When does weather matter for the grain markets

When does weather matter for the grain markets


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WHEN DOES WEATHER MATTER?

How Much Does Weather Matter?

	Wheat	Corn	Oats	Soybeans
January				B
February	M			B
March	M		M	B
April	C!	M	M	M
May	C!	M	M	M
June	C!	M	C!	M
July	M	C!	M	C!
August	M	C!		C!
September	M	C!		C!
October		M		M
November
December				B

M = Time of year weather can be a Major price determining factor.

C! = Time of year weather can be most Critical! Price determining factor.

B = Time of year weather can be a major price determining factor for the Brazilian soybean crop.

Watching The Weather

APRIL

Wheat: Ideal growing conditions are cool and wet which promotes maximum yield potential. Watch for temperatures above 90's during late April as an indicator of crop problems. Generally ignore freeze concerns unless they are in some of the very early crop areas.

MAY

Wheat: Watch for freezing temperatures. This can cause major yield losses as the crop is quite vulnerable to cold weather. Rainfall is of less significance from south to north during the month as the crop heads towards maturity.

JUNE

Wheat: Wet weather is a bullish indicator as it slows the harvest and causes losses by knocking down the mature wheat. Warm, dry weather is favorable for a rapid harvest.

Corn & Soybeans: Warm, moist weather is ideal for rapid development. Unless conditions are very hot and Soybeans: dry during the month, it is difficult to have bullish weather during June.

Oats: This rapidly developing crop can be favorably or unfavorably affected by the weather during just a few weeks. Temps in the 90's along with little rain causes significant stress. Temps of 95-100 degrees frequently during the month can be devastating without significant moisture reserves.

JULY

Corn: This is the critical month, as pollination takes place. Ideal conditions are mild days (80's ) and cool nights (50's). Temps in the 90's are bullish, with readings near 100 degrees very bullish, no matter how moist the soils.

Soybeans: Not a critical month for soybean development unless conditions are quite severe. However, if weather is bullish for corn, soybeans will follow.

AUGUST

Corn: Not as critical a weather month as July. However, if hot, dry weather persists some yield losses are possible due to poor filling of the ears.

Soybeans: The critical month for this crop, as pods form and fill. Ideal conditions are cool and wet. Hot (90's ), dry weather can sharply lower yield prospects. However, the crop is much more forgiving than corn and can wait out stressful weather for more favorable conditions without major losses.

SEPTEMBER

Corn & Soybeans: Cool, wet weather is bullish as it slows down the harvest. Excessive rains can cause Soybeans harvest losses, but warm, dry weather leads to a rapid harvest. Freezing temps are generally not as important as the market makes them appear, since the crops are usually beyond the point where a freeze could cause significant damage