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Selling a soybean contract short is worth two years at the Harvard Business School.

Robert Stovall




Soybean Futures



Soybeans from 1969 (200 day exponential average red) 200 day ROC (rate of change) green.
 
Soybeans Recent(200 day exponential  average red) 200 day ROC (rate of change) green.
 
The price of Soybeans in constant Dollars (price adjusted by Consumer Price Index - CPI). Red line is a 50 day exponential average. (This is a Logarithmic Scale
 
Soybean Point & Figure (Spot) Box value = 2 reversal = 3
 
Soybean Futures  -- The Blue line is a Donchian channel, red line is a 5 day exponential average, green line is a 20 day exponential average. Vertical green bars MACD (Moving average convergence divergence) 5 and 20
 
Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) & Soybeans(green)
 
Soybean / Corn Ratio
 



Soybean U.S. and World Stock to Use Ratio
 




U.S. September 1 Soybean Stocks (Beginning Stocks)
 
U.S. Rail Grain Traffic
 
Soybeans Notes & Links:
 


Fish Meal (GlobeFish



The results were stunning: The longer rotations produced better yields of both corn and soy, reduced the need for nitrogen fertilizer and herbicides by up to 88 percent, reduced the amounts of toxins in groundwater 200-fold and didn’t reduce profits by a single cent.
Agronomists believe that mid-west soybean yields could drop about 1/4 of 1 bushel per acre for each day planted after May 20th.
"The market always takes a dip in February" a veteran CBOT soybean trader said. It's pretty regular.(History however suggests that the "February Brake" occurs in March in bull years.)
"On first notice days, the frequency is to open low and close high," a veteran CBOT soybean trader said. "So, I would not rule out a recovery."
Big deliveries open lower and close higher, one CBOT broker said. It's happened many times.
A yardstick to watch is the new crop soybean/corn ratio, which is trading very close to its historical norm of 2.43 to 1. Last year (07) corn rallied enough to drop the ratio below 2 to 1, spurring the massive increase in acres. Bryce Knorr, Farm Futures Senior Editor
The US produced around 8% of the world's wheat crop in 2013, as opposed to 32% of its soybeans and 36% of its corn.

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5/26/14 US soybean ending stocks to usage at the end of 2013/14 is currently seen at a record tight 3.8%, expanding to a more comfortable 9.6% by the end of 2014/15.so
World Soybean ending stocks in 2014/15 are anticipated to be almost 12 MMT above the previous record high at 82.23 MMT.
4/13/14 Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said the odds of an El Nino developing in the May-July period now exceed 70%.
3/16/14 USDA estimates world soybean stocks at 70.64 mmt vs trade expectations of 71.46 and 73.01mmt previous month.
•USDA puts soybean stocks at 145 mln bu vs trade expecting of 141 and 150 previous month.
• USDA estimates World corn stocks at 158.47 mmt vs trade expectations of 156.27 and 157.3 mmt last month.
•USDA has corn ending stocks at 1.456 billion bus vs trade expecting 1.488 bln; 1.481 last month

3/2/14 Global soybean ending stocks rose to 73.01 mmt, up from 72.33 mmt in January and above trade expectations of 72.67 mmt
11/30/12 China's grain output rose 3.2% YoY to hit 589.57 million tonnes in 2012, marking the ninth consecutive year of growth, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Friday. The corn output amounted to 208.12 million tonnes, up 8 % YoY, while that of rice and wheat gained 1.6% and 2.7%, respectively, to 204.29 million tonnes and 120.58 million tonnes, according to the NBS' online statement. These numbers show that corn has replaced wheat as China's largest grain variety, the statement said.
China will strive to foster 100 agricultural companies with annual sales exceeding 10 billion yuan (1.59 billion U.S. dollars) in the next three to five years, a senior agricultural official said. Acquisitions and mergers will be encouraged in the hope that the resulting agricultural conglomerates can act as a potent force in the country's agricultural modernization, while calling for more favorable fiscal and tax policies to support the development of big farming
11/4/12 QT Weather: As East floods. C Plains turning into a desert.
Chinas soybean production is expected to decline 11.6%.The Des Moines Register reported that 80 acres of farmland in Sioux County Iowa sold for a record $21,900 per acre. The farm reportedly has a routine yield of 200 bushels per acre of corn and 60 bushels per acre of soybeans Thursday's sale exceeds the old Iowa land sale record of last year at $20,000 per acre. (Looks like some iffy $200,000 per year less expenses/taxes - market/weather risk?)
10/21/12 Kiev’s move to halt wheat exports from November 15 is the first by a leading food exporting country this year and raises spectre of 2007-08 food crisis.
(Reuters) -
The drought that ravaged the United States this year does not appear to be abating and may spread through the winter, government forecasters said on Thursday.
7/27/12 Midwest drought brings fourth smallest Gulf of Mexico ‘Dead Zone’ since 1985 - http://1.usa.gov/MKB38i
Des Moines Register: Doane Agricultural Services of St. Louis reported from its annual crop tour through Iowa this week that the likely corn yield will be 117 bushels per acre in Iowa. That total production figure would be the lowest total production in Iowa since the 1.426 billion bushels in 1995 and the lowest bushel per acre figure since the 84 bushels in the flood year of 1993. In 2011, Iowa produced 2.36 billion bushels of corn
5/12/12 USDA estimates soybean stocks to use at 4.4%. This is equivalent to two weeks' worth of use, and the lowest stocks-to-use figure since 1965-66.
4/24/12 Oil World reduced estimates of Argentina’s soy crop to 42.5 mmt, down from the USDA’s 45 mmt and down 1.5 mmt from its previous estimate.
4/20/12 A prominent Chinese think tank issued a forecast saying China's grain output is likely to grow for the ninth consecutive year in 2012. (Good thing the weather doesn’t have a memory, or the odds of that happening would be slim)
3/16/12 (Arlan Suderman) Chinese Sept corn futures hit record high of $10.03 per bushel; Oh yeah, supplies are adequate.
U.S. Corn (almost) and Beans at six month high.
12/9/2011 The USDA estimates the soybean surplus to be up 18% from last month. Ending stocks are expected to be 230 million bushel. That's about a 28 day supply.
12/6/11 Martell Crop Projections, warned that "intense heat and moisture stress has developed in moisture stress has developed in a swathe of South America of the past month", citing Bolivia and northern Paraguay, but most notably Brazil's top soybean-producing state of Mato Grosso.
9/27/11 Oil World warned that the current La Nina weather pattern has put Brazil's soybean crop, the world's second biggest, in jeopardy.
8/22/11 U.S. feedlots placement at 2.15m cattle last month is up 22% YoY.  
7/7/11 Pork prices are at a seven year high in China and are probably stimulating expansion -- need for soy meal and corn?
4/21/11 (Reuters) - Babies exposed to pesticides before birth may have significantly lower intelligence scores by age 7 than children who were not exposed, three separate studies published on Thursday said.
4/20/11 The International Grains Council estimates grain stocks at a four-year low of 334m tonnes or 18.4% of consumption, down from 23% two seasons ago. Wheat has been paying attention to dry conditions in the US, the EU, Russia and China, and wet weather in northern America and Canada. India is the only top-five wheat producer with no weather problems. The council lowered world corn inventories by 8m tonnes, and expressed concerns about declining supplies of high-protein milling wheat.
4/18/11 (Bloomberg) China’s farmland shrank by 8.33 million hectares (20.6 million acres) in the past 12 years, Premier Wen Jiabao’s top agriculture adviser Chen Xiwen told reporters March 24
4/17/11 The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the combined stocks of nine edible  oils will fall 25 % to 9.39 million metric tons this year, or about 23 days of demand, the fewest since 1974.
4/11/11  (Bloomberg) -- All the soybeans in Iowa won’t be enough to meet the anticipated surge in China’s imports over the next four years as the nation feeds a record pig herd and drives bean prices to an all-time high.
4/8/11  The USDA Estimates:
Wheat ending stocks of 839 million bushels, against trade estimate of 857 million and 843 million last month. World ending stocks rose to 182.8 MT against the 182 MMT estimated and 181.9 MMT in March.
USDA pegs texas wheat crop at 64.8 mln bushels, down 49% YoY Corn ending stocks unchanged at 675 million bushels, against trade estimate of 586 million. World ending stocks came in at 122.4 MT against 121 MMT estimated and 123 MMT in March. Brazil's corn crop was estimated at 52 MMT, 2 MMT up from last month. Argentine output unchanged at 22 MMT.
Soybeans ending stocks estimate  unchanged  at 140 million bushels, against the average trade estimate of 137 million. World ending stocks estimate at 60.9 MT against 58.9 MMT and 58.3 MMT in March. Brazilian output was raised 2 MMT to 72 MMT. Argentine production was left unchanged at 49.5 MMT, as was China’s at 15.2 MMT.
2/31/11 (Dow Jones) The USDA's lower-than-expected estimate for corn inventories as of March 1 fuels fears that season-end supplies will drop to a record low. Government could slash 50M-75M bushels from the latest season-end supply estimate of 675M in a crop report next week, says Rich Nelson at Allendale. Season-end supplies are already at a 15-year low, representing 18 days worth of corn, he notes.
2/13/11 Rabobank anticipates US soy oil stocks will end 2010-11(September) at 5.4% stock to use ratio, the lowest level in 34 years.
2/9/11 The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its projection for the U.S. corn end of year supplies 70 million bushels to 675 million = BULLISH 18.2-day supply.
The USDA estimated world corn ending stocks at 122.51 million metric tons, down from 127 million reported in January = a 37-year low
USDA projected 2010-11 soybean ending stocks of 140 million bushels, unchanged from the January estimate.
USDA U.S. Carryout
Soybeans 0.140
Corn 0.675
Wheat 0.818
Cotton 1.90
Rice 52.8
USDA World Carryover
Wheat 177.8
Corn 122.5   = 54.3-day supply, tightest in the last 37 years
Soybeans 58.2
Cotton 42.8
Rice 93.9
2/8/11 Elwynn Taylor: Dr. Wolter gives La Nina a 50%+ chance of lasting through 2011, for now the likely US corn yield stands at 155BPA, next update is 5 March.
2/7/11 Celeres estimates Brazils 2010-11 soy crop at 69.8 MT.  
2/1/11 Arlan Suderman soybean comments: This year's domestic stocks are estimated to be just 140 million bushels or a 15-day supply; the tightest of the past 40 years.
1/26/11 (Dow Jones)--China's grain demand will likely increase by 4 million metric tons a year over the next five years, while supply of agricultural products in China will face huge pressure, Vice Agricultural Minister Chen Xiaohu said Thursday.
1/21/11 1/21/11 The International Grains Council estimates 2010-11 record-high world rice production, up 2.8% YoY.
IGC says world wheat stocks for 2010-11 are higher at 185 million metric tons.
IGC 2010-11 world corn production was dropped 1.0 million metric tons, with losses in the U.S. and Argentina.
(Dow Jones)--Brazil's 2010-11 soy crop may reach a record after recent rains in Rio Grande do Sul state, according to an analyst at Informa Economics FNP.
Informa U.S. acreage estimates for 2011:
Corn=90.9 million up from Dec. estimate of 90.76.
Soybeans=76.65 million down from Dec. estimate 77.57.
Wheat=40.99 million up from 39.502 in Dec.
Cotton=13.34 million up from 294,000 in Dec.
Soybean oil is supported by ongoing concerns about heavy rains hurting palm oil output in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's top two producers.
1/14/11 The USDA estimates the 2010 corn crop at 12.447 billion bushels on yield of 152.8 bushels per acre, down from its prev. estimate of 12.54 billion on a yield of 154.3 bushels per acre. This implies domestic ending stocks are at a 20.2 day supply -- the 2nd tightest in 50 years.
The USDA estimates the 2010 Soybean crop at 3.329 billion bushels on yield of 43.5 bushels per acre, down 30 million from its previous estimate. This implies a 15.2-day supply -- the tightest in 40 years.
12/20/10 China's soybean imports in November rose 47% compared with October and 90% YoY, to 5.48 million metric tons, the General Administration of Customs said Tuesday. Total imports from January to November increased 31% to 49.4 million tons.
Indonesia will raise a tax on crude palm oil exports to 20% for January from 15% this month
12/17/10 (Bloomberg) Informa Economics Inc. said farmers will plant corn on 90.755 million acres, less than a November forecast of 93.055 million. Soybeans will be sown on 77.565 million, down from a record 77.714 million this year, the Memphis-based researcher said today in a report. Informa said farmers may plant the most acres of cotton in five years, after prices jumped to a record.
Elwynn Taylor: The La Niña to date is tracking the 1973-4 event, a Risk factor for 2011
12/11/10 The USDA raised projected Corn ending stocks by 5 million to 832 million bushels.
The USDA has Soybean ending stocks to just 165 million bushels. That represents a 18-day supply.
The USDA estimates wheat ending stocks to 858 million bushels.
11/26/10 (Reuters) - Argentina's 2010/11 soy output is estimated at 49.5 million tons down from 54.5 MMT last year.
10/17/10 Elwyn Taylor on Twitter: Omen? La Niña development to date is most like 1973, the next year (1974) was not good for US corn.
10/13/10 China imported 40.16 million metric tons of soybeans in the first nine months of the year, up 24.1% on year.
A La Nina event, which has brought wet weather to Australia and drought to Brazil, has strengthened, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.The La Niña in the Pacific remains a moderate to strong event. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value of +25 for September was its highest monthly value since 1973.
10/8/10 The USDA pegged corn production at 12.664 billion bushels, down from 13.160 billion last months and 147 million bushels below trade estimates. Corn yields were pegged at 155.8 bpa. Corn ending stocks fell to 902 million bu, down from 1.708 million last year .These numbers s represent 57.8 days of supply -- the second tightest in the past 35 years.
The USDA pegged wheat stocks at 853 million bushels down from 902 million last month
The USAD pegged the soybean crop at 3.408 billion bushels and a yield of 44.4bpa. That's down from 3.483 billion and 44.7bpa last month. Ending stocks are now at 265 million down from 350 million last month.
Ukraine will limit grain exports for the rest of this year, but needs a few days to clarify.
Indonesia, the world’s third-largest rice producer, may have to import 300,000 metric tons of the grain, the first bulk purchase since 2007, to meet an expected shortfall in government supplies, Bulog executives said.
9/30/10 Soybean inventories on Sept. 1 totaled 151 million bushels, up from 150 million estimated on Sept. 10 and the 138 million bushels on hand a year earlier, the USDA said.
Corn stockpiles on Sept. 1 totaled 1.708 billion bushels, up from 1.673 billion a year earlier Corn usage in the three months ended Aug. 31 was 2.6 billion bushels, up from 2.59 billion a year earlier, the USDA said.
9/29/10 The La Nina weather event has strengthened even further and looks likely to last into early 2011, the government's Bureau of Meteorology reported Tuesday.
Ukraine grain export restrictions are possible, news items say..
9/10/10 The USDA's estmates:
Corn production at 13.160 billion bushels
Corn yield at 162.5 vs. the trade's guess of 163.1 bu. per acre
U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.116 billion bushels vs. the trade's guess of 1.125 billion bushels for 2010-11
Soybean production at 3.483 billion bushels
Soybean yield at 44.7 vs. the trade's guess of 43.8 bu. per acre.
U.S. soybean end stocks at 350 vs. the trade's guess of 304 million bushels
Wheat ending stocks 902 mln bu, downn 50 mln from Aug.
9/9/10 Russia may follow up its ban on grain exports with curbs on shipments of rapeseed and sunflower seed and oil.
8/27/10 Sudden death syndrome disease is spreading in Iowa and Illinois.  
8/20/10 Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour said it pegged the 2010-11 U.S. crops at 3.5 billion bushels, above USDA's August estimate of 3.4 billion.
Statistics Canada exceeded expectations by estimating the 2010-11 all-wheat crops at 22.7 million tons.
8/17/10 (Arlan Suderman)  Iowa State plant pathologist says "over 50%" of Iowa soybean fields affected by Sudden Death Syndrome this year.
7/16/10 China's July soybean imports will be 5.8 million metric tons, up 32% YoY, China's Ministry of Commerce reports Thursday
7/9/10 The USDA's U.S. 2010-2011 ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was lowered from 1.573 to 1.373 billion bushels.
Soybeans were kept at 360 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from .991 to 1.093 billion bushels.
The USDA's world 2010-2011 ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was lowered from 147 to 141 million tons. Versus the average analyst estimate of 1.404 billion bushels and the June estimate of 1.603 billion bushels.
Soybeans were raised from 67 to 68 million tons.
Wheat was lowered from 194 to 187 million tons.
7/8/10 Russia cut its forecast for this year's grain output to 85 million tonnes from 90 million as 14 key growing regions declared a state of emergency due to severe drought.
(Bloomberg) -- China, the world’s second-largest corn consumer, may give up efforts to be self-sufficient in the commodity and boost imports 10-fold by 2015 to feed livestock, said a researcher at Japan’s biggest grain trader.
6/30/10 The USDA estimated the 2010 planted area for:
Corn at 87.87 million acres, up almost 2% YoY
Soybeans at 78.87 million acres, up 2% YoY
All wheat at 54.31 million acres, down 8% YoY
Spring wheat at 13.91 million acres, up 5% YoY
Cotton at 10.91 million acres, up 19% YoY
Oats 3.176 million (the lowest on record)
Rice at 3.512 million acres up from 3.411 million
As of June 1, the USDA estimates stocks of:
Corn at 4.31 billion bushels -- up 1% YoY
Soybeans at 571 million bushels -- down 4% YoY
All wheat at 973 million bushels -- up 48% YoY
Rice at 57.4 million hundredweight -- up from 48.4 YoY
6/10/10 The USDA's 2010-2011 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was lowered from 1.818 to 1.573 billion bushels.
Soybeans were lowered from 365 to 360 million bushels.
Wheat was reduced from 997 to 991 million bushels.
Sugar was lowered from 844,000 to 764,000 short tons.
Cotton was lowered from 3.0 to 2.8 million bales.
The USDA's 2010-2011 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was lowered from 154 to 147 million tons.
Soybeans were raised from 66 to 67 million tons.
Wheat was lowered from 198 to 194 million tons.
Cotton was lowered slightly from 50.1 to 49.6 million bales.
6/2/10 (ISU) It is likely that La Niña conditions will be reached during the month of June. This would indicate a substantial increase in corn yield risk for the U.S. , shifting the likely hood of a below trend yield from about 50/50 to 70%. Most of the risk increase would be in the central and eastern areas of the Corn Belt. E. Taylor  
4/9/10 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was increased from 1.799 to 1.899 billion bushels.
Soybeans remained at 190 million bushels.
Wheat was reduced from 1,001 to 950 million bushels.
Sugar was increased from 1.075 to 1.218 million tons.
Cotton was reduced from 3.20 to 3.00 million bales.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was increased from 140 to 144 million tons.
Soybeans were increased from 61 to 63 million tons.
Wheat was reduced from 197 to 196 million tons.
Cotton was reduced slightly to 51 million tons.
2/9/10  The USDA estimates 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks for:
Soybeans were reduced from 245 to 210 million bushels.
The USDA estimates 2009-2010 world ending stocks for:
Soybeans were reduced from 59.8 to 59.7 million tons.
The USDA estimate of the Brazil's soybean crop was raised from 65 to 66 million tons.
The USDA estimate of the Argentinean soy crop was kept at 53 million tons.
National Commodities Supply Corp., or Conab, on Tuesday pegged Brazil's 2009-10 soy crop at 66.7 million metric tons. Conab's fifth crop estimate for the record-breaking 2009-10 soy crop is 16.7% above the 2008-09 crop of 57.2 million tons
Argentina, the world’s second- and third-largest producers, threatening record crops.
1/12/10 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was raised from 1.675 to 1.764 billion bushels.Yields were the culprit, coming in at 165.2 bu/acre, from 162.9 bu/acre last month and 0.7 bu/acre above the highest trade estimate.
Soybeans were reduced from 255 to 245 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 900 to 976 million bushels.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was raised from 132 to 136 million tons.
Soybeans were raised from 57 to 60 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 191 to 196 million tons.
ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was raised from 1.625 to 1.675 billion bushels.
Some 12% of the crop is still sitting in the snow!
Soybeans were reduced from 270 to 255 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 885 to 900 million bushels.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was kept at 132 million tons.
Soybeans were kept at 57 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 188 to 191 million tons.
Cotton was lowered from 54 to 52 million tons.
11/19/09 The early start to the rainy season this year in Brazil has heightened concerns that Asian soybean rust could vex farmers more than usual. The first incident of the disease for the 2009-10 crop year was discovered Wednesday in Mato Grosso, Brazil's No. 1 soybean producing state.
11/10/09 USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was lowered from 1.672 to 1.625 billion bushels. (46 day supply)
Soybeans were raised from 230 to 270 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 864 to 885 million bushels. (145 day supply)
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was lowered from 136 to 132 million tons. (60 day supply)
Soybeans were raised from 55 to 57 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 187 to 188 million tons.
11/4/09 Informa estimates the US corn crop at 13.064 billion bushels with a yield of 164.8 bushels per acre
Informa estimates the US bean crop at 3.333 billion bushels with a bpa of 42.4.
The last USDA estimate, in Oct, was 13.018 billion corn with a 164.2 bpa and 3.250 billion beans with a 42.4 bpa.
Last month, Informa estimated the corn crop at 13.127 with a 164.7 bpa and the bean crop at 3.250 billion with a 44 bpa.
10/21/09 Argentine farmers will plant a record 19 million hectares with soybeans this season, up from the previous high mark by 7%, the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchangesaid.
They forecasts 2009-10 wheat production at 7.5 million metric tons. Down sharply from the five year average of 14.8 million tons
10/9/09 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was raised from 1.635 to 1.672 billion bushels.
Soybeans were raised from 220 to 230 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 743 to 864 million bushels.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was lowered from 139 to 136 million tons.
Soybeans were raised from 51 to 55 million tons.
Wheat unchanged at 187 million tons.
Cotton unchanged at 56 million tons.
10/7/09 Conab, the Brazilian version of the USDA, estimates the upcoming bean crop at 62.3-63.3 million tonnes versus 57.1 million last year. They put the corn crop at 50.9-52.2 million tonnes vs 51 million last year. Conab's wheat guess is 5.25 million tonnes versus their September guess of 5.85 million.
9/30/09 The USDA estimated U.S. soybean stocks at 138 million bushels, vs. 111 million expected.
The USDA pegged U.S. corn stocks at 1.674 billion bushels vs. 1.719 billion expected
The USDA estimates wheat stocks at 2.215 billion bushels compared to the average analyst’s estimate of 2.132 billion bushels.
9/18/09 China buys another 6.7 million bushels of US soybeans. Analyst says recent frost cut 110 mln bu from China's soy crop
9/3/09 Informa's September guess:
13.010 billion bushels for corn
3.305 billion for beans
corn yield of 162.6 bushels per acre
bean yield of 43.1.
In August the USDA estimated:
corn crop at 12.761 billion with a yield of 159.5
bean crop of 3.199 billion with a 41.7 yield.
8/23/09 China imported 160 mln bu of soybeans in July; up 25% YoY.
8/12/09 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 1.550 to 1.621 billion bushels.
Soybeans lowered from 250 to 210 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 706 to 743 million bushels.
Sugar was reaised from 359,000 to 709,000 tons.
Cotton unchanged at 5.60 million bales.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 139 to 141 million tons.
Soybeans lowered from 52 to 50 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 181 to 184 million tons.
Cotton was lowered from 58 to 57 million bales.
8/11/09 China's domestic soybean output growth can't match the rate of rising demand, so imports will continue to rise, a government official said Tuesday. China's soybean imports this year will likely total around 40 million metric tons, compared with 37.44 million tons last year, according to General Administration of Customs data. In the January-July period, China imported 26.48 million tons of soybeans, up 28% YoY
7/10/09 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 1.09 to 1.55 billion bushels.
Soybeans were raised from 210 to 250 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 647 to 706 million bushels.
Sugar was lowered from 459,000 to 359,000 tons.
Cotton unchanged at 5.60 million bales.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 125 to 139 million tons.
Soybeans were raised from 51 to 52 million tons.
Wheat was lowered from 183 to 181 million tons.
Cotton was raised from 57 to 58 million tons.
7/2/09 “More evidence of a developing El Niño event has emerged during the past fortnight, and computer forecasts show there’s very little chance of the development stalling or reversing,” Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said in a report.
6/30/09 The USDA said:
87.03 million acres of corn were planted – above trade estimates.
77.48 million acres of soybeans were planted -- less than expected.
59.78 million acres of wheat were planted – above trade estimates.
The USDA said June grain stocks for:
Corn were 4.27 billion bushels – modestly above trade estimates.
Soybeans were 597 million bushels, modestly above trade estimates.
Wheat were 667 million bushels.
6/15/09 142.2 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in May, 6% more than in April and more than expected. Soybean crush must average only 125 million bushels per month in June, August and September to reach the USDA target; which is 10 million below the seasonal pace.
6/10/09 The Department of Agriculture said by August 31 soybean stocks  would fall to 110m bushels, the lowest since stocks dropped to 103m bushels in 1976-77.
6/10/09 USDA’s 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimates:
Corn was lowered from 1.145 to 1.090 billion bushels.
Soybeans were lowered from 230 to 210 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 637 to 647 million bushels.
Sugar was raised from 289,000 to 459,000 tons.
Cotton was unchanged at 5.60 million bales.
USDA’s 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimates:
Corn was lowered from 128 to 125 million tons.
Soybeans were lowered from 52 to 51 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 182 to 183 million tons.
Cotton was lowered from 58 to 57 million tons.
5/18/09 The USDA said:
62% of corn was planted, down from the five-year average of 85%.
25% of soybeans were planted, down from the five-year average of 44%.
50% of spring wheat was planted, down from the five year average of 90%.
42% of cotton was planted, down from the five year average of 53%.
5/12/09 The USDA estimates 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks of:
Corn at 1.145 billion bushels, down from 1.600 billion bushels in 2008-2009.
Soybeans at 230 million bushels, up from 130 million bushels in 2008-2009.
Wheat at 637 million bushels, down from 669 million bushels in 2008-2009.
Sugar at 289,000 tons, down from 1.192 million tons in 2008-2009.
Cotton at 5.6 million bales, down from 6.8 million bales in 2008-2009.
The USDA estimates 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Corn at 128 million tons, down from 140 million tons in 2008-2009.
Soybeans at 52 million tons, up from 43 million tons in 2008-2009.
Wheat at 182 million tons, up from 167 million tons in 2008-2009.
Cotton at 58 million bales, down from 62 million bales in 2008-2009
4/29/09 The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange pegged this year's soybean crop at just 1.249 billion bushels, down 184 million from USDA's latest estimate.
4/9/09 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was lowered from 1.74 to 1.70 billion bushels.
Soybeans were lowered from 185 to 165 million bushels.
Wheat was reduced from 712 to 696 million bushels.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was reduced from 145 to 143 million tons.
Soybeans were lowered from 50 to 46 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 156 to 158 million tons.
The USDA reduced its guess of Argentina's soybean crop from 43 to 39 million tons
3/31/09 The USDA said March 1st stocks of:
Corn totaled 6.96 billion bushels, up 1% YoY.
Soybeans totaled 1.30 billion bushels, down 9% YoY.
Wheat totaled 1.04 billion bushels, up 46% YoY.
The USDA said, in 2009, U.S. farmers intend to plant:
84.99 million acres of corn, down 1% YoY.
76.02 million acres of soybeans.
58.64 million acres of wheat, down 7% YoY
8.81 million acres of cotton, down 7% YoY.
3/12/09 The China National Grain and Oils Information Center expects the country's output of grains in 2009 to be lower for the first time in six years.
It projects wheat output to be down 1.3% to 111 million metric tons
It projects corn output to be down 1.5% to 163 million tons
It projects soybean output down 3.2% to 15 million tons
3/11/09 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Soybeans were lowered from 210 to 185 million bushels.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
Soybeans unchanged at 50 million tons.
2/10/09 The USDA estimates U.S. 2008-2009 ending stocks of:
Corn unchanged at 1.790 billion bushels.
Soybeans lowered from 225 to 210 million bushels.
Wheat unchanged at 655 million bushels.
Sugar was reduced from 1.072 to 1.066 million tons.
Cotton was raised from 6.90 to 7.70 million bales.
The USDA estimates 2008-2009 ending stocks of:
Corn was raised from 136 to 137 million tons.
Soybeans were reduced from 54 to 50 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 148 to 150 million tons.
Cotton was raised from 59 to 62 million tons.
2/5/09 The USDA estimates Argentina's soybean crop at 42.5 million tons, down from the January 12th estimate of 49.5 million tons.
1/11/09 The USDA's 2008-2009 ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 1.474 to 1.790 million bushels.
Soybeans were raised from 205 to 225 million bushels.
Wheat was increased from 623 to 655 million bushels.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was increased from 124 to 136 million tons.
Soybeans were unchanged at 54 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 147 to 148 million tons.

The USDA said 42.1 million acres of winter wheat were planted last fall, down 9% YoY
Corn fell the exchange limit in Chicago and soybeans and wheat also plummeted on the news.
As of December, the USDA said there were:
10.1 billion bushels of corn stocks, up 2% YoY.
2.28 billion bushels of soybean stocks, down 4% YoY.
1.42 billion bushels of wheat stocks, up 26% YoY.
12/11/2008 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 1.124 to 1.474 million bushels, more than expected.
Soybeans unchanged at 205 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 603 to 623 million bushels.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 110 to 124 million tons.
Soybeans unchanged at 54 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 145 to 147 million tons.
11/10/2008 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was increased from 1.088 to 1.124 billion bushels.
Soybeans unchanged at 205 million bushels.
Wheat was increased from 601 to 603 million bushels.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was increased from 106 to 110 million tons.
Soybeans were reduced, from 54.3 to 54.1 million tons.
Wheat was increased from 144 to 145 million tons.
The USDA estimates Brazil’s and Argentina's soybean production up 3%, down from last month's estimate of up 5%.
11/6/08 Brazil's Ag Ministry dropped their projection for their 2008/09 (Oct/Sept) soybean crop to 58.4-59.3 million tonness from October's forecast of 60.10-61.27 million tonnes.
11/4/08 The cost of production for Brazilian soybeans, produced in Mato Grosso, is estimates in a range of $8.27 to 9.19 with transportation costs adding $2.50-3.25 per bushel. This means farmers will need to see a board price north of $11.00 per bushel in the May 09 forward futures in order to lock in a positive return.
10/28/08 Because of a computer error the USDA issued new supply and demand estimates for 2008-2009 corn and soybeans.
Corn was reduced from 1.154 to 1.088 billion bushels.
Soybeans were reduced from 220 to 205 million bushels.
10/21/08 China intends to set up a soybean reserve of up to 1.5 million tonnes.
10/8/2008 (Bloomberg) Exports of palm oil from Indonesia, the largest producer, may decline by as much as 1.5 million metric tons a year after the nation made the use of renewable energy mandatory, a government official said.
9/30/08 The USDA said as of September 1st, stocks of:
Corn totaled 1.624 billion bushels.
Soybeans totaled 205 million bushels.
Wheat totaled 1.857 billion bushels.
9/12/08 The USDA's U.S. 2008-2009 ending stocks estimate for:
Soybeans unchanged at 135 million bushels.
The USDA's world 2008-2009 ending stocks estimate for:
Soybeans were increased from 49 to 51 million tons.
7/12/08 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks guess for:
Corn was raised from 833 to 1,133 million bushels, more than expected. (Take notice when a bearish report fails to produce its expected results)
Soybeans were reduced from 140 to 135 million bushels.
Wheat was increased from 537 to 574 million bushels.
Sugar was increased from 607,000 to 767,000 short tons.
Cotton was reduced from 5.30 to 4.60 million bales.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks guess for:
Corn was raised from 105 to 112 million tons.
Soybeans were increased slightly from 48.9 to 49.3 million tons.
Wheat was increased from 133 to 136 million tons.
Cotton was reduced from 53 to 51 million bales.
7/6/08 India may increase edible oil imports by more than 80 % in the four months to October.
Argentina's House approved the president's sliding-scale grain and soybean export tax plan Saturday, sending the bill to the Senate for a vote. However, farm groups have warned that a Congressional endorsement of the tax may lead them to go back on strike.
6/30/08 The USDA estimated 74.53 million acres of soybeans were planted, up 17% YoY.
USDA quarterly grain stocks report 676 million bushels of soybeans, down 38% YoY.
6/24/08 Stats Canada estimated:
25.1 million acres of wheat were planted, up 16% YoY.
15.8 million acres of canola were planted, up 7% YoY.
2.97 million acres of corn were planted, down 13% YoY.
2.99 million acres of soybeans were planted, up 3% YoY.
6/10/08 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Soybeans were reduced from 185 to 175 billion bushels.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for Soybeans were estimated at 50.4 million tons.
5/27/08 China may reduce soybean-oil import tariffs from the current 9% to boost domestic supply, analysts said.
4/9/08 The USDA's estimate for 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of:
Soybeans were raised from 140 to 160 million bushels.
The USDA's estimate for 2007-2008 world ending stocks of:
Soybeans were increased from 47.4 to 49.3 million tons.
3/31/08 In 2008 the USDA expects farmers to plant 74.8 million acres of soybeans, up 18% YoY
The USDA said, as of March 1st, U.S. stocks of Soybeans totaled 1.43 billion bushels, down 20% YoY.
2/21/08 The USDA said that its 2008 preliminary planting estimate for:
Soybeans are 71 million acres, up 12% from the previous year.
2/14/08 Thailand has started requiring that all its diesel fuel include a component made from palm oil, a move that could reduce costly energy imports but is driving up prices for the commodity.
Grain and oilseed prices rose on fresh signs of demand and shrinking supply. Almost half of China’s autumn and winter rapeseed crop was negatively affected by the recent rain and snow storms, the China National Grain & Oils Information Center said.
2/8/08 The USDA's estimate of 2007-2008 world ending stocks of Soybeans were lowered from 46.2 to 45.8 million tons.
2/8/08 The USDA's estimate of 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of Soybeans were lowered from 175 to 160 million bushels.
1/17/08 (Interfax) according to China customs, China imported 30.8 million tons of soybeans in 2007, up 9% YoY.
11/27/07 China's National Grain and Oil Trade Center sees a 2007 grain and oilseed supply shortfall of 26 million tons.
11/9/07 The USDA's 2007-20008 U.S. ending stocks estimate of
Soybeans were reduced from 215 to 210 million bushels.
The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate of
Soybeans were reduced from 50.8 to 49.4 million tons.
10/17/07 The USDA is reporting the first Asian soybean rust finding in Indiana, in addition to several new cases in Iowa and Missouri
The USDA's 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks estimate of Soybeans are unchanged at 215 million bushels.
The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate of Soybeans increased from 50 to 51 million tons.
9/29/07 The USDA said that, on September 1, 2007 Soybean stocks totaled 573 million bushels, up 27% YoY.
9/17/07 China plans to restrict fuel made from agricultural products and cut import tariffs to reduce food inflation. Corn demand is expected up 14.5% by 2010, while output is expected to rise 3.5%. China's overall inflation rate in August was a 10-year high of 6.5%. China's food-price inflation however was 18.2%, 34.6% for vegetable oils and 495 percent for meat.
8/26/07 Pro Farmer, estimates 2007  U.S. soybean production at 2.658 billion bushels with a per acre yield of 42.0 bushels.
8/10/07 The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate for:Soybeans fell from 51.9 to 51.6 million tons.
8/10/07 The USDA's 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks estimate for: Soybeans fell from 245 to 220 million bushels.
8/8/07 Dow-Jones News said this year's drought in China will mean "China is likely to import millions tons more of soybeans in the coming crop year than earlier expected."
6/29/07 The USDA estimates planted acres of Soybeans at 64.1 million acres, down 15% YoY -- the lowest since 1995.
The USDA estimates June 1, 2007, stocks of Soybeans totaled 1.09 billion bushels, up 10% YoY.
6/26/07 Stats Canada said Canada's farmers planted 2.9 million acres of soybeans, down 3% from a year ago.
6/11/07 The USDA estimates 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of Soybeans remained at 320 million bushels.
The USDA estimates 2007-2008 world ending stocks of Soybeans at 54 million tons, down from 64.
4/10/07 The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate for Soybeans were increased from 57 to 61 million tons.
The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Soybeans were increased from 595 to 615 million bushels.
The estimated soybean production in Argentina was increased from 44.0 to 45.5 million tons.
The estimate for Brazil was increased from 57.0 to 58.8 million tons.
3/30/07 The USDA's Prospective Plantings report expects 67.14 million acres of soybeans, down from 75.5 million acres a year ago. (est. 69.17)
The USDA said that on March 1, 07 there were 1.78 billion bushels of soybean stocks, up 7% YoY.
3/14/07 Asian soybean rust was found in a bin of soybeans that came from southeast Iowa last fall.
3/6/07 At its Outlook Forum, the USDA said they expect 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of Soybeans to fall from 595 to 370 million bushels.
2/9/07 Mato Grosso’s soybean farmers reporting soybean rust so far this year has increased to 1,020, from 613 last year. This after 40 inches of rainfall over the last thirty days.
2/9/07 The USDA's world 2006-2007 ending stock estimate for Soybeans were increased from 56 to 57 million tons
2/9/07 The USDA's U.S. 2006-2007 ending stock estimate for Soybeans were increased from 575 to 595 million bushels.
2/7/07 A leading Asian soybean rust researcher says this year's winter weather likely hasn't knocked out the fungal disease from locations where it’s overwintering in the Southern U.S.
Brazil's Vegetable Oils Industry Association changed their crop forecast to 57.1 million tonnes from 55.8 million tonnes projected in January. This compares with the USDA forecast of 56 million tonnes.
1/12/07 The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate for Soybeans increased to 56 million tons. (stocks/usage 25%)
1/12/07 The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Soybeans were increased from 565 to 575 million bushels. (stocks/usage 19%)
12/11/06 The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate of Soybeans were unchanged at 565 million bushels.
The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate of Soybeans were increased from 55.2 to 55.7 million tons.
10/20/06 Virginia became the 15th U.S. state with Asian rust in its soybean fields. Asian rust may impact spring plating decisions for soybeans.
10/12/06 The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for soybeans were increased from 530 to 555 million bushels.
10/12/06 The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate for soybeans were increased from 52 to 55 million tons.
9/8/06 The USDA said that U.S. 2005-2006 exports of Soybeans finished the year down 15% YoY.
8/12/06 The USDA's U.S. 2006-2007 ending stocks estimate for Soybeans were reduced from 560 to 450 million bushels.
8/12/06 The USDA's world 2006-2007 ending stocks estimate for Soybeans were reduced from 53 to 50 million tons.
6/30/06 The USDA estimated U.S. planted acres this spring 74.9 million acres of soybeans, up 4% from a year ago, but down 3% from the March estimate.
6/30/06 The USDA reported U.S. grains stocks as of June 1st 990 million bushels of soybeans, up 42% from a year ago.
4/10/06 The USDA 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for soybeans were unchanged at 565 million bushels.
The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate forsoybeans were reduced from 54.4 to 53.8 million tons.
The USDA's estimate of Brazil and Argentina's soybean crop was reduced from 3.64 to 3.58 billion bushels, this is still 6% more than last year.
4/3/06 The tiny biodiesel industry received a boost from Big Oil on Monday when a major petroleum refiner, Motiva Enterprises LLC, began blending the soy-based alternative with traditional motor fuel at a Dallas terminal
3/31/06 The USDA's 2006-2007 planting estimate for Soybeans is 76.9 million acres, up 7% YoY and the most on record.
As of March 1st, U.S. grain stocks of Soybeans totaled 1.67 billion bushels, up 21% YoY.
3/10/06 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for soybeans were raised from 555 to 565 million bushels.
1/12/06 The USDA's soybean production estimate for Argentina and Brazil remained at 3.64 billion bushels.
12/9/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate forSoybeans were increased from 47 to 48 million tons.
12/9/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Soybeans were increased from 350 to 405 million bushels.
11/10/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Soybeans increased from 260 to 350 million bushels.
11/3/05 Brazil's 2005-2006 soybean output is likely to reach 56.7 to-58.6 million tons, the Agriculture Ministry forecasting agency said in the first official estimates for next year's crop. Farmers may cut the area planted with soy by as much as 8 percent to 21.5 million hectares. Brazil harvested 51.1 million metric tons this year.
10/27/05 The U.S. Census Bureau said that 133.2 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in September, 2% more than last month. Soybean oil stocks totaled 1.69 billion pounds, down 2% from last month.
10/14/05 The National Oilseed Processors Association said that 127.1 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in September.
10/12/05 USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimates for Soybeans were increased from 205 to 260 million bushels.
10/12/05 Today’s USDA production estimates for Soybeans were increased from 2.856 to 2.967 billion bushels.
09/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. crop estimate for
Soybeans were increased from 2.791 to 2.856 billion bushels.
09/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Soybeans were increased from 180 to 205 million bushels.
07/28/05 The USDA drought monitor shows severe to extreme drought conditions persisting in northern Illinois and northeast Missouri.
07/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Soybeans were reduced from 255 to 210 million bushels.

The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate for
Soybeans were reduced from 52 to 51 million tons.
06/29/05 Soybean imports doubled in May! China, the world's biggest soybean-buyer, bought 2 million metric tons of the oilseed last month, 143 percent more than in May 2004, according to figures released by the Customs General Administration of Customs on Friday. Imports jumped 55 percent in April from a year earlier.
06/17/05 Analytical firm Informa Economics pegged 2005 soybean planted
acreage at 72.91 million acres, down one million from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's March Prospective Plantings report, according to trade sources. Also the eastern half of the Midwest is expecting dry weather to continue through the weekend and perhaps longer.
06/10/05 The USDA's U.S. ending stocks estimate for Soybeans were reduced from 290 to 255 million bushels.
The USDA's world ending stocks estimate for Soybeans were estimated at 52 million tons, up from 47 million tons in 2004-2005.
06/06/05 U.S. Corn and soybeans are entering a critical part of the growing season, when the crops must become established. Most of Illinois received less than 40% of normal precipitation during the March-to-May period, causing moisture supplies to slowly vanish.
05/26/05 The U.S. Census Bureau said that 139.4 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in April.
05/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Soybeans is 290 million bushels, down from 355 million bushels in 2004-2005.
05/09/05 The USDA said that 79% of the corn, 26% of the soybeans, and 39% of the cotton crops were planted. 59% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent, down from 63% a week ago.
04/28/05 The U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday reported U.S. March soybean crush totaled 149.7 million bushels, above the average analyst estimate of 148.7 million bushels.
U.S. March soy oil stocks totaled 1.790 billion pounds, versus analysts estimates of 1.779 billion pounds. Soy meal inventories totaled 251,744 tons versus the average analyst estimate of 316,700 short tons.
04/27/05 Asian soybean rust has been found in Georgia, with a positive identification confirmed Wednesday.
04/25/05 The U.S. Census Bureau is expected to report on Thursday
the U.S. March soybean crush at 148.7 million bushels. If it
does, that would rank as the second highest crush ever for March.
04/14/05 The U.S. Department of Agriculture said that old-crop soybean export sales last week hit a marketing-year low of 128,800 metric tons with China absent from the list of buyers. New-crop sales were 143,600 tons, total soybean sales came to 272,400 tons, which was under pre-report estimates ranging from 350,000 to 550,000 tons.
04/12/2005 AgRural said it forecasts the Brazilian soybean crop at 51.3 million metric tons, down from its previous estimate of 52.3 million tons, due to excessive rain in the main soybean-producing state of Mato Grosso. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has the crop currently figured at 54 million tons.
03/11/05 Brazil's Vegetable Oils Industry Association said that the Soybean crop is only 53.9 million tons.  Southern Brazil is still dry with chances for light showers coming on Sunday.
03/10/05 The USDA's estimate of this spring's soybean crop in Brazil was reduced from 63.0 to 59.0 million tons (2.17 b.bu.), due to dry weather. The soybean estimate for Argentina remained the same, at 39.0 million tons (1.43 b.bu.)
03/10/05 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Soybeans were reduced from 440 to 410 million bushels.
The USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for
Soybeans were reduced from 61 to 56 million tons.
03/07/05 Brazil's 2004-05 soybean crop (October-September) will total 57.0 million metric tons, the Agriculture Ministry said Monday. The latest forecast was down from on the 61.4 million tons predicted in December due to a prolonged drought in southern states
03/04/05 Conditions in southern Brazil remain hot and dry. Dow Jones Newswires quoted Brazilian analysts as saying that the soybean crop would only total 53 million tons (1.95 b. bu)  The USDA estimated 63 million ton (2.31 b. bu)
02/03/05 July soybeans were up 14.75 cents at $6.322, the highest close in six months, continuing to gain on South America's dry weather conditions. Private weather forecasters are pushing rain back in southern Brazil by 24 to 48 hours from prior forecasts.
02/28/05 Federal research tracks Soybean Rust movement  “In preparation for this upcoming soybean planting season, [we] have been designing a sentinel plot system and a monitoring system to see if soybean rust is going to move, where it is going to move in the United States, to be able to detect it early and then intervene wherever necessary,” he said.
02/25/05 The USDA projected the 2005-2006 U.S. soybean harvest at 2.87 billion bushels, resulting in a drop in ending stocks, from 440 to 410 million bushels.  Dry conditions are expected to continue in southern Brazil.
02/24/05 The U.S. Census Bureau said  that 148.5 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in January, less than expected.
02/22/05 AgRural, estimated Brazil's soybean crop at 60 million tons, less than the USDA's most recent estimate of 63 million tons (2.3 billion bushels).
02/18/05 The Brazilian firm, Safras e Mercado, estimated the current soybean crop at 61.2 million tons, less than the USDA's estimate of 63 million tons (1.7 billion bushels).
02/17/05 Soybean traders remain fixated by the possibility that persistent arid weather may be causing yield damage to late-maturing crops in South America.
02/17/05 Compared to one year ago, U.S. exports for Soybeans improved from +5% to +6%.
02/15/05 Brazilian Agriculture Minister Roberto Rodrigues said he is in talks with farmers to seek a WTO probe, known as a panel. The U.S. spent $11 billion on farm subsidies last year to guarantee a minimum price for crops including soybeans, making it difficult for Brazilian farmers to compete, Rodrigues said in an interview in Brasilia.
02/15/05 The National Oilseed Processors Association said that 141 million bushels of U.S. soybeans were crushed in January, down 2 million bushels from the previous month.
02/14/05 Argentina's 2004-05 soy crop is estimated at 37.7 million
tons, the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange said Monday. The USDA currently forecasts the crop at 39 million tons.
02/14/05 State and private forecasters in Brazil said Monday that most of Brazil's keygrowing areas are expected to remain hot and dry through Wednesday.  
02/14/05 Soybeans inspected for export were 26.094 million bushels for the week ended Feb. 10, down from 27.081 million the previous week, the USDA reported. For the current marketing year to date, soybean inspections are 706.47 million bushels, up from 665.36 million last year at this time.
02/09/05 The USDA's soybean production estimate for Brazil and Argentina this spring was reduced slightly from 2.80 to 2.75 billion bushels.
02/09/05 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Soybeans was increased from 435 to 440 million bushels. And the USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for Soybeans was increased slightly to 61.4 million tons.
01/27/05 The U.S. Census Bureau said that 150 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in December, less than expected.
01/21/05 Bird flu problems in southeast Asia are growing worse. Vietnam reported its seventh human fatality due to the flu.
01/12/05 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Soybeans was reduced 25 million bushels to 435 million bushels.
The USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for
Soybeans was increased to 61 million tons.
01/06/05 Compared to one year ago, U.S. exports for
Soybeans improved from +3% to +5%.
01/06/05 the soybean crop in southern Brazil is dry and in need of moisture soon.
01/05/05 The yield-slashing Asian rust soybean fungus has now been identified in 128 municipalities across Brazil's agricultural belt, up from 88 two weeks ago, Dow Jones Newswires reported Wednesday. Seventy-one of the cases were reported in the southern state of Parana, Brazil's second largest soybean producer while 18 cases were reported in the No. 1 state of Mato Grosso.
01/05/05 The USDA said that 116,000 tons of U.S. soybeans were sold to China.
12/14/04 China continues to pull on global commodities with demand for US soybeans rising in 2004/05 by nearly 50 per cent on the previous year.
12/14/04 The Brazilian government said that their 2004-2005 soybean crop will total 61.4 million tons, less than the USDA's 64.5 million ton estimate.
12/10/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Soybeans was unchanged at 460 million bushels.The USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for Soybeans was reduced to 61 million tons. The Report Lacks Surprises
12/01/04 South Carolina and Tennessee became the eighth and ninth U.S. states to confirm the presence of Asian rust in their soybean fields.
11/30/04 Missouri became the seventh U.S. state to discover Asian rust in its soybean fields.
11/22/04 Asian soybean rust was officially discovered in a soybean
sample collected Nov. 18 in northeast Arkansas near the Mississippi River, Dow Jones Newswires reported. The yield-slashing fungus was believed to have been spread by Hurricane Ivan in September. It has already been found in Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida, Georgia and Alabama since Nov. 10.Asian rust was also, again, detected on a soybean plantation in southwestern Parana. The fungus is easily spread  and is believed to be all over Brazil this year.
11/17/04 Florida has found the highly contagious soybean rust fungus in one of its soybean fields on Wednesday, becoming the third infected U.S. state in a week, state officials said.
11/16/04 The USDA said that three more soybean fields in Louisiana and one in Mississippi tested positive for Asian rust, showing that the fungus is spreading quickly.
11/12/04 The USDA's U.S. 2004-2005 production estimate for
Soybeans was increased from 3.107 to 3.150 billion bushels and
the USDA's U.S. 2004-2005 ending stocks estimate for
Soybeans was increased by 55 million bushels to 460 million bushels.
11/10/04 The first case of soybean rust has been found on the mainland United States and could affect U.S. crops for the near future, costing farmers millions of dollars, the Agriculture Department said on Wednesday.
11/10/04  Wednesday, rumors were widespread of soybean rust spores being discovered in the southern Delta Plain states of Louisiana and Arkansas. The rumors have not been confirmed.   
10/11/04 The USDA's world 2004-2005 ending stocks estimates for Soybeans increased from 52 to 59 million tons.
10/11/04 The U.S. 2004-2005 production estimate for Soybeans was increased from 2.836 to a record high 3.107 billion bushels.
10/11/04 he USDA's U.S. 2004-2005 ending stocks estimates for Soybeans were increased 215 million bushels to 405 million bushels.
10/07/04 Compared to one year ago, U.S. 2004-2005 exports for Soybeans improved from +40% to +47%.
09/29/04 China said that they will burn a cargo  of soybeans from Argentina that tested positive for fungicide.
09/10/04 The USDA estimates of 2004-2005 world ending stocks for
Soybeans were increased 2 million tons to 52 million tons.
09/10/04 The USDA estimates of 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks for
Soybeans were unchanged at 190 million bushels.
08/23/04 Asian rust fungus has been found in Columbia
07/12/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 estimate of world ending stocks for
Soybeans increased  to 47 million tons.
07/12/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. production estimate for
Soybeans is 2.94 billion bushels, a new record high.
07/12/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 estimates of U.S. ending stocks for
Soybeans were reduced by 10 million bushels to 210 million bushels.
06/30/04  USDA's U.S. soybean inventories as of June 1 were  at 410 million bushels, soybean acreage in the U.S. was revised downward to 74.809 million acres. Last year's acreage were  at 73.404 million.
06/23/04 China has officially ended its ban on South American soybeans.
06/10/04 Brazil and Argentina's current soybean crop was estimated at 3.18 billion bushels. In 2004-2005, Brazil and Argentina are expected to produce a total of 3.86 billion bushels of soybeans, more than the U.S.'s 2.97 billion bushels.
06/10/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimates for Soybeans were increased 30 million bushels to 220 million bushels. World ending stocks estimates for Soybeans were set at 47 million tons, up from 32 million tons in 2003-2004.
06/01/04 An industry source said on Monday that China rejected a third soy cargo from Brazil over the weekend saying it was contaminated with a chemical known as carboxin.
05/27/04 Chinese crushers (unconfirmed)are seeking to delay or cancel a reported 20-30 cargoes (1.1-1.65 MMT)as they are still at a high risk of defaulting on soybeans.
05/27/04 Brazil's IBGE estimated this years  soybean crop at 50.02 MMT, down from its prior estimate of 52.6 MMT, and down from last years crop of 51.5 MMT. Planted area  was pegged at 21.2 million hectares, up 15 % from a year earlier of 18.5 million hectares. Yield was pegged at 2.358 kilo versus 2.791 the perv. year
05/27/04 The U.S. Census Bureau said that 112.5 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in April, down 11% from a year ago.
05/25/04 ...let's look at the fundamentals," said another analyst at a Chinese government think-tank, who didn't want to be identified. As China's living standards improve, consumption of edible oil is rising at a pace of 500,000 tons to 700,000 tons a year. (ODJ)
04/30/04 Private Brazilian research Safras lowered its estimate on Brazil's 2003-04 soybean crop to 49.98 million metric tons
04/27/04 The USDA said that the Asian soybean rust fungus could cost U.S. farmers $640-$1.3 billion per year the first year of infestation - should the disease hit the U.S., the USDA views this as likely. The report is on the ERS website. Asian rust fungus has now also been found in the major soybean producing province of Santa Fe in Argentina.
04/27/04 Hamburg-based newsletter Oil World on Tuesday forecast world 2003/04 soybean production at 187 million tonnes, down 9 million tonnes from last year due to disappointing South American crops. That level of production would fail to meet estimated global soybean demand of 197 million tonnes, it said.
04/21/04 Argentina lowered its estimate of their soybean crop to 33 million tons (1.21 b. bu.), less than the USDA's 35 million ton estimate.
04/21/04 Brazilian agricultural consultant AgRural lowered its estimate for Brazil's 2003-04 soybean crop to 49.26 million metric tons due to unfavorable weather conditions in first months of the year
04/16/04 The soybean harvest in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's third largest soybean state, is expected to total 5.4 million tons, down 44% from a year ago due to dry weather.
04/08/04 USDA cut its U.S. 2003/04 (old-crop) soy ending stock estimate to a fresh 27-year low of 115 million bushels, down from an average of analysts' estimates for 125 million and below the USDA's March forecast for 125 million. USDA also trimmed its forecast for Brazilian soy production this year to 56 million tonnes from the March forecast for 59.5 million, and Argentina's crop from 36.5 to 35 million tons.
04/07/04 Brazil's Vegetable Oils Industry Association cut its estimate of Brazil's soybean crop from 56.9 to 52.8 million tons.
03/31/04 As of March 1st, the USDA reported Soybean stocks at 905.5 million bushels, down 25% from a year ago.
03/31/04 The USDA's planting estimates for Soybeans are a record high 75.4 million acres, up almost 3% from a year ago.