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Isaac Newton can be given credit for the best known Theory on which most technicians operate: "A price trend once established is more likely to continue than to reverse."
(Newton's first law of motion)


Rice Futures




Rice Rough (200 day exponential average red), and 200 day ROC (rate of change) in green.
 
Rice Futures - The Blue line is a Donchian channel, red  line is a 5 day exponential average, green line is a 20 day exponential average. Vertical green bars MACD (Moving average convergence divergence) 5 and 20.
 
Rice (spot) Point & Figure   Box = 3 Reversal = 3
 
Rice recent
 
Rice (World and U.S.) Stock to Use Ratio
 
Rice Notes & Links:
 

Over the past 10 years, rice has cost an average $41 a ton more than wheat, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. (7/15/2010)
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11/18/11 (BBC) Radioactive cesium found in Japans rice.
2/9/11 The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its projection for the U.S. corn end of year supplies 70 million bushels to 675 million = BULLISH 18.2-day supply.
The USDA estimated world corn ending stocks at 122.51 million metric tons, down from 127 million reported in January = a 37-year low
USDA projected 2010-11 soybean ending stocks of 140 million bushels, unchanged from the January estimate.
USDA U.S. Carryout
Soybeans 0.140
Corn 0.675
Wheat 0.818
Cotton 1.90
Rice 52.8
USDA World Carryover
Wheat 177.8
Corn 122.5   = 54.3-day supply, tightest in the last 37 years
Soybeans 58.2
Cotton 42.8
Rice 93.9
2/7/11 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia, the third-biggest rice importer in Asia, is seeking to “strengthen” its stockpiles to protect the poor against rising costs, according to Bayu Krisnamurthi, Deputy Minister of Agriculture.
1/26/11 Bangladesh raised the rice import target to 1.2 million metric tons for the year ending June 30, from 600,000 tons  in November.
(Dow Jones)--China's grain demand will likely increase by 4 million metric tons a year over the next five years, while supply of agricultural products in China will face huge pressure, Vice Agricultural Minister Chen Xiaohu said Thursday.
1/21/11 1/21/11 The International Grains Council estimates 2010-11 record-high world rice production, up 2.8% YoY.
IGC says world wheat stocks for 2010-11 are higher at 185 million metric tons.
IGC 2010-11 world corn production was dropped 1.0 million metric tons, with losses in the U.S. and Argentina.
(Dow Jones)--Brazil's 2010-11 soy crop may reach a record after recent rains in Rio Grande do Sul state, according to an analyst at Informa Economics FNP.
Informa U.S. acreage estimates for 2011:
Corn=90.9 million up from Dec. estimate of 90.76.
Soybeans=76.65 million down from Dec. estimate 77.57.
Wheat=40.99 million up from 39.502 in Dec.
Cotton=13.34 million up from 294,000 in Dec.
Soybean oil is supported by ongoing concerns about heavy rains hurting palm oil output in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's top two producers.
12/19/10 Indonesia has decided to eliminate a duty on rice imports. Indonesia, the world's third-largest rice producer, may have to import 300,000 metric tons of rice to meet an expected shortfall in the government's supplies due to a prolonged rainy season.
11/26/10 The IGC’s estimate for the world rice harvest was kept at a record 449m tonnes.
11/8/10 (Bloomberg) Flooding across more than half of Thailand, the world’s largest rice exporter, may damage 11 percent of the nation’s rice plantation and lower output from the main crop by 3.9 percent, the Farm Ministry said.
10/12/10 (Bloomberg) -- The rice harvest in the U.S., the world’s fourth-largest exporter last year, may be at least 10 percent smaller than estimated.
10/8/10 The USDA pegged corn production at 12.664 billion bushels, down from 13.160 billion last months and 147 million bushels below trade estimates. Corn yields were pegged at 155.8 bpa. Corn ending stocks fell to 902 million bu, down from 1.708 million last year .These numbers s represent 57.8 days of supply -- the second tightest in the past 35 years.
The USDA pegged wheat stocks at 853 million bushels down from 902 million last month
The USAD pegged the soybean crop at 3.408 billion bushels and a yield of 44.4bpa. That's down from 3.483 billion and 44.7bpa last month. Ending stocks are now at 265 million down from 350 million last month.
Ukraine will limit grain exports for the rest of this year, but needs a few days to clarify.
Indonesia, the world’s third-largest rice producer, may have to import 300,000 metric tons of the grain, the first bulk purchase since 2007, to meet an expected shortfall in government supplies, Bulog executives said.
9/29/10 India extended by a year the deadline for tax-free imports of rice to keep prices under check.
9/23/10 The ICG cut its global rice production forecast for 2010-11 by 1.9 million tons to 453.7 million metric tons due to lower-than-expected production in Indonesia and China.
8/27/10 The USDA said rough rice combined stocks total 36.69 million hundredweight. That is "moderately greater" than USDA's 2009-10 ending stocks estimate of 33.9 million hundredweight in its Aug. 12 supply-and-demand report.
8/26/10 The International Grains Council said higher rice production will improve supply and rice ending stocks will rise by a significant 6 million metric tons to 97 million tons in 2010-11.
8/23/10 Flood surges triggered by unprecedented monsoon rains have washed away 15% to 20% of the summer rice crop, which was in the process of being sown, the president of the Pakistan Agricultural Farms Association said.
Vietnam has raised export floor prices for its top quality 5-percent broken grain (Rice)to $430 a tonne from $400 a tonne
7/15/10 (Reuters) Drought caused by a hot spell over the past month has hurt rice fields in central Vietnam, with nearly 100,000 hectares (247,100 acres) destroyed or partly destroyed, a state-run newspaper reported on Thursday.
6/30/10 The USDA estimated the 2010 planted area for:
Rice at 3.512 million acres up from 3.411 million
As of June 1, the USDA estimates stocks of:
Rice at 57.4 million hundredweight -- up from 48.4 YoY
1/25/10 More than half a million hectares of Philippine rice lands are threatened by an El Nino-induced dry spell, the Philippine Department of Agriculture said Tuesday. Drier-than-usual conditions have already been noted in some areas, and based on assessment by the department
12/16/09 India's production of monsoon-sown rice may total 71.65 million metric tons, up from 69.45 million tons estimated last month, the farm ministry said.
11/20/09 Manila Philippines: the usual (annual) rice shortfall is around 1.5 million tons, added to that is the typhoon damage of 850,000 tons, which means our rice imports (next year) will reach around 2.35 million tons," said NFA spokesperson Rex Estoperez
11/16/09 (Bloomberg)The Philippines, the world’s biggest rice buyer, issued its third tender for 2010 supplies after storms damaged crops and the country accelerates imports to secure shipments amid surging prices.. “We have to secure our supplies ahead of everybody else,” Romeo Jimenez, director of the authority, said in a phone interview from Manila today. “India will also be importing rice. Prices will rise.”
11/4/09 (Bloomberg) -- Rice futures in Chicago rose to the highest price in almost 10 months on mounting concern that Indian inventories will trail demand, forcing the world’s second-largest producer to import grain.
Output in India has declined because of adverse weather, and the government plans to buy 26 million metric tons of the grain from farmers this year to bolster domestic stockpiles and avoid food shortages, said Dennis DeLaughter, a rice farmer and the owner of Progressive Farm Marketing in Edna, Texas.
“The government is trying to make sure they don’t have a panic on their hands, so they’re moving rice into the market early to avoid having a run on supplies,” DeLaughter said.
10/29/09 (Bloomberg) -- India, the world’s second-largest rice grower, may become a net importer for the first time in 21 years in 2010, potentially sparking the kind of “panic” that sent prices to records in 2008, a rice expert said.
10/28/09 India is expected to import up to 3.5 million metric tons of ricecoming months,  Dwight Roberts, president and chief executive of the U.S. Rice Producers Association said
10/27/09 (Bloomberg) -- The Philippines, the world’s biggest rice buyer, plans to bring forward imports for 2010 to beat other nations to the market before prices surge and ensure stockpiles aren’t drained, the National Food Authority said.
India eliminates 70% import tax on some rice types
9/23/09 (TET) The rice yield growth in India at current rate is estimated at 1.18% and needs to be accelerated at 1.75% consistently for a decade, otherwise at 1.18% growth rate, India’s rice production would reach at levels of 108 million tones by 2020 against its projected requirement of 118 million tones.
4/23/08 (Bloomberg) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s Sam's Club warehouse unit is restricting purchases of some types of rice to four bags a visit as prices reached a record in Chicago futures trading.
4/4/08 The Philippine government proposed a law that makes the hoarding of rice a crime punishable by life imprisonment.
2/5/08 Thai rice exporters could start defaulting on orders due to rapidly rising domestic rice prices, the Bangkok Post reported.
1/3/08 The Philippines, the world's biggest importer of rice, plan to buy 550,000 metric tons. Global stockpiles of rice are forecast by the USDA to fall to 72.2 million tons by July, the lowest since 1984.
10/14/07 The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects global consumption of rice at 424.7 million tons in 2007 up from 418.4 million tons in 2006. However, global production is expected to rise only marginally to 418.5 million tons in 2007, from 418.2 million tons in 2006.
11/28/05 The USDA 2005/06 U.S. Ending Stocks for Rice Are Projected to Decline 30 Percent to 26.2 Million Cwt U.S. Rice ending stocks for 2005/06 are projected at 26.2 million cwt, down 11.5 million cwt from a year earlier. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 10.6 percent, down from 16.4 percent a year earlier and the lowest since 1980/81.