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I will look at any additional evidence to confirm the opinion to which I have already come.

Lord Molson


Live Cattle




Live Cattle from 1971, 200 day exponential average in red, 200 day ROC (Rate of Change) in green.
 
Live Cattle Futures - The Blue line is a  Donchian channel, red line is a 5 day exponential average, green line is a 20 day exponential average. Vertical green bars MACD (Moving average convergence divergence) 5 and 20.
 
Cattle Notes & Links:
 



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9/7/12 In 1980, per capita meat consumption in China was 15 kilo. Today that figure is 55-60 kilo.
8/22/11 U.S. feedlots placement at 2.15m cattle last month is up 22% YoY.
7/1/2011 Calltle on fedd as of June 1 were 104% of a year ago. Cattle plaeced on fedd fellto 90% YoY.
May beef cold storage stocks rose 2.4% MoM and 25.1 % YoY.
3/29/11 Goldman Sachs: Japan's tsunami and nuclear reactor scare have put up to 20% of its meat production at risk.
2/13/11 (Bloomberg) -- The smallest U.S. beef-cow herd in almost five decades will shrink this year partly because the incentive to expand is waning for a growing number of farmers near retirement age, according to industry researcher Cattlefax.
The number of cattle in Australian feedlots fell 3.7% QoQ to 737,429, and down 4.3% YoY. Australia is the second-biggest global beef exporter by volume after Brazil
The UN said the outbreak of foot- and-mouth in Asia is "unlike anything that we´ve seen for at least half a century."
1/31/11 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. cattle herd shrank to the smallest size in 53 years as of Jan. 1, as feed costs climbed and beef producers slaughtered more animals to take advantage of higher prices.
South Kore will cull 2.9 million animals to deal with the country’s worst outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease.
6/10/10 The USDA expects beef production to be down 2% in 2010 and again, in 2011.
They expect pork production to be down 4% in 2010, but up 3% in 2011.
4/23/10 The USDA said that, as of March 31st, there were 510.5 million pounds of frozen pork in storage, down 14% YoY
The USDA said that 2.21 billion pounds of beef were produced in March, up 3% YoY
The USDA said pork production totaled 2.04 billion pounds, up 4% YoY
4/9/10 The USDA expects beef production to be down 1% in 2010
The USDA expects pork production to be down 3% in 2010
2/9/10 The USDA raised its estimate of 2010 beef production from 25.50 to 25.65 billion pounds.
2/1/10 The USDA said U.S. cattle inventory fell 0.9% YoY
1/12/10 The USDA reduced its 2010 estimate of beef production 2% from 2009.
11/20/09 The USDA said there were 11.134 million head of cattle on feed on November 1st, up 1.5% YoY. Placements in October rose 1%., marketing’s fell 3%.
11/10/09 The USDA expects beef production to be down 3% in 2009 and down 1% in 2010.
10/23/09 The USDA said beef production fell 2% YoY
10/19/09 The USDA said that there were 10.474 million head of cattle on feed as of October 1st, up 0.6% YoY
9/25/09 The USDA said beef production totaled 2.18 billion pounds in August, down 4% YoY.
9/21/09 The USDA said there were 9.882 million head of cattle on feed as of September 1st, down 1.2% YoY
8/24/09 The USDA said there were 9.644 million head of cattle on feed as of August 1st, down 2.3% YoY
7/27/09 The USDA said on July 1st there were 101.8 million head of cattle in the U.S. down 1.45% YoY and the lowest in 36 years.
There were 9.752 million head of cattle on feed, down 5.3% YoY
7/17/09 The USDA expects beef production to fall 8% in 2009 and rise 9% in 2010.
6/26/09  The USDA said the U.S. produced 2.18 billion pounds of beef in May, down 8% YoY
6/22/09 The USDA said there were 10.407 million head of cattle on feed as of June 1st, down 3.8% YoY
5/22/09 The USDA said the U.S. beef production totaled 5.13 billion pounds of beef in April down 5% YoY.
5/19/08 Ahead of Friday's USDA cattle on feed report, Allendale Inc. sees the total number of cattle on feed down 2.9%, which would be the smallest May 1 total in four years.
4/17/09 The USDA said that there were 11.152 million head of cattle on feed April 1, down 4.6% YoY.
4/16/09 The USDA's expects beef exports to be down 4% in 2009.
4/9/09 The USDA increased its estimate of 2009 beef production to 26.44 billion pounds
3/16/09 President Obama announced a permanent ban on the slaughter of cows too sick or weak to stand on their own for use in human food.
3/11/09 The USDA predicts 2009 U.S. beef production down 0.7% YoY
2/10/09 The USDA lowered 2009 beef production estimate from 26.54 to 26.11 million pounds
2/2/09 USDA said that there were 94.49 million head of cattle in the U.S. on January 1st, down 1.6% YoY
1/26/09 USDA reports cattle on feed down 7.1% YoY as of January 1st.
1/16/09 Reuters reported that 300,000 cattle have died in Argentina's worst drought since 1961.
11/24/08 The USDA said there were 10.97 million head of cattle on feed as of November 1st, down 6.8% YoY.
9/12/08 The USDA's estimate of 2008 beef production unchanged at 26.69 billion pounds
9/8/08 (Reuters) - Global meat consumption is expected to rise about 20 percent higher by 2015 due to Chinese demand.
8/22/08 The USDA said there were 9.869 million head of cattle on feed as of August 1st, down 4.2% YoY. July placements were up 2.4% YoY and marketing’s were up 1.1%.
8/12/08 The USDA increased its beef production guess for 2008 from 26.6 to 26.7 billion pounds.
6/10/08 The USDA increased its estimate of 2008 U.S. beef production from 26.7 to 26.8 billion pounds, up 1.5% YoY.
4/18/08 The USDA said  as of April 1st, there were 11.684 million head of cattle on feed, up 0.3% YoY.
4/9/08 The USDA increased its estimate of 2008 beef production from 26.4 to 26.6 billion pounds, up 0.6% YoY.
10/30/07 Australia's livestock industry will be forced for the first time to import grain from overseas if local supplies continue to dwindle in the crippling drought, producers have warned.
9/21/07 The USDA said there were 10.302 million head of cattle on feed on September 1st, down 6.2% YoY. August placements were down 7.5%, marketing’s unchanged.
According to the Ag Department, the total commercial red meat production during August was a record 4.326 billion pounds, up 10% from last month and 2% more than last year.
7/23/07 The USDA said there were 10.737 million head of cattle on feed on July 1st, down 1% YoY.
6/23/07 The USDA said that there were 11.272 million head of cattle on feed as of June 1st, up 0.8% YoY.
5/18/07 The USDA said there were 11.297 million head of cattle on feed in the U.S. on May 1st, down 2.3% YoY. Placements were down 2.8% and marketing’s were up 2.0%.
2/9/07 The USDA's estimate of 2007 beef production was reduced from 26.70 to 26.64 billion lbs.
12/26/06 The USDA said there were 11.973 million head of cattle on feed on December 1st, up 2.1% YoY
10/20/06 The USDA said there were 11.385 million head of cattle on feed, up 8.6% YoY.
9/7/06 South Korea yesterday lifted its ban on US beef imposed in 2003 because of fears of mad cow disease.
8/18/06 The USDA said there were 10.822 million head of cattle on feed, up 7.2% YoY.
7/21/06 The USDA said there were 10.872 million head of cattle on feed on July 1st, up 4.6% YoY -- more than expected. June placements were up 10.3% YoY, and marketing’s were up 5.8%.
7/20/06 The Agriculture Department is scaling back its testing program for mad cow disease to about 110 tests a day from about 1000 test a day. Ag Secretary Mike Johanns said there is little justification for the current level.
7/5/06 Canada confirmed it's sixth case of mad cow disease.
4/21/06 The USDA said there were 11.812 million head of cattle on feed on April 1st, up 8.6% YoY. March placements were up 5% YoY.
4/17/06 Canada confirmed its fifth case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in a six-year old dairy cow.
3/13/06 The U.S. Agriculture Department said on Monday a more advanced test showed an animal that tested "inconclusive" for mad cow disease during the weekend was positive for the illness.
3/10/06 For 2006, the USDA estimates a 5% increase in beef production and a 3% increase in pork production.
1/27/06 The USDA said there were 97.102 million head of cattle in inventory on January 1st, up 1.7% YoY.
12/28/05 The USDA said that YoY U.S. beef production was up 7% in November.
11/18/05 The USDA said there were 11.475 million head of cattle on feed on November 1st, up 1.2% YoY. Placements in October were up 3.5% YoY and marketing’s were down 3.3%.
09/23/05 The USDA said that there were 10.0 million head of cattle on feed as of September 1st, up slightly from a year ago. August placements were down 5% from a year ago and marketing’s were up 6%
07/22/05 The USDA said that there were 10.402 million head of cattle on feed as of July 1st, up 2.7% from a year ago. June placements were up 7% from a year ago and marketing’s were down somewhat.
06/27/05 Austria confirmed its second incident of mad cow disease last Friday.
06/17/05 The USDA said that there were 10.769 million head of cattle on feed as of June 1st, up 1.2% from a year ago and slightly less than expected. May placements were down 6.2% and marketing’s were down 1.4% from a year ago.
06/13/05 The USDA found another possible case of mad cow disease in the U.S.
There is concern that Asian soy rust may have been spread north with Tropical Storm Arlene.
05/06/05 Tokyo's food safety commission said it would recommend the government waive mad cow disease tests for cattle younger than 21 months, a move toward lifting the ban on American beef imports to Japan.
05/05/05 USDA Secretary said that he wants to see a national animal identification system in place by 2009. The system would track the origin of all cattle, hogs, and chickens in the U.S.
04/22/05 The USDA said that there were 10.87 million head of cattle on feed, up 1% from a year ago, but less than expected. March placements were down 2.8% and marketing’s were roughly the same as a year ago.
04/12/05 USDA Secretary Johanns said that he wants the beef trade with Japan to resume by July. That’s nice, but  what does Japan think?
03/16/05 Canadian cattlemen have taken their complaints to NAFTA, hoping to get the U.S. to open its border.
03/02/05 Federal District Court Judge Richard Cebull, Wednesday granted a preliminary injunction against the U.S. Department of Agriculture's final rule that would have allowed the imports of Canadian live cattle younger than 30 months old as of Monday, March 7.
02/24/05 The Consumers Union asked Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns to order new tests on a cow suspected in November 2004 of having mad cow disease. The consumer group said Thursday the U.S. Department of Agriculture failed to use an internationally recognized test known as Western blot when it retested the animal and gave it a clean bill of health. "The USDA should operate out of an 'abundance of caution' in its efforts to keep the U.S. food supply safe," the group wrote Johanns. Japan meanwhile, has yet to lift its ban on U.S. beef imports. There is also one more cow in northern Japan that has reportedly been found with mad cow disease. If confirmed, it will be Japan's 15th case. Also, the USDA continues to say that the border will open to young Canadian cattle on March 7th.
02/23/05 U.S. senators threaten Japan with trade war if it doesn't import beef.Twenty senators from major U.S. agricultural states wrote to Japan's ambassador Wednesday to urge the country to keep its promise to let U.S. beef back into Japanese stores.
02/18/05 The USDA said that there were 11.334 million head of cattle on feed as of February 1st, less than expected. January placements were up 7.5% and marketings were up slightly from a year ago. Cattle are expected to trade higher on Tuesday.
02/17/05 As of January 1, 2005, Canada's cattle herd totalled 15.1 million head, a new record high and almost 3% more than a year ago.
02/04/05 Japan confirmed its first human case of mad cow disease on Friday following the death of a man who had symptoms of the fatal brain wasting illness.
01/28/05 The USDA said that there were 95.85 million head of cattle and calves in the U.S. as of January 1, 2005, up 1.0% from a year ago and slightly more than expected.
01/21/05 The USDA said that there were 11.309 million head of cattle on feed as of January 1st, up 0.5% from a year ago. December placements were up 5% and marketings were up 2% from a year ago.
01/19/05 Officials from the U.S. and Japan have agreed to meet in February with the goal of re-opening beef trade between the two countries.
01/12/05 The USDA's 2005 U.S. beef production estimate was increased from 24.8 to 26.0 billion pounds, a 6% increase YoY.
01/11/05 Canada announced that they have discovered another cow infected with BSE from Alberta. The cow is just under seven years old and officials are saying  that the cow represents no risk to the human food supply.
01/05/05 U.S. Congressman Pomeroy introduced a bill to stop the USDA from letting Canadian cattle back into the U.S.
01/04/05 U.S. Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman on Tuesday said she did not foresee a scenario that would stop imports of Canadian cattle resuming on March 7 as planned.
"It would be hard for me to envision at this point the process not moving forward as has been announced," Veneman said in remarks to reporters.
01/04/05 An official in Japan's Ag Ministry said that the recent finding of a BSE-infected cow in Canada will not hamper efforts to resume beef trade with Canada. The official added that they had expected more cases to be found. Meanwhile, the farm in Alberta where the infected dairy cow was found has been quarantined.
12/30/04 Canada  has identified a 10-year old dairy cow that is suspected of having mad cow disease (BSE). The cow has not entered the food supply for humans or animals and is not considered a danger to public health. A USDA official said that the incident will not change its plans to allow the importation of Canadian cattle into the U.S. on March 7th.
12/29/04 A new rule would go into effect on March 7, letting Canada resume shipments of live cattle under 30 months of age, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman said. The rule also would expand the kinds of beef Canada can sell in the United States.
12/17/04 The USDA said that there were 11.344 million head of cattle on feed as of December 1st, up slightly from a year ago. November placements were down 10% and marketings were up 6% from a year ago.
11/30/04 Bush pledged on Tuesday to try to expedite the opening of U.S. borders to Canadian beef as he sought to mend ties with Canada.
11/30/04 Hong Kong said that they will again accept beef from Canada that is from cows under 30 months of age.
11/23/04 A cow for which preliminary tests for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, commonly known as "mad cow disease") had proved inclusive has been determined free of the disease, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced November 23.
11/18/04 The USDA acknowledged receiving a positive, yet inconclusive, BSE test result on another cow in the rapid screening program. They are having the result verified and noted that the cow did not enter the food or feed chain.
11/04/04 140 farms in Holland, 8 in Belgium, and 3 in Germany have been shut down due to the discovery of dioxin in their livestock feed. Dioxin is believed to be a cancer- causing agent and may have come from potato skins in the feed.
10/25/04 Japan has agreed to allow the importation of U.S. beef that is younger than 21 months.
10/22/04 The USDA said that there were 10.486 million head of cattle on feed as of October 1st, up 2.6% from a year ago. September placements were down 4% from a year ago and marketings were down 11% from a year ago.
10/14/04 10/14/04 In Japan officials discovered their "14th" case of mad cow disease.
10/11/04 USAgNet is reporting the local politics in Japan will keep the ban on U.S. beef in place this year.
09/17/04 The USDA said that there were 9.973 million head of cattle on feed as of September 1st, up 1.4% from a year ago.
08/20/04 The USDA said that there were 9.853 million head of cattle on feed, up 2.7% from a year ago. Placements were down 14% from a year ago and marketings were down 15%.
07/23/04 The USDA  said that there were 10.117 million head of cattle on feed, up 2% from a year ago. Placements were down 2% from a year ago and marketings were down 6.7%.
07/08/04 Japan has agreed not to require the testing of cattle younger than twenty months for mad cow disease.
05/28/04 The USDA estimated this week's beef production at 509.5 million pounds, up 1.2% from a week ago.
3/19/04 The USDA said that there were 10.977 million head of cattle on feed as of March 1st, up 4.1% from a year ago. Placements and marketing's in February were both down 2.4% from a year ago.
2/20/04 The USDA said that there were 11.123 million head of cattle on feed on February 1st, up 4.0% from a year ago.
12/24/03 Federal officials announced they have found the first case of suspected mad-cow disease in the U.S.
Most of the beef raised in the United States is consumed domestically: 90 percent goes to the US market, with 10 percent being exported overseas, according to the US Department of Agriculture.