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Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
Edwin Lefèvre
Jesse Livermore




Wheat Futures



Chicago Wheat from 1969 (200 day exponential average red) and 200 day ROC (rate of change) in green.
 
Chicago Wheat Recent (Spot) (200 day exponential average red) and 200 day ROC (rate of change) in green.
 
Wheat CPI Adjusted Log Chart
 
Wheat Futures - The Blue line is a Donchian channel, red line is a 5 day exponential average, green line is a 20 day exponential average. Vertical green bars MACD (Moving average convergence divergence) 5 and 20.
 
Wheat Chicago Point & Figure (spot) Box = 2 Reversal = 3
 



Wheat World & U.S. Stocks to Use Ratio
 




Wheat Notes & Links:
 

Agriculture On Line

Voice from the Tomb:
Sell March Wheat on January 10,
Buy May Wheat on February 22,  
Sell July Wheat on May 10,  
Buy December Wheat on July 1,
Sell December Wheat on September 10,
Buy March Wheat on November 28.


Yields from spring wheat that is planted after late April begin to decline by a third of a bushel for each day of delay, according to North Dakota State University.

1 Bushel Wheat: = 60 lbs
Wheat bushels to Metric Tons: = Bushels x 0.027216
1 Metric Ton equals: 36.74371 bushels
1 bushels of wheat makes 73 (1 lb) loaves of bread
The results were stunning: The longer rotations produced better yields of both corn and soy, reduced the need for nitrogen fertilizer and herbicides by up to 88 percent, reduced the amounts of toxins in groundwater 200-fold and didn’t reduce profits by a single cent.
The US produced around 8% of the world's wheat crop in 2013, as opposed to 32% of its soybeans and 36% of its corn.
_____________________________________





12/6/2015 The Debt held by U.S. farmers in 2015, expressed in proportion to net income, is estimated at 6.3 to 1. One has to go back to the 1980s to find another 6 to 1.
8/24/13 Soybeans are focused on current weather forecasts (dry) and the perceptions that US production potential is sliding. More upside potential exists, but it is based on weather development.
7/6/13 Ukraine anticipates a 25% increase in wheat output this year •
11/30/12 Last Monday's winter wheat condition report downgraded the crop condition index to a record low of 304.
China's grain output rose 3.2% YoY to hit 589.57 million tonnes in 2012, marking the ninth consecutive year of growth, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Friday. The corn output amounted to 208.12 million tonnes, up 8 % YoY, while that of rice and wheat gained 1.6% and 2.7%, respectively, to 204.29 million tonnes and 120.58 million tonnes, according to the NBS' online statement. These numbers show that corn has replaced wheat as China's largest grain variety, the statement said.
China will strive to foster 100 agricultural companies with annual sales exceeding 10 billion yuan (1.59 billion U.S. dollars) in the next three to five years, a senior agricultural official said. Acquisitions and mergers will be encouraged in the hope that the resulting agricultural conglomerates can act as a potent force in the country's agricultural modernization, while calling for more favorable fiscal and tax policies to support the development of big farming
10/21/12 Kiev’s move to halt wheat exports from November 15 is the first by a leading food exporting country this year and raises spectre of 2007-08 food crisis.
(Reuters) -
The drought that ravaged the United States this year does not appear to be abating and may spread through the winter, government forecasters said on Thursday.
5/17/11 Ukraine may cancel quotas on the exports of wheat in 2010/2011 marketing year, stated Nikolay Azarov, Prime Minister of Ukraine.
4/21/11 (Reuters) - Babies exposed to pesticides before birth may have significantly lower intelligence scores by age 7 than children who were not exposed, three separate studies published on Thursday said.
4/20/11 The International Grains Council estimates grain stocks at a four-year low of 334m tonnes or 18.4% of consumption, down from 23% two seasons ago. Wheat has been paying attention to dry conditions in the US, the EU, Russia and China, and wet weather in northern America and Canada. India is the only top-five wheat producer with no weather problems. The council lowered world corn inventories by 8m tonnes, and expressed concerns about declining supplies of high-protein milling wheat.
4/18/11 (Bloomberg) China’s farmland shrank by 8.33 million hectares (20.6 million acres) in the past 12 years, Premier Wen Jiabao’s top agriculture adviser Chen Xiwen told reporters March 24
4/8/11 The USDA Estimates:
Wheat ending stocks of 839 million bushels, against trade estimate of 857 million and 843 million last month. World ending stocks rose to 182.8 MT against the 182 MMT estimated and 181.9 MMT in March.
USDA pegs texas wheat crop at 64.8 mln bushels, down 49% YoY Corn ending stocks unchanged at 675 million bushels, against trade estimate of 586 million. World ending stocks came in at 122.4 MT against 121 MMT estimated and 123 MMT in March. Brazil's corn crop was estimated at 52 MMT, 2 MMT up from last month. Argentine output unchanged at 22 MMT.
Soybeans ending stocks estimate  unchanged  at 140 million bushels, against the average trade estimate of 137 million. World ending stocks estimate at 60.9 MT against 58.9 MMT and 58.3 MMT in March. Brazilian output was raised 2 MMT to 72 MMT. Argentine production was left unchanged at 49.5 MMT, as was China’s at 15.2 MMT.
2/9/11 The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its projection for the U.S. corn end of year supplies 70 million bushels to 675 million = BULLISH 18.2-day supply.
The USDA estimated world corn ending stocks at 122.51 million metric tons, down from 127 million reported in January = a 37-year low
USDA projected 2010-11 soybean ending stocks of 140 million bushels, unchanged from the January estimate.
USDA U.S. Carryout
Soybeans 0.140
Corn 0.675
Wheat 0.818
Cotton 1.90
Rice 52.8
USDA World Carryover
Wheat 177.8
Corn 122.5   = 54.3-day supply, tightest in the last 37 years
Soybeans 58.2
Cotton 42.8
Rice 93.9
2/8/11 The UN said that China's wheat crop faces a "critical situation" if a drought across most of its range does not break.
(Dow Jones)--Wheat futures on China's Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose sharply Wednesday, climbing 5.4% due to worries that worsening drought conditions could cut into the country's grain output this year.
1/26/11 (Dow Jones)--China's grain demand will likely increase by 4 million metric tons a year over the next five years, while supply of agricultural products in China will face huge pressure, Vice Agricultural Minister Chen Xiaohu said Thursday.
1/21/11 1/21/11 The International Grains Council estimates 2010-11 record-high world rice production, up 2.8% YoY.
IGC says world wheat stocks for 2010-11 are higher at 185 million metric tons.
IGC 2010-11 world corn production was dropped 1.0 million metric tons, with losses in the U.S. and Argentina.
(Dow Jones)--Brazil's 2010-11 soy crop may reach a record after recent rains in Rio Grande do Sul state, according to an analyst at Informa Economics FNP.
Informa U.S. acreage estimates for 2011:
Corn=90.9 million up from Dec. estimate of 90.76.
Soybeans=76.65 million down from Dec. estimate 77.57.
Wheat=40.99 million up from 39.502 in Dec.
Cotton=13.34 million up from 294,000 in Dec.
Soybean oil is supported by ongoing concerns about heavy rains hurting palm oil output in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's top two producers.
1/14/11 Bloomberg) -- India’s government may ban exports of wheat products, reduce taxes on milk powder and bar essential commodities from trading in futures markets as part of steps to slow gains in food inflation, the Economic Times reported.
12/20/10 Severe drought in major wheat production provinces of Henan, Hebei and nhui has sparked supply concerns for 2011.
12/17/10 (Bloomberg) Informa Economics Inc. said farmers will plant corn on 90.755 million acres, less than a November forecast of 93.055 million. Soybeans will be sown on 77.565 million, down from a record 77.714 million this year, the Memphis-based researcher said today in a report. Informa said farmers may plant the most acres of cotton in five years, after prices jumped to a record.
Elwynn Taylor: The La Niña to date is tracking the 1973-4 event, a Risk factor for 2011
12/11/10 The USDA raised projected Corn ending stocks by 5 million to 832 million bushels.
The USDA has Soybean ending stocks to just 165 million bushels. That represents a 18-day supply.
The USDA estimates wheat ending stocks to 858 million bushels.
11/26/10 The IGC left world wheat production estimates unchanged at 644 MMT, but raised consumption by 2 MMT to 660 MMT. Global ending stocks are expected down 16 MMT from last season.
Russia says they will import wheat in 2011.
10/8/10 The USDA pegged corn production at 12.664 billion bushels, down from 13.160 billion last months and 147 million bushels below trade estimates. Corn yields were pegged at 155.8 bpa. Corn ending stocks fell to 902 million bu, down from 1.708 million last year .These numbers s represent 57.8 days of supply -- the second tightest in the past 35 years.
The USDA pegged wheat stocks at 853 million bushels down from 902 million last month
The USAD pegged the soybean crop at 3.408 billion bushels and a yield of 44.4bpa. That's down from 3.483 billion and 44.7bpa last month. Ending stocks are now at 265 million down from 350 million last month.
Ukraine will limit grain exports for the rest of this year, but needs a few days to clarify.
Indonesia, the world’s third-largest rice producer, may have to import 300,000 metric tons of the grain, the first bulk purchase since 2007, to meet an expected shortfall in government supplies, Bulog executives said.
9/29/10 Ukraine grain export restrictions are possible, news items say..
9/26/10 National Australia Bank upgraded its wheat production forecast for this crop year to 23.1 million metric tons from a 22.2 million-ton estimate. The figure remains below the official estimate of 25.1m tonnes announced last week.
(Bloomberg) -- Half of Russian winter-grain plantings, already almost a third lower than last year, failed to sprout or are thin, the national Grain Producers’ Union said.
9/10/10 The USDA's estmates:
Corn production at 13.160 billion bushels
Corn yield at 162.5 vs. the trade's guess of 163.1 bu. per acre
U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.116 billion bushels vs. the trade's guess of 1.125 billion bushels for 2010-11
Soybean production at 3.483 billion bushels
Soybean yield at 44.7 vs. the trade's guess of 43.8 bu. per acre.
U.S. soybean end stocks at 350 vs. the trade's guess of 304 million bushels
Wheat ending stocks 902 mln bu, downn 50 mln from Aug.
8/27/10 USDA's attaché in Moscow pegs 2010-11 Russian wheat production at 41 million tons, 9% below USDA's latest estimate. Traders expect  
Russia will need to increase imports to make up for the shortfall.
The International Grains Council Thursday slashed its forecast for world wheat production and warned of a widening deficit as Russia's livestock industry boosts consumption to record levels. Global wheat production in 2010-11 is expected to hit 644 million metric tons, the IGC said, down 7 million tons from its July estimate and 4.9% lower than last year. World wheat consumption is expected to rise by 2 million tons compared with its previous forecast to a record 657 million tons due to surging consumption in Russia, leaving the market with a deficit of 13 million tons.  
(Bloomberg) -- Germany, the European Union’s second-biggest wheat grower after France, may report a 12 percent drop in grain harvests this year after crops were hit with both drought and flooding, a farmers group said.
8/23/10 Buckwheat disappeared from all food stores across Moscow city, the Interfax news agency reported on Monday. Prices for buckwheat jumped from 20 to 76 rubles (from 0.65 to 2.5 U.S. dollars) per kilogram during the last weekend. The report said buckwheat also disappeared from the supermarkets in Ukraine.
Russia has harvested 40.3 million tonnes of grain by Aug 19, or 38 % less than in 2010, Deputy Agriculture Minister Alexander Petrikov said
8/20/10 Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour said it pegged the 2010-11 U.S. crops at 3.5 billion bushels, above USDA's August estimate of 3.4 billion.
Statistics Canada exceeded expectations by estimating the 2010-11 all-wheat crops at 22.7 million tons.
7/15/10 Wheat contracts hit a seven-month high as 14 regions of the Russian federation declare a state of emergency, with 11 of them seeing half their sown land destroyed. The ongoing drought in Russia is reported to have "killed 52.3 percent of grain seedlings in the Ulyanovsk region," according to a news report by news agency TASS.
7/14/10 7/14/10 Goldman Sachs has upped their 3-month price forecast for grains:
GS sees corn reaching $4.15 vs. their previous estimate of $3.75 per bushel.
6-months out, corn prices are seen reaching $4.50 vs. $4.00.
Soybean 3-month outlook seen at $9.75 v. $9.25,
6-month out GS sees prices reaching $9.50 vs. $9.00.
Wheat 3-month outlook is seen at $5.20 v s. $4.75.
6-month out wheat is seen reaching $5.50 vs. $5.00.
7/9/10 7/9/10 The USDA's U.S. 2010-2011 ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was lowered from 1.573 to 1.373 billion bushels.
Soybeans were kept at 360 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from .991 to 1.093 billion bushels.
The USDA's world 2010-2011 ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was lowered from 147 to 141 million tons. Versus the average analyst estimate of 1.404 billion bushels and the June estimate of 1.603 billion bushels.
Soybeans were raised from 67 to 68 million tons.
Wheat was lowered from 194 to 187 million tons.
7/8/10 Russia cut its forecast for this year's grain output to 85 million tonnes from 90 million as 14 key growing regions declared a state of emergency due to severe drought.
(Bloomberg) -- China, the world’s second-largest corn consumer, may give up efforts to be self-sufficient in the commodity and boost imports 10-fold by 2015 to feed livestock, said a researcher at Japan’s biggest grain trader. #
6/30/10 The USDA estimated the 2010 planted area for:
Corn at 87.87 million acres, up almost 2% YoY
Soybeans at 78.87 million acres, up 2% YoY
All wheat at 54.31 million acres, down 8% YoY
Spring wheat at 13.91 million acres, up 5% YoY
Cotton at 10.91 million acres, up 19% YoY
Oats 3.176 million (the lowest on record)
Rice at 3.512 million acres up from 3.411 million
As of June 1, the USDA estimates stocks of:
Corn at 4.31 billion bushels -- up 1% YoY
Soybeans at 571 million bushels -- down 4% YoY
All wheat at 973 million bushels -- up 48% YoY
Rice at 57.4 million hundredweight -- up from 48.4 YoY
4/22/10 The International Grains Council (IGC) sees wheat carryout at the end of 2010/11 at a nine year high of 199 MMT. The increase, despite lower production and higher usage, is due to the 30 MMT increase in opening stocks left over from bumper production in 2008/09.
Corn ending stocks on the other hand are seen falling from 148 MMt to 140 MMT at the end of 2010/11.
4/9/10 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was increased from 1.799 to 1.899 billion bushels.
Soybeans remained at 190 million bushels.
Wheat was reduced from 1,001 to 950 million bushels.
Sugar was increased from 1.075 to 1.218 million tons.
Cotton was reduced from 3.20 to 3.00 million bales.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was increased from 140 to 144 million tons.
Soybeans were increased from 61 to 63 million tons.
Wheat was reduced from 197 to 196 million tons.
Cotton was reduced slightly to 51 million tons.
2/9/10 The USDA estimates 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks for:
Wheat was increased from 976 to 981 million bushels.
The USDA estimates 2009-2010 world ending stocks for:
Wheat was increased from 195.6 to 195.9 million tons.
1/22/10 Now that the U.S. wheat industry appears united in supporting genetically modified crops, it's preparing for the challenge of getting foreign-market acceptance, said U.S. Wheat Associates Director of Policy Rebecca Bratter.
1/12/10 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was raised from 1.675 to 1.764 billion bushels.Yields were the culprit, coming in at 165.2 bu/acre, from 162.9 bu/acre last month and 0.7 bu/acre above the highest trade estimate.
Soybeans were reduced from 255 to 245 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 900 to 976 million bushels.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was raised from 132 to 136 million tons.
Soybeans were raised from 57 to 60 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 191 to 196 million tons.
12/10/09 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was raised from 1.625 to 1.675 billion bushels.
Some 12% of the crop is still sitting in the snow!
Soybeans were reduced from 270 to 255 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 885 to 900 million bushels.
Sugar was kept at 1.016 million tons.
Cotton was lowered from 4.90 to 4.50 million bales.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was kept at 132 million tons.
Soybeans were kept at 57 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 188 to 191 million tons.
Cotton was lowered from 54 to 52 million tons.
11/10/09 USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was lowered from 1.672 to 1.625 billion bushels. (46 day supply)
Soybeans were raised from 230 to 270 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 864 to 885 million bushels. (145 day supply)
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was lowered from 136 to 132 million tons. (60 day supply)
Soybeans were raised from 55 to 57 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 187 to 188 million tons.
10/21/09 Argentine farmers will plant a record 19 million hectares with soybeans this season, up from the previous high mark by 7%, the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchangesaid.
They forecasts 2009-10 wheat production at 7.5 million metric tons. Down sharply from the five year average of 14.8 million tons
10/19/09 CWG - Nearly half of Brazil's wheat suffering major losses due to persistent rains this month. Brazil world's largest wheat importer (Arlan Suderman Farm Futures)
10/0/09 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was raised from 1.635 to 1.672 billion bushels.
Soybeans were raised from 220 to 230 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 743 to 864 million bushels.
Sugar was lowered from 844,000 to 836,000 tons.
Cotton was lowered from 5.6 to 5.4 million bales.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was lowered from 139 to 136 million tons.
Soybeans were raised from 51 to 55 million tons.
Wheat unchanged at 187 million tons.
Cotton unchanged at 56 million tons.
9/30/09 The USDA estimated U.S. soybean stocks at 138 million bushels, vs. 111 million expected.
The USDA pegged U.S. corn stocks at 1.674 billion bushels vs. 1.719 billion expected
The USDA estimates wheat stocks at 2.215 billion bushels compared to the average analyst’s estimate of 2.132 billion bushels.
8/23/09 China's wheat imports in July up sharply at 85,078 tons versus 373 tons a year ago.
8/12/09 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 1.550 to 1.621 billion bushels.
Soybeans lowered from 250 to 210 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 706 to 743 million bushels.
Sugar was reaised from 359,000 to 709,000 tons.
Cotton unchanged at 5.60 million bales.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 139 to 141 million tons.
Soybeans lowered from 52 to 50 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 181 to 184 million tons.
Cotton was lowered from 58 to 57 million bales.
7/10/09 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 1.09 to 1.55 billion bushels.
Soybeans were raised from 210 to 250 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 647 to 706 million bushels.
Sugar was lowered from 459,000 to 359,000 tons.
Cotton unchanged at 5.60 million bales.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 125 to 139 million tons.
Soybeans were raised from 51 to 52 million tons.
Wheat was lowered from 183 to 181 million tons.
Cotton was raised from 57 to 58 million tons.
7/2/09 “More evidence of a developing El Niño event has emerged during the past fortnight, and computer forecasts show there’s very little chance of the development stalling or reversing,” Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said in a report.
6/30/09 The USDA said:
87.03 million acres of corn were planted – above trade estimates.
77.48 million acres of soybeans were planted -- less than expected.
59.78 million acres of wheat were planted – above trade estimates.
The USDA said June grain stocks for:
Corn were 4.27 billion bushels – modestly above trade estimates.
Soybeans were 597 million bushels, modestly above trade estimates.
Wheat were 667 million bushels.
6/26/09 Local expert says that Argentina may step out of wheat export market for the first time since 1910 – Arlan Suderman (Farm Futures)
6/10/09 USDA’s 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimates:
Corn was lowered from 1.145 to 1.090 billion bushels.
Soybeans were lowered from 230 to 210 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 637 to 647 million bushels.
Sugar was raised from 289,000 to 459,000 tons.
Cotton was unchanged at 5.60 million bales.
USDA’s 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimates:
Corn was lowered from 128 to 125 million tons.
Soybeans were lowered from 52 to 51 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 182 to 183 million tons.
Cotton was lowered from 58 to 57 million tons.
5/18/09 The USDA said:
62% of corn was planted, down from the five-year average of 85%.
25% of soybeans were planted, down from the five-year average of 44%.
50% of spring wheat was planted, down from the five year average of 90%.
42% of cotton was planted, down from the five year average of 53%.
5/12/09 The USDA estimates 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks of:
Corn at 1.145 billion bushels, down from 1.600 billion bushels in 2008-2009.
Soybeans at 230 million bushels, up from 130 million bushels in 2008-2009.
Wheat at 637 million bushels, down from 669 million bushels in 2008-2009.
Sugar at 289,000 tons, down from 1.192 million tons in 2008-2009.
Cotton at 5.6 million bales, down from 6.8 million bales in 2008-2009.
The USDA estimates 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Corn at 128 million tons, down from 140 million tons in 2008-2009.
Soybeans at 52 million tons, up from 43 million tons in 2008-2009.
Wheat at 182 million tons, up from 167 million tons in 2008-2009.
Cotton at 58 million bales, down from 62 million bales in 2008-2009
4/9/09 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was lowered from 1.74 to 1.70 billion bushels.
Soybeans were lowered from 185 to 165 million bushels.
Wheat was reduced from 712 to 696 million bushels.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was reduced from 145 to 143 million tons.
Soybeans were lowered from 50 to 46 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 156 to 158 million tons.
The USDA reduced its guess of Argentina's soybean crop from 43 to 39 million tons
3/31/09 The USDA said March 1st stocks of:
Corn totaled 6.96 billion bushels, up 1% YoY.
Soybeans totaled 1.30 billion bushels, down 9% YoY.
Wheat totaled 1.04 billion bushels, up 46% YoY.
The USDA said, in 2009, U.S. farmers intend to plant:
84.99 million acres of corn, down 1% YoY.
76.02 million acres of soybeans.
58.64 million acres of wheat, down 7% YoY
8.81 million acres of cotton, down 7% YoY.
3/12/09 The China National Grain and Oils Information Center expects the country's output of grains in 2009 to be lower for the first time in six years.
It projects wheat output to be down 1.3% to 111 million metric tons
It projects corn output to be down 1.5% to 163 million tons
It projects soybean output down 3.2% to 15 million tons
3/11/09 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Wheat was raised from 655 to 712 million bushels.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
Wheat was increased from 150 to 156 million tons.
3/10/09 The USDA said 63% of the winter wheat crop in Texas and 43% in Oklahoma are rated poor to very poor.
The USDA estimates U.S. 2008-2009 ending stocks of:
Corn unchanged at 1.790 billion bushels.
Soybeans lowered from 225 to 210 million bushels.
Wheat unchanged at 655 million bushels.
Sugar was reduced from 1.072 to 1.066 million tons.
Cotton was raised from 6.90 to 7.70 million bales.
The USDA estimates 2008-2009 ending stocks of:
Corn was raised from 136 to 137 million tons.
Soybeans were reduced from 54 to 50 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 148 to 150 million tons.
Cotton was raised from 59 to 62 million tons.
1/11/09 1/11/09 The USDA's 2008-2009 ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 1.474 to 1.790 million bushels.
Soybeans were raised from 205 to 225 million bushels.
Wheat was increased from 623 to 655 million bushels.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was increased from 124 to 136 million tons.
Soybeans were unchanged at 54 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 147 to 148 million tons.
The USDA said 42.1 million acres of winter wheat were planted last fall, down 9% YoY
Corn fell the exchange limit in Chicago and soybeans and wheat also plummeted on the news.
As of December, the USDA said there were:
10.1 billion bushels of corn stocks, up 2% YoY.
2.28 billion bushels of soybean stocks, down 4% YoY.
1.42 billion bushels of wheat stocks, up 26% YoY.
12/11/2008 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 1.124 to 1.474 million bushels, more than expected.
Soybeans unchanged at 205 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 603 to 623 million bushels.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 110 to 124 million tons.
Soybeans unchanged at 54 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 145 to 147 million tons.
12/11/2008 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 1.124 to 1.474 million bushels, more than expected.
Soybeans unchanged at 205 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 603 to 623 million bushels.

The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 110 to 124 million tons.
Soybeans unchanged at 54 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 145 to 147 million tons.
11/10/08 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was increased from 1.088 to 1.124 billion bushels.
Soybeans unchanged at 205 million bushels.
Wheat was increased from 601 to 603 million bushels.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was increased from 106 to 110 million tons.
Soybeans were reduced, from 54.3 to 54.1 million tons.
Wheat was increased from 144 to 145 million tons.
11/6/08 F.O. Licht lowered their projection for Argentina's 2008/09 wheat crop to 11.5 mmt from 15.4. This compares with their September forecast of 13.0 mmt.
F.O. Licht raised their estimate of Russia’s wheat crop to 62.5 million tonnes from 56.0 mmt forecast previously and 49.2 million harvested last year.
Ukraine's harvest is estimated at 24.5 million tonnes up from last year's 13.7 million tonnes.
11/5/08 Australia reduced its estimated wheat crop from 22.5 to 19.9 million tons.
9/30/08 The USDA said as of September 1st, stocks of:
Corn totaled 1.624 billion bushels.
Soybeans totaled 205 million bushels.
Wheat totaled 1.857 billion bushels.
9/12/08 The USDA's U.S. 2008-2009 ending stocks estimate for:
Wheat unchanged at 574 million bushels.
The USDA's world 2008-2009 ending stocks estimate for:
Wheat was increased from 136 to 140 million tons.
8/12/08 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks guess for:
Corn was raised from 833 to 1,133 million bushels, more than expected. (Take notice when a bearish report fails to produce its expected results)
Soybeans were reduced from 140 to 135 million bushels.
Wheat was increased from 537 to 574 million bushels.
Sugar was increased from 607,000 to 767,000 short tons.
Cotton was reduced from 5.30 to 4.60 million bales.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks guess for:
Corn was raised from 105 to 112 million tons.
Soybeans were increased slightly from 48.9 to 49.3 million tons.
Wheat was increased from 133 to 136 million tons.
Cotton was reduced from 53 to 51 million bales.
6/30/08 The USDA estimated 63.46 million acres of wheat were planted, up 5% YoY.
USDA quarterly grain stocks report 306 million bushels of wheat, down 33% YoY.
6/26/08 The International Grains Council raised its estimate of 2008/09 world wheat production to a record 658 million tonnes. This is up 8 million from their last estimate.
6/24/08 Stats Canada estimated:
25.1 million acres of wheat were planted, up 16% YoY.
15.8 million acres of canola were planted, up 7% YoY.
2.97 million acres of corn were planted, down 13% YoY.
2.99 million acres of soybeans were planted, up 3% YoY.
6/10/08 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Wheat was increased from 483 to 487 million bushels.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for Wheat was increased from 124 to 132 million tons.
5/27/08 Australia’s, Rabobank, lowered its estimate of the country's wheat crop from 24.5 to 22.0 million tons, due to dry weather.
5/21/08 Ukraine has lifted all restrictions on exports of wheat and other grains.
5/7/08 Statistics Canada said:
Wheat stocks were down 32% YoY.
Canola stocks were down 22% YoY.
4/9/08 The USDA's estimate for 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of
Wheat is unchanged at 242 million bushels.
The USDA's estimate for 2007-2008 world ending stocks of
Wheat was increased from 110.4 to 112.5 million tons.
3/31/08 In 2008 the USDA expects farmers to plant 63.8 million acres of wheat, up 6% YoY.
The USDA said, as of March 1st, U.S. stocks of Wheat totaled 710 million bushels, down 17% YoY.
The USDA said that its 2008 preliminary planting estimate for:
Wheat is 64 million acres, up 6% from the previous year.
2/14/08 The U.S. is importing wheat?? According to Dow Jones Newswire a million bushels of German wheat has been bought by a U.S. firm (Cargill?)for blending with other U.S. wheat.
2/10/08 Wheat Stocks to Use Ratios appear to be:
SRW      7.2%
HRS      13.7%
Durum    17.5%.
White    11%.
2/8/08 The USDA's estimate of 2007-2008 world ending stocks of Wheat was lowered from 110.9 to 109.7 million tons.
2/8/08 The USDA's estimate of 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of Wheat was lowered from 292 to 272 million bushels.
2/8/08 There are rumors that Brazil may start buying US wheat as soon as April.
2/5/08 Canada’s wheat stocks fell 30% YoY. Corn stocks rose15%, and Canola stocks fell 9% YoY.
2/1/08 Another concern for farmers in the northern Plains is finding enough spring-wheat seed to plant. Supplies are low because some growers who normally grow seed wheat sold their crop as prices rose, said Louise Gartner, owner of Spectrum Commodities in Beavercreek, Ohio.
1/25/08 The IGC estimates the 2008/09 world wheat crop at a record 642 million tons. That'd be up 6.6% from the 2007/08 crop
1/13/08 Food shortages and rising prices in Pakistan are increasing pressure on President Pervez Musharraf's government, which is trying to control civil unrest and a surge in terrorist attacks. Wheat prices in the world's sixth-largest consumer of the grain climbed 23 percent in a 15-day period until Jan 8.
1/3/08 The Philippines, the world's biggest importer of rice, plan to buy 550,000 metric tons. Global stockpiles of rice are forecast by the USDA to fall to 72.2 million tons by July, the lowest since 1984.
12/13/07 Since cumulative wheat sales have reached an amazing 89.6% of the USDA forecast as compared to 66.7% on average, there is now talk, that stocks will at some point be wiped out and the US may be forced to curtail or embargo further sales.
12/6/07 Statistics Canada estimates Canada's 2007 wheat production at 20.05 million tons, down 21% YoY and down 587,000 tons from their September guess.
11/9/07 The USDA's 2007-20008 U.S. ending stocks estimate of
Wheat was increased from 307 to 312 million bushels.
The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate of
Wheat increased from 107 to 109.8 million tons.
10/30/07 Australia predicts the current wheat crop at 12.1 million tons down form 15.5 previously forecast and 13.5 the last USDA prediction.
10/18/07 Wheat sales have reached 82.6% of the USDA forecast for the entire marketing year as compared to 51.3% on average over the last five years.
10/12/07 The USDA's 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks estimate of Wheat was lowered from 362 to 307 million bushels.
The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate of Wheat was reduced from 112 to 107 million tons.
10/9/07 India has extended its export ban of wheat for an indefinite period, while allowing the restriction-free import of wheat indefinitely.
10/3/07 AWB Ltd. estimates the Australian wheat crop at 13 million tons.
9/29/07 The USDA said that, on September 1, 2007 Wheat stocks totaled 1.72 billion bushels, down 2% YoY.
The USDA said that all wheat production will total 2.07 billion bushels in 2007, down 2% from the August forecast.
The International Grains Council cut its global wheat production forecast from 607m tonnes to 601m tonnes and cut its estimate for Australian output to 13.5m tons.
9/28/07 To protect domestic supplies Ukraine will begin limiting wheat exports on November 1st. Ukraine is the world's seventh largest exporter of wheat.
Russia plans to impose a 10% wheat export duty by the end of November.
The EU voted yesterday to end a rule that farmers leave 10% of their land fallow, which could cause an increase of some 10 million tonnes in grain production next year.
8/10/07 The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate for: Wheat  fell 116.6 to 114.8 million tons.
8/10/07 The USDA's 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:Wheat fell from 418 to 404 million bushels.
8/8/07 Wheat rose to a record in Chicago, on speculation that demand for U.S. grain will climb because of unfavorable weather for crops in the U.S., Europe, Canada, Australia, Ukraine and Argentina.
6/29/07 The International Grain Council has lowered its outlook for world wheat harvests due to droughts in Russia and the Ukraine. The current estimate is 614 million tonnes against the previous guess of 620.
6/29/07 The USDA estimates  planted acres of Wheat at 60.5 million acres, up 6% YoY.
The USDA estimates June 1, 2007, stocks of Wheat totaled 456 million bushels, down 20% YoY.
6/26/07 Stats Canada said Canada's farmers planted 21.7 million acres of wheat, down 10.5% from a year ago.
6/11/07 The USDA estimates 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of Wheat fell from 469 to 443 million bushels
The USDA estimates 2007-2008 world ending stocks of Wheat down from 113 to 112 million tons.
4/25/07 The International Grain Council estimates world wheat production for the 2007/2008 season at 623 million tonnes, down 1 million from last month because of freeze damage in the US. World ending stocks are anticipated to rise to 117 million tonnes which would be up 2 million from this year but still down from 134 million tonnes last year.
4/24/07 Canadian farmers intend to plant 17.1 million acres of spring wheat, down 16% YoY.
4/10/07 The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate for Wheat was kept at 121 million tons
The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Wheat was reduced from 472 to 422 million bushels
3/30/07 The USDA's Prospective Plantings report expects 60.30 million acres of wheat, up from 57.3 million acres a year ago.
The USDA said that on March 1, 07 there were 856 million bushels of wheat stocks, down 12% YoY
3/6/07 At its Outlook Forum, the USDA said they expect 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of Wheat to increase from 472 to 506 million bushels.
2/9/07 The USDA's world 2006-2007 ending stock estimate for Wheat was lowered from 122 to 121 million tons.
2/9/07 The USDA's U.S. 2006-2007 ending stock estimate for Wheat was unchanged at 472 million bushels.
1/12/07 The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate for Wheat was increased from 121 to 122 million tons.
1/12/07 The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Wheat was increased from 438 to 472 million bushels.
12/11/06 The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate of Wheat was increased from 418 to 438 million bushels.
The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate of Wheat was increased from 119 to 121 million tons.
10/26/06 The IGC said a global deficit of about 64m tons was likely as world consumption was forecast to rise to a record 1,621 tons. In spite of the recent fall in energy prices and higher grain prices, demand from the ethanol sector was expected to rise by 20m tons to 67m tons, according to the IGC.
10/25/06 AWB Ltd. reduced its estimate of Australia's wheat crop from 13.5 to 10.0 million tons.
10/13/06 Argentina may limit wheat exports in an attempt to keep domestic prices down.
10/12/06 The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for wheat was reduced from 429 to 418 million bushels.
The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate for wheat was reduced from 126 to 119 million tons (the lowest stocks figure in 25 years)
10/12/06 he U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its 2006-07 global wheat production estimate by 11 million tons to 585.1 million tons. This in turn led to a 7.1 million-ton drop to global ending stocks to 119.3 million tons, a 25-year low. The USDA lowered
Australian 2006-07 wheat production to 11 million tons from its 19.5-
million-ton estimate in September.
10/10/06 The world continues to be surprised by the significance of Australia's parched wheat fields that will yield only a fraction of last year's production. There is talk that Australia may have to purchase wheat to meet commitments. Argentina is also suffering dry conditions.
10/9/06 The Australia Grains Council said the domestic wheat crop could be as low as 10 million tons, which is below recent industry forecasts and is less than half last year's crop of 25 million tons.
10/5/06 Statistics Canada estimated Canada's wheat crop at 26.3 million tons, down 2% YoY.
9/19/06 Australia's Bureau of Agricultural said the country will harvest 16.4 million tons of wheat, down 35% YoY.
8/25/06 Statistics Canada estimates Canada's 2006 wheat crop at 25.9 million tons, down 3% YoY.
8/24/06 The International Grain Council estimated Wheat 2006-2007 ending world stocks at 117 million tons, less than the USDA's 128 million tons estimate.
8/12/06 The USDA's U.S. 2006-2007 ending stocks estimate for Wheat was reduced from 438 to 434 million bushels.
8/12/06 The USDA's world 2006-2007 ending stocks estimate for Wheat was reduced from 133 to 128 million tons.
7/31/06 Dow Jones Newswires estimated that China will import one million tons and India will import four million tons of wheat in 2006-2007.
6/30/06 The USDA estimated U.S. planted acres this spring 57.9 million acres of (all) wheat, up 1% from a year ago and up 1% from the March estimate.
6/30/06 The USDA reported U.S. grains stocks as of June 1st 568 million bushels of all wheat, up 5% YoY.
6/20/06 The Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics said that Australia's wheat crop will total 22.8 million tons this winter, down from 25.1 million tons last year, due to dry weather.
4/10/06 The USDA 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for wheat was reduced from 542 to 532 million bushels.
The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate for wheat was increased from 142.6 to 143.1 million tons.
3/31/06 The USDA's 2006-2007 planting estimate for Wheat is 57.1 million acres, down slightly YoY and the lowest since 1972.
As of March 1st, U.S. grain stocks of Wheat totaled 972 million bushels, down 1% YoY.
3/10/06 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for wheat unchanged at 542 million bushels.
1/25/06 The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics said that:
2005 Cotton Output was 5.7 Mln MT, down 9.8% YoY.
Total grain output in 2005 rose 3.1% to 484 million tons.
Meat production for the year rose 6.3%.
2005’s Oilseed and sugar output were unchanged from 2004.

Ag Minister Du Qinlin said that, although grain output has risen in the past two years, production has still failed to meet demand. He says it will be increasingly difficult to boost output due to China's growing population, water shortages, and a decrease in the size of farm lands.
Du said that China will likely face a shortage of grains next year, as demand is expected to exceed output by 15 million tons, demand for grains are expected to reach 495 million tons in 2006.
China also said that they imported 1.39 million tons of sugar, up 14% from a year ago.
1/12/06 The USDA said that 41.37 million acres of winter wheat were planted last fall, up 2% YoY -- less than expected.
1/12/06 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Wheat was increased from 530 to 542 million bushels.
12/9/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Wheat was unchanged at 530 million bushels.
12/9/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was increased from 140 to 143 million tons.
11/10/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Wheat remained at 530 million bushels.
10/12/05 USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimates for Wheat was reduced from 624 to 530 million bushels.
10/12/05 Today’s USDA production estimates for Wheat was reduced from 2.167 to 2.098 billion bushels.
09/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. crop estimate for
Wheat remained at 2.167 billion bushels.
09/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was lowered from 634 to 624 million bushels.
07/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was increased from 619 to 700 million bushels.
The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was reduced from 144 to 143 million tons.
06/07/05 Australia is the world's second-largest exporter of wheat, but it has already been suggested that the country might have to import wheat from its international competitors to meet demand this year.
05/12/05 The USDA estimated this year's U.S. winter wheat production at 1.59 billion bushels, up 6% YoY.
05/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate for
Wheat is 147 million tons, down from 150 million tons in 2004-2005.
05/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Wheat is 678 million bushels, up from 541 million bushels in 2004-2005.
04/25/05 The USDA said that 68% of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent, down 1 point from the previous week.
04/14/05 Wheat Export sales for the week ended April 7 were a net 389,400 metric tons for the 2004-05 crop year, while 29,000 tons of 2005-06 wheat were sold, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Thursday.  The sales generally met pre-report trade expectations for around
300,000-500,000 tons of export sales.  
The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was reduced from 558 to 553 million bushels.
The USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was increased from 145 to 147 million tons.
02/17/05 Compared to one year ago, U.S. exports for Wheat fell from -5% to -6%.
The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Wheat was reduced from 583 to 558 million bushels. And the USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for Wheat was increased slightly to 145.4 million tons.
01/26/05 Russia's grain harvest totalled 78 million tons (of mostly wheat) in 2004, up 16% YoY.
01/21/05 China agreed to buy one million tons of wheat from Canada before July of 2006. In 2004, China bought 2.5 million tons of wheat from Canada.
01/12/05 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was increased 30 million bushels to 583 million bushels.The USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was increased 2 million tons to 145 million tons.
01/06/05 Compared to one year ago, U.S. exports for
Wheat remained at +1%.
12/10/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was reduced 15 million bushels to 553 million bushels, and the USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for Wheat was increased to 143 million tons. The Report Lacks Surprises
11/20/04 Australia's Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics estimated the current wheat crop at 20.2 million tons, down 20% from a year ago due to hot and dry weather.
11/12/04 The USDA's U.S. 2004-2005 production estimate for
Wheat was reduced from 2.164 to 2.158 billion bushels, and
the USDA's U.S. 2004-2005 ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was reduced by 1 million bushels to 568 million bushels.
10/11/04 The USDA's world 2004-2005 ending stocks estimates for Wheat remained at 142 million tons.
10/11/04 The U.S. 2004-2005 production estimate for Wheat was increased from 2.123 to 2.164 billion bushels.
10/11/04 The USDA's U.S. 2004-2005 ending stocks estimates for Wheat were reduced 9 million bushels to 569 million bushels.
10/07/04 Compared to one year ago, U.S. 2004-2005 exports for Wheat improved from +1% to +2%.
10/06/04 Canada expects total wheat production to reach 24.5 million tons this year, down from their August 24th estimate of 25.6 million tons.

09/10/04 The USDA estimates of 2004-2005 world ending stocks for
Wheat were unchanged at 142 million tons.
09/10/04 The USDA estimates of 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks for
Wheat were unchanged at 578 million bushels.
08/26/04 The International Grains Council raised its estimate for 2004-05 world wheat output to 614 million tons, 8 million tons higher than in the previous month. This is an increase of 9.9% on the year, mainly due to good weather in the U.S., Europe, Ukraine and Russia.
07/12/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 estimate of world ending stocks for
Wheat were increased 6 million tons to 132 million tons.
07/12/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. production estimate for
Wheat is 2.06 billion bushels, down 12% from a year ago.
07/12/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 estimates of U.S. ending stocks for
Wheat were reduced by 1 million bushels to 494 million bushels.
06/30/04 USDA forecast all U.S. wheat acreage at 59.9 million.  Spring wheat acres of 13.7 million. June 1 wheat stocks were pegged at 546 million bushels.
06/10/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimates for
Wheat were reduced 4 million bushels to 495 million bushels.
World ending stocks estimates for Wheat were increased 3 million tons to 126 million tons.
04/08/04 USDA estimated U.S. 2003-04 wheat ending stocks at 531  
million bushels, down 13 million from last month's estimate, but still up from  491 million last year.  
03/31/04 As of March 1st, the USDA reported Wheat stocks at 1.02 billion bushels, up 12% from a year ago.
03/31/04 The USDA's planting estimates for all wheat are 59.5 million acres, down 4% from a year ago.
03/14/04 Rationing plan as taps go dry  The economics are inexorable, according to the organisation. It takes 1,000 tonnes of water to produce one tonne of wheat that sells for US$200 (HK$1,560), while 1,000 tonnes of water used in industry yield an estimated US$14,000 in output.
03/04/04 U.S. wheat export sales to date already
exceed total annual sales for each of the last five years, the U.S. Wheat Associates said in a newsletter released Thursday.
02/18/04 China's winter wheat crop is estimated at 78 million tons, the smallest in 20 years.
02/10/04 The USDA's 2003-2004 ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was reduced by 25 million bushels to 534 million bushels.