Wheat Futures



Chicago Wheat from 1969 (200 day exponential average red) and 200 day ROC (rate of change) in green.
 
Chicago Wheat Recent (Spot) (200 day exponential average red) and 200 day ROC (rate of change) in green.
 
Wheat CPI Adjusted Log Chart
 
Wheat Futures - The Blue line is a Donchian channel, red line is a 5 day exponential average, green line is a 20 day exponential average. Vertical green bars MACD (Moving average convergence divergence) 5 and 20.
 
Wheat Chicago Point & Figure (spot) Box = 2 Reversal = 3
 



Wheat World Stocks to Use Ratio CBOT Data
 




Wheat World ver. U.S.  Stocks to Use Ratio CBOT Data
Wheat Notes & Links:
 
Agriculture On Line

Voice from the Tomb:
Sell March Wheat on January 10,
Buy May Wheat on February 22,  
Sell July Wheat on May 10,  
Buy December Wheat on July 1,
Sell December Wheat on September 10,
Buy March Wheat on November 28.

1 Bushel Wheat: = 60lbs
Wheat bushels to Metric Tons: = Bushels x 0.027216
1 Metric Ton equals: 36.74371 bushels
1 bushels of wheat makes 73 (1 lb) loaves of bread
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6/30/08 The USDA estimated 63.46 million acres of wheat were planted, up 5% YoY.
USDA quarterly grain stocks report 306 million bushels of wheat, down 33% YoY.
6/26/08 The International Grains Council raised its estimate of 2008/09 world wheat production to a record 658 million tonnes. This is up 8 million from their last estimate.
6/24/08 Stats Canada estimated:
25.1 million acres of wheat were planted, up 16% YoY.
15.8 million acres of canola were planted, up 7% YoY.
2.97 million acres of corn were planted, down 13% YoY.
2.99 million acres of soybeans were planted, up 3% YoY.
6/10/08 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Wheat was increased from 483 to 487 million bushels.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for Wheat was increased from 124 to 132 million tons.
5/27/08 Australia’s, Rabobank, lowered its estimate of the country's wheat crop from 24.5 to 22.0 million tons, due to dry weather.
5/21/08 Ukraine has lifted all restrictions on exports of wheat and other grains.
5/7/08 Statistics Canada said:
Wheat stocks were down 32% YoY.
Canola stocks were down 22% YoY.
4/9/08 The USDA's estimate for 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of
Wheat is unchanged at 242 million bushels.
The USDA's estimate for 2007-2008 world ending stocks of
Wheat was increased from 110.4 to 112.5 million tons.
3/31/08 In 2008 the USDA expects farmers to plant 63.8 million acres of wheat, up 6% YoY.
The USDA said, as of March 1st, U.S. stocks of Wheat totaled 710 million bushels, down 17% YoY.
The USDA said that its 2008 preliminary planting estimate for:
Wheat is 64 million acres, up 6% from the previous year.
2/14/08 The U.S. is importing wheat?? According to Dow Jones Newswire a million bushels of German wheat has been bought by a U.S. firm (Cargill?)for blending with other U.S. wheat.
2/10/08 Wheat Stocks to Use Ratios appear to be:
SRW      7.2%
HRS      13.7%
Durum    17.5%.
White    11%.
2/8/08 The USDA's estimate of 2007-2008 world ending stocks of Wheat was lowered from 110.9 to 109.7 million tons.
2/8/08 The USDA's estimate of 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of Wheat was lowered from 292 to 272 million bushels.
2/8/08 There are rumors that Brazil may start buying US wheat as soon as April.
2/5/08 Canada’s wheat stocks fell 30% YoY. Corn stocks rose15%, and Canola stocks fell 9% YoY.
2/1/08 Another concern for farmers in the northern Plains is finding enough spring-wheat seed to plant. Supplies are low because some growers who normally grow seed wheat sold their crop as prices rose, said Louise Gartner, owner of Spectrum Commodities in Beavercreek, Ohio.
1/25/08 The IGC estimates the 2008/09 world wheat crop at a record 642 million tons. That'd be up 6.6% from the 2007/08 crop
1/13/08 Food shortages and rising prices in Pakistan are increasing pressure on President Pervez Musharraf's government, which is trying to control civil unrest and a surge in terrorist attacks. Wheat prices in the world's sixth-largest consumer of the grain climbed 23 percent in a 15-day period until Jan 8.
1/3/08 The Philippines, the world's biggest importer of rice, plan to buy 550,000 metric tons. Global stockpiles of rice are forecast by the USDA to fall to 72.2 million tons by July, the lowest since 1984.
12/13/07 Since cumulative wheat sales have reached an amazing 89.6% of the USDA forecast as compared to 66.7% on average, there is now talk, that stocks will at some point be wiped out and the US may be forced to curtail or embargo further sales.
12/6/07 Statistics Canada estimates Canada's 2007 wheat production at 20.05 million tons, down 21% YoY and down 587,000 tons from their September guess.
11/9/07 The USDA's 2007-20008 U.S. ending stocks estimate of
Wheat was increased from 307 to 312 million bushels.
The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate of
Wheat increased from 107 to 109.8 million tons.
10/30/07 Australia predicts the current wheat crop at 12.1 million tons down form 15.5 previously forecast and 13.5 the last USDA prediction.
10/18/07 Wheat sales have reached 82.6% of the USDA forecast for the entire marketing year as compared to 51.3% on average over the last five years.
10/12/07 The USDA's 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks estimate of Wheat was lowered from 362 to 307 million bushels.
The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate of Wheat was reduced from 112 to 107 million tons.
10/9/07 India has extended its export ban of wheat for an indefinite period, while allowing the restriction-free import of wheat indefinitely.
10/3/07 AWB Ltd. estimates the Australian wheat crop at 13 million tons.
9/29/07 The USDA said that, on September 1, 2007 Wheat stocks totaled 1.72 billion bushels, down 2% YoY.
The USDA said that all wheat production will total 2.07 billion bushels in 2007, down 2% from the August forecast.
The International Grains Council cut its global wheat production forecast from 607m tonnes to 601m tonnes and cut its estimate for Australian output to 13.5m tons.
9/28/07 To protect domestic supplies Ukraine will begin limiting wheat exports on November 1st. Ukraine is the world's seventh largest exporter of wheat.
Russia plans to impose a 10% wheat export duty by the end of November.
The EU voted yesterday to end a rule that farmers leave 10% of their land fallow, which could cause an increase of some 10 million tonnes in grain production next year.
8/10/07 The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate for: Wheat  fell 116.6 to 114.8 million tons.
8/10/07 The USDA's 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:Wheat fell from 418 to 404 million bushels.
8/8/07 Wheat rose to a record in Chicago, on speculation that demand for U.S. grain will climb because of unfavorable weather for crops in the U.S., Europe, Canada, Australia, Ukraine and Argentina.
6/29/07 The International Grain Council has lowered its outlook for world wheat harvests due to droughts in Russia and the Ukraine. The current estimate is 614 million tonnes against the previous guess of 620.
6/29/07 The USDA estimates  planted acres of Wheat at 60.5 million acres, up 6% YoY.
The USDA estimates June 1, 2007, stocks of Wheat totaled 456 million bushels, down 20% YoY.
6/26/07 Stats Canada said Canada's farmers planted 21.7 million acres of wheat, down 10.5% from a year ago.
6/11/07 The USDA estimates 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of Wheat fell from 469 to 443 million bushels
The USDA estimates 2007-2008 world ending stocks of Wheat down from 113 to 112 million tons.
4/25/07 The International Grain Council estimates world wheat production for the 2007/2008 season at 623 million tonnes, down 1 million from last month because of freeze damage in the US. World ending stocks are anticipated to rise to 117 million tonnes which would be up 2 million from this year but still down from 134 million tonnes last year.
4/24/07 Canadian farmers intend to plant 17.1 million acres of spring wheat, down 16% YoY.
4/10/07 The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate for Wheat was kept at 121 million tons
The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Wheat was reduced from 472 to 422 million bushels
3/30/07 The USDA's Prospective Plantings report expects 60.30 million acres of wheat, up from 57.3 million acres a year ago.
The USDA said that on March 1, 07 there were 856 million bushels of wheat stocks, down 12% YoY
3/6/07 At its Outlook Forum, the USDA said they expect 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of Wheat to increase from 472 to 506 million bushels.
2/9/07 The USDA's world 2006-2007 ending stock estimate for Wheat was lowered from 122 to 121 million tons.
2/9/07 The USDA's U.S. 2006-2007 ending stock estimate for Wheat was unchanged at 472 million bushels.
1/12/07 The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate for Wheat was increased from 121 to 122 million tons.
1/12/07 The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Wheat was increased from 438 to 472 million bushels.
12/11/06 The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate of Wheat was increased from 418 to 438 million bushels.
The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate of Wheat was increased from 119 to 121 million tons.
10/26/06 The IGC said a global deficit of about 64m tons was likely as world consumption was forecast to rise to a record 1,621 tons. In spite of the recent fall in energy prices and higher grain prices, demand from the ethanol sector was expected to rise by 20m tons to 67m tons, according to the IGC.
10/25/06 AWB Ltd. reduced its estimate of Australia's wheat crop from 13.5 to 10.0 million tons.
10/13/06 Argentina may limit wheat exports in an attempt to keep domestic prices down.
10/12/06 The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for wheat was reduced from 429 to 418 million bushels.
The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate for wheat was reduced from 126 to 119 million tons (the lowest stocks figure in 25 years)
10/12/06 he U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its 2006-07 global wheat production estimate by 11 million tons to 585.1 million tons. This in turn led to a 7.1 million-ton drop to global ending stocks to 119.3 million tons, a 25-year low. The USDA lowered
Australian 2006-07 wheat production to 11 million tons from its 19.5-
million-ton estimate in September.
10/10/06 The world continues to be surprised by the significance of Australia's parched wheat fields that will yield only a fraction of last year's production. There is talk that Australia may have to purchase wheat to meet commitments. Argentina is also suffering dry conditions.
10/9/06 The Australia Grains Council said the domestic wheat crop could be as low as 10 million tons, which is below recent industry forecasts and is less than half last year's crop of 25 million tons.
10/5/06 Statistics Canada estimated Canada's wheat crop at 26.3 million tons, down 2% YoY.
9/19/06 Australia's Bureau of Agricultural said the country will harvest 16.4 million tons of wheat, down 35% YoY.
8/25/06 Statistics Canada estimates Canada's 2006 wheat crop at 25.9 million tons, down 3% YoY.
8/24/06 The International Grain Council estimated Wheat 2006-2007 ending world stocks at 117 million tons, less than the USDA's 128 million tons estimate.
8/12/06 The USDA's U.S. 2006-2007 ending stocks estimate for Wheat was reduced from 438 to 434 million bushels.
8/12/06 The USDA's world 2006-2007 ending stocks estimate for Wheat was reduced from 133 to 128 million tons.
7/31/06 Dow Jones Newswires estimated that China will import one million tons and India will import four million tons of wheat in 2006-2007.
6/30/06 The USDA estimated U.S. planted acres this spring 57.9 million acres of (all) wheat, up 1% from a year ago and up 1% from the March estimate.
6/30/06 The USDA reported U.S. grains stocks as of June 1st 568 million bushels of all wheat, up 5% YoY.
6/20/06 The Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics said that Australia's wheat crop will total 22.8 million tons this winter, down from 25.1 million tons last year, due to dry weather.
4/10/06 The USDA 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for wheat was reduced from 542 to 532 million bushels.
The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate for wheat was increased from 142.6 to 143.1 million tons.
3/31/06 The USDA's 2006-2007 planting estimate for Wheat is 57.1 million acres, down slightly YoY and the lowest since 1972.
As of March 1st, U.S. grain stocks of Wheat totaled 972 million bushels, down 1% YoY.
3/10/06 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for wheat unchanged at 542 million bushels.
1/25/06 The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics said that:
2005 Cotton Output was 5.7 Mln MT, down 9.8% YoY.
Total grain output in 2005 rose 3.1% to 484 million tons.
Meat production for the year rose 6.3%.
2005’s Oilseed and sugar output were unchanged from 2004.

Ag Minister Du Qinlin said that, although grain output has risen in the past two years, production has still failed to meet demand. He says it will be increasingly difficult to boost output due to China's growing population, water shortages, and a decrease in the size of farm lands.
Du said that China will likely face a shortage of grains next year, as demand is expected to exceed output by 15 million tons, demand for grains are expected to reach 495 million tons in 2006.
China also said that they imported 1.39 million tons of sugar, up 14% from a year ago.
1/12/06 The USDA said that 41.37 million acres of winter wheat were planted last fall, up 2% YoY -- less than expected.
1/12/06 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Wheat was increased from 530 to 542 million bushels.
12/9/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Wheat was unchanged at 530 million bushels.
12/9/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was increased from 140 to 143 million tons.
11/10/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Wheat remained at 530 million bushels.
10/12/05 USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimates for Wheat was reduced from 624 to 530 million bushels.
10/12/05 Today’s USDA production estimates for Wheat was reduced from 2.167 to 2.098 billion bushels.
09/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. crop estimate for
Wheat remained at 2.167 billion bushels.
09/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was lowered from 634 to 624 million bushels.
07/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was increased from 619 to 700 million bushels.
The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was reduced from 144 to 143 million tons.
06/07/05 Australia is the world's second-largest exporter of wheat, but it has already been suggested that the country might have to import wheat from its international competitors to meet demand this year.
05/12/05 The USDA estimated this year's U.S. winter wheat production at 1.59 billion bushels, up 6% YoY.
05/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate for
Wheat is 147 million tons, down from 150 million tons in 2004-2005.
05/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Wheat is 678 million bushels, up from 541 million bushels in 2004-2005.
04/25/05 The USDA said that 68% of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent, down 1 point from the previous week.
04/14/05 Wheat Export sales for the week ended April 7 were a net 389,400 metric tons for the 2004-05 crop year, while 29,000 tons of 2005-06 wheat were sold, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Thursday.  The sales generally met pre-report trade expectations for around
300,000-500,000 tons of export sales.  
The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was reduced from 558 to 553 million bushels.
The USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was increased from 145 to 147 million tons.
02/17/05 Compared to one year ago, U.S. exports for Wheat fell from -5% to -6%.
The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Wheat was reduced from 583 to 558 million bushels. And the USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for Wheat was increased slightly to 145.4 million tons.
01/26/05 Russia's grain harvest totalled 78 million tons (of mostly wheat) in 2004, up 16% YoY.
01/21/05 China agreed to buy one million tons of wheat from Canada before July of 2006. In 2004, China bought 2.5 million tons of wheat from Canada.
01/12/05 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was increased 30 million bushels to 583 million bushels.The USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was increased 2 million tons to 145 million tons.
01/06/05 Compared to one year ago, U.S. exports for
Wheat remained at +1%.
12/10/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was reduced 15 million bushels to 553 million bushels, and the USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for Wheat was increased to 143 million tons. The Report Lacks Surprises
11/20/04 Australia's Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics estimated the current wheat crop at 20.2 million tons, down 20% from a year ago due to hot and dry weather.
11/12/04 The USDA's U.S. 2004-2005 production estimate for
Wheat was reduced from 2.164 to 2.158 billion bushels, and
the USDA's U.S. 2004-2005 ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was reduced by 1 million bushels to 568 million bushels.
10/11/04 The USDA's world 2004-2005 ending stocks estimates for Wheat remained at 142 million tons.
10/11/04 The U.S. 2004-2005 production estimate for Wheat was increased from 2.123 to 2.164 billion bushels.
10/11/04 The USDA's U.S. 2004-2005 ending stocks estimates for Wheat were reduced 9 million bushels to 569 million bushels.
10/07/04 Compared to one year ago, U.S. 2004-2005 exports for Wheat improved from +1% to +2%.
10/06/04 Canada expects total wheat production to reach 24.5 million tons this year, down from their August 24th estimate of 25.6 million tons.
09/10/04 The USDA estimates of 2004-2005 world ending stocks for
Wheat were unchanged at 142 million tons.
09/10/04 The USDA estimates of 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks for
Wheat were unchanged at 578 million bushels.
08/26/04 The International Grains Council raised its estimate for 2004-05 world wheat output to 614 million tons, 8 million tons higher than in the previous month. This is an increase of 9.9% on the year, mainly due to good weather in the U.S., Europe, Ukraine and Russia.
07/12/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 estimate of world ending stocks for
Wheat were increased 6 million tons to 132 million tons.
07/12/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. production estimate for
Wheat is 2.06 billion bushels, down 12% from a year ago.
07/12/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 estimates of U.S. ending stocks for
Wheat were reduced by 1 million bushels to 494 million bushels.
06/30/04 USDA forecast all U.S. wheat acreage at 59.9 million.  Spring wheat acres of 13.7 million. June 1 wheat stocks were pegged at 546 million bushels.
06/10/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimates for
Wheat were reduced 4 million bushels to 495 million bushels.
World ending stocks estimates for Wheat were increased 3 million tons to 126 million tons.
04/08/04 USDA estimated U.S. 2003-04 wheat ending stocks at 531  
million bushels, down 13 million from last month's estimate, but still up from  491 million last year.  
03/31/04 As of March 1st, the USDA reported Wheat stocks at 1.02 billion bushels, up 12% from a year ago.
03/31/04 The USDA's planting estimates for all wheat are 59.5 million acres, down 4% from a year ago.
03/14/04 Rationing plan as taps go dry  The economics are inexorable, according to the organisation. It takes 1,000 tonnes of water to produce one tonne of wheat that sells for US$200 (HK$1,560), while 1,000 tonnes of water used in industry yield an estimated US$14,000 in output.
03/04/04 U.S. wheat export sales to date already
exceed total annual sales for each of the last five years, the U.S. Wheat Associates said in a newsletter released Thursday.
02/18/04 China's winter wheat crop is estimated at 78 million tons, the smallest in 20 years.
02/10/04 The USDA's 2003-2004 ending stocks estimate for
Wheat was reduced by 25 million bushels to 534 million bushels.