxin.
05/27/04 Chinese crushers (unconfirmed)are seeking to delay or cancel a reported 20-30 cargoes (1.1-1.65 MMT)as they are still at a high risk of defaulting on soybeans.
05/27/04 Brazil's IBGE estimated this years  soybean crop at 50.02 MMT, down from its prior estimate of 52.6 MMT, and down from last years crop of 51.5 MMT. Planted area  was pegged at 21.2 million hectares, up 15 % from a year earlier of 18.5 million hectares. Yield was pegged at 2.358 kilo versus 2.791 the perv. year
05/27/04 The U.S. Census Bureau said that 112.5 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in April, down 11% from a year ago.
05/25/04 ...let's look at the fundamentals," said another analyst at a Chinese government think-tank, who didn't want to be identified. As China's living standards improve, consumption of edible oil is rising at a pace of 500,000 tons to 700,000 tons a year. (ODJ)
04/30/04 Private Brazilian research Safras lowered its estimate on Brazil's 2003-04 soybean crop to 49.98 million metric tons
04/27/04 The USDA said that the Asian soybean rust fungus could cost U.S. farmers $640-$1.3 billion per year the first year of infestation - should the disease hit the U.S., the USDA views this as likely. The report is on the ERS website. Asian rust fungus has now also been found in the major soybean producing province of Santa Fe in Argentina.
04/27/04 Hamburg-based newsletter Oil World on Tuesday forecast world 2003/04 soybean production at 187 million tonnes, down 9 million tonnes from last year due to disappointing South American crops. That level of production would fail to meet estimated global soybean demand of 197 million tonnes, it said.
04/21/04 Argentina lowered its estimate of their soybean crop to 33 million tons (1.21 b. bu.), less than the USDA's 35 million ton estimate.
04/21/04 Brazilian agricultural consultant AgRural lowered its estimate for Brazil's 2003-04 soybean crop to 49.26 million metric tons due to unfavorable weather conditions in first months of the year
04/16/04 The soybean harvest in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's third largest soybean state, is expected to total 5.4 million tons, down 44% from a year ago due to dry weather.
04/08/04 USDA cut its U.S. 2003/04 (old-crop) soy ending stock estimate to a fresh 27-year low of 115 million bushels, down from an average of analysts' estimates for 125 million and below the USDA's March forecast for 125 million. USDA also trimmed its forecast for Brazilian soy production this year to 56 million tonnes from the March forecast for 59.5 million, and Argentina's crop from 36.5 to 35 million tons.
04/07/04 Brazil's Vegetable Oils Industry Association cut its estimate of Brazil's soybean crop from 56.9 to 52.8 million tons.
03/31/04 As of March 1st, the USDA reported Soybean stocks at 905.5 million bushels, down 25% from a year ago.
03/31/04 The USDA's planting estimates for Soybeans are a record high 75.4 million acres, up almost 3% from a year ago.












GS sees corn reaching $4.15 vs. their previous estimate of $3.75 per bushel.
6-months out, corn prices are seen reaching $4.50 vs. $4.00.
Soybean 3-month outlook seen at $9.75 v. $9.25,
6-month out GS sees prices reaching $9.50 vs. $9.00.
Whe