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Robert Rhea





Dow Theory



Our Dow Theory Prediction



Dow Industrial Average green
Dow Transportation Average blue
 
Notes & Links
 

4/13/2017 with the close of DJI below 20530 and DJT below 8914 our opinion of Dow Theory is now bearish.
4/5/2017 Our Dow Theory opinion will turn bearish if the DJ Industrials closes below 20530 "and" the DJ Transports close below 8914.
1/29/17 Our opinion of Dow Theory is currently bullish. If the Dow Industrials  should decide to close below 19693 "and" the Dow Transports close below 8991 our opinion of Dow Theory returns to bearish.
With the close on 11/9/2016 of the DJI above 17919 "and" the DJIT above 8292 IT's opinion of Dow Theory is back to bullish.
1/10/16 Our opinion of Dow Theory is currently bearish. IT will return to a bullish stance if the Dow Industrials close above 17919 ďandĒ the Dow Transports close above 8292.
10/25/2015 If The Dow Ind. closes above 17122 and the Dow Transp. close  above 8440 InvestmentTools.com view of Dow Theory returns to bullish.
With the close on 8/21/2015 of Transports at 7872.06, and Industrials at 16459.75, ITís opinion of Dow Theory is now bearish.
1/6/2015 If the DJIA closes below 17060 and the DJIT close below 8660 Investmenttools.com  turns to a bearish view of Dow Theory
With the close of the DJIA at 17390.52 on 10/31/14, and the DJTA closing at 8755.51, ITís view of Dow Theory is back to bullish.
10/30/2014 If the DJIA closes above 17355 "and" the DJTA closes above 8720 InvestmentTools.com view of Dow Theory returns to bullish.
With the close on 10/13/2014 of Transports at 7717.69, and Industrials at 16321.07, ITís opinion of Dow Theory is now bearish.
10/2/2014 If the Dow Transports close below 7967 "and" the Dow Industrials close below 16339 Investmenttools.com  turns to a bearish view of Dow Theory
3/3/2014 If the Dow Transports close below 7033 and the Dow Industrials close below 15354 Investment Tools returns to a bearish view of Dow Theory
8/30/13 If the DOW Transports close below 5993 ďandĒ the DOW Industrials close below 14655 IT returns to a bearish view of Dow Theory.(no longer applicable)
12/16/2012 With transports confirming the industrials buy signal from some month ago ITís view of Dow Theory is back to bullish.
6/28/12 if the DJ Industrials close above 12897 and DJ Transports close above 5290, IT returns to a bullish view of Dow Theory.
With the close on 6/4/12 of Transports at 4847.43, and Industrials at 12101.46, ITís opinion of Dow Theory is now bearish.
5/28/12 If the Industrials close below 12312, and Transports close below 4864 - IT's reading of Dow Theory turns bearish.
10/23/2011 With the DJIA close at 11808.79, and DJTA close at 4813,83 IT's view of DT is back to bullish.
8/4/2011 with the DJIA closing below 11623, and the DJTA closing below
4941, InvestmentTools view of Dow Theory has turned bearish.
7/23/09 With the DJIA closing today at 9069.29, and the DJTA closing at 3506.12, InvestmentTools view of Dow Theory has turned bullish.




Dow Theory in a nut shell:

Charles Dow, founder of the Wall Street Journal, developed the Dow Theory from his analysis of market price action in the late 19th century.
The Theory was popularized by William Hamilton, S.A. Nelson, Robert Rhea, Perry P. Greiner, Hale C. Whitcomb, Richard Russell and goes like this:
Stock market rallies, confirmed by both the Transportation and Industrial Averages, penetrating to new highs, with declines failing to break below previous lows, indicate a bullish trend.
Conversely successive new lows of both averages, with rallies failing to penetrate previous highs, have a bearish implication.


 
The average dividend yield over the whole period was 4.87 percent. Ignoring this return leads to enormous understatements of the long run payoff to owning stocks. It would not be difficult to publicize a total return index rather than a stock price index. On a daily basis, the difference would be barely noticeable. However, over time horizons longer than three months, the difference becomes noticeable. Over decades, the difference becomes enormous.
A value-weighted index of the Dow-components including dividend payments (VW-DOWD) would have closed at 233,060 points at the end of December 1998 had it started off in October 1928 at 239.43 points.