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Coffee




Coffee from 1974 (200 day exponential average red)200 day ROC (rate of change) green.
 
Coffee stock to use ratio %
 
Coffee Recent (Spot)(200 day exponential average red, 50 day xaverage yellow) 200 day ROC (rate of change) green.
 
Coffee Futures - The Blue line is a Donchian channel, red line is a 5 day exponential average, green line is a 20 day exponential average. Vertical green bars MACD (Moving average convergence divergence) 5 and 20.
 

Coffee Point & Figure (spot) Box = 50 Reversal = 3
 
Coffee CPI adjusted log chart
 
COFFEE "C" (ICE) WAREHOUSE STOCKs
 
Coffee Notes & Links:
 

(Bloomberg)... Coffee lowers the risk of Type 2 diabetes by increasing the body’s ability to use insulin to convert blood sugar to energy,..
The caffeine equivalent to that in two cups of coffee can boost performance on a memory test.
Coffee May Help Prevent Liver Cancer A study of more than 90,000 Japanese found that people who drank coffee daily or nearly every day had half the liver cancer risk of those who never drank coffee. The protective effect occurred in people who drank one to two cups a day and increased at three to four cups.
Coffee has up to four times as much anti-oxidant as green tea.It contains a large amount of anti-oxidants, which, according to studies, delay the aging process by protecting cells. According to researchers at the Nestle Research Center in Switzerland, coffee has up to four times as much anti-oxidant, here polyphenols, as green tea. And the effect is not reduced by decaffeination
Lower gout risk for coffee lovers A University of British Columbia team found blood uric acid levels - which are linked to the condition - were lower in people who drank more coffee.
Coffee may cut the risk of dementia by blocking the damage cholesterol can inflict on the body, research suggests.
The drink has already been linked to a lower risk of Alzheimer's Disease, and a study by a US team for the Journal of Neuroinflammation may explain why
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5/26/14 The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) predicts that coffee production across Latin America will fall by as much as 15 to 40 percent in the coming years because of Coffee rust, or roya.
4/13/14 Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said the odds of an El Nino developing in the May-July period now exceed 70%.
Abic estimates that Brazil's coffee output will fall to 47m bags – dryness continues. Cancel that - 2.7mm could fall in southern Minas Gerais, Brazil's top coffee-growing state.
1/17/14 The caffeine equivalent to that in two cups of coffee can boost performance on a memory test.
6/3/12 The Economist: In China, coffee consumption will grow by an average rate of almost 40% a year from 2011 to 2015.
12/17/10 A shortage of high-quality arabica coffee has led to “precariousness of the supply/demand balance,” the ICO said.
11/5/10 YoY Colombia's coffee output is set to rise 11% in 2010/11 (October-September) to 9 million 60-kg bags, the country's exporters association said on Thursday.
9/1/10 ABN Amro analysts said Brazil, the world's top arabica producer, could "see much less rainfall" next year than is needed for the good development of the 2011-12 crop if this La Nina weather phenomenon proves a significant one
6/18/10 The USDA estimates Brazil’s coffee output to surge 23% to a record 55.3 million bags in the 2010-11 marketing year. In addition, Brazil is expected to boost its harvest of arabica coffee beans, which are valued more than the Robusta by 27% in the year to 41.8 million bags.
6/10/10 The International Coffee Organization estimates world coffee production in 2010-2011 at 134 million bags and consumption at 134 million bags.
2/9/10 The agricultural survey group of Brazil's Census Bureau, the IBGE, on Tuesday put the upcoming 2010 coffee crop at 46.8 million 60-kilogram bags. IBGE's new data is 15% above the 2009 crop.
12/16/09 Brazil harvested 39.5 million bags of coffee this year, up from a September estimate of 39.0 million bags
10/20/09 Illy forecasts 2010-11 world coffee production at 145 million 60-kilgrambags, up from 132 million bags in 2009-10. Consumption in 2010 is pegged at around 135 million bags,leaving a 10 million bag surplus, said Illy.
9/14/09 The ICO’s August coffee report kept its estimate of 2008-2009 world production at 127 million bags, but raised its estimate of 2008 world consumption from 128.4 to 130.0 million bags.
9/8/09 Brazil's estimates the 2009-2010 coffee crop at 39 million bags, down from 46 million bags YoY.
7/16/09 The International Coffee Organization raised its estimate of 2008-2009 world coffee production from 126.1 to 128.8 million bags
7/15/09 Brazil is expected to produce a record 52 million 60-kg bags of coffee in the 2010/11 crop year, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
7/2/09 Indonesia's coffee output is forecast to grow by 3% to 689,000 tonnes in 2009.
6/15/09 The USDA estimates 2009-2010 world coffee production at 127.4 million bags and usage at 132.2 million bags, putting ending stocks at 35.3 million bags or 27% of use. The USDA expects 2010 ending stocks at 13 million bags.
5/25/09 Colombia’s April coffee production fell 61% to 345,000, versus 886,000 60-kilogram bags in April last year. Total coffee production in Colombia fell 25% YoY. YoY Coffee exports fell 14%.
5/6/09 Fortis Bank estimates 2008-9 world coffee production at 134.2 million (60-kg) bags and consumption at 127.7 million bags.
In 2009-2010, Fortis expects world Coffee production at 141.3 million bags and consumption at 128.9 million bags.
4/20/09 The International Coffee Organization reduced its estimate of the 2008-2009 world coffee crop from 127.8 to 127 million bags
3/10/09 The International Coffee Organization reduced its guess of 2008-2009 world coffee production from 133.4 to 127.8 million bags
3/4/2009 The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association lowered its estimate of this year's coffee harvest from 17 to 16 million bags.
2/5/09 Brazil estimates the upcoming coffee crop at 39.4 million bags.
1/13/09 The ICO raised its guess of the world's 2008-2009 coffee crops from 132.5 to 134.2 million bags, YoY this is up from 116.2. Consumption for 2008 remained unchanged at 128 million bags. For 2009 they anticipate consumption at 132 million bags.
The ICO said Brazil’s coffee production, which follows a biennial cycle (high output one year followed by low the next), could fall from 46m 60kg bags in 2008-09 to between 36.9m and 38.8m bags this year, a drop of 16 to 20 per cent.
12/8/2008 The USDA estimates 2008-2009 world ending stocks of coffee at 39.6 million bags -- 29% of use.
(Bloomberg) -- World coffee consumption may outstrip production by as much as 8 million bags in 2009-10 because of the smaller crop in Brazil
4/9/08 Brazil estimated the upcoming coffee harvest at 44.2 million bags.
2/19/07 Coffee inventories in Brazil, the world's biggest grower, are at a 50-year low, said Alarons Jaime Menahem.
1/25/08 ICO estimates coffee production at 116 million bags and consumption at 123 for 2007-08.
1/15/08 The International Coffee Organization estimates the world coffee crop at 124.5 million bags, up from 116 million YoY. Consumption is estimated at 125 million bags, up from 123 million bags in 2007.
12/11/07 The USDA increased its estimate of the 2007-2008 world coffee crop from 118.9 to 122.9
11/27/07 The USDA expects Colombia's coffee production to increase from 12.2 to 12.4 million bags in 2007-2008.
10/13/07 From Barrons: Groundwater levels in Sao Paulo were just 10% of what is necessary to keep coffee trees flowering. Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais have not had decent rain since mid September.
10/11/07 The International Coffee Organization kept its guess of 2007-2008 world production and consumption  at 114 and 122 million bags.
8/26/07 Brazil's Ag Ministry estimates the current coffee crop at 32.6 million bags.
8/7//07 The International Coffee Organization left its estimate of 2007-2008 world coffee production unchanged at 112.0 million bags. World consumption was raised from 119.5 million bags to 120 million bags.
6/11/07 The USDA estimates 2007-2008 world ending stocks of coffee at 16.8 million bags, the lowest since 1961.
5/23/07 USDA estimated Brazil's coffee crop at 36.2 million bags.
4/10/07 Brazil expects the 2007-2008 coffee crop at 37.5 million (60-kg) bags, more than expected.
3/13/07 The International Coffee Organization increased its estimate of the 2007-2008 world coffee crop from 110.5 to 112.0 million bags. It reduced its estimate of 2007 world consumption from 118 to 117.5 million bags.
2/15/07 The International Coffee Organization estimates 2007-2008 world coffee production unchanged at 110.5 million bags They estimate Consumption at 118 million bags, up from 116 million bags last year.
1/16/07 The International Coffee Organization expects 07_08 global coffee production at 110.5 million bags and demand at 119 million bags.
Green Coffee Association said U.S. coffee stocks were at 4.987 million bags, down 59,646 bags in December.
12/15/06 Brazil's government estimates the 2007-2008 coffee crop at 31.7 million bags, less than expected. They said the 2006-2007 coffee crop totaled 42.5 million bags, 4 million bags less than the USDA's estimate.
8/25/06 The Brazilian government raised its estimate of the coffee crop from 40.6 to 41.6 million bags. The USDA's estimates the Crop at 44.8 million bags.
8/22/06 Bloomberg : Coffee production in India, which supplies 4.5 percent of world exports, will probably decline in the coming year because of damage from heavy rains and pests.
5/15/06 The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks were down 76.002 bags to 5.2 million bags.
The USDA estimated Brazil's coffee crop at 44.8 million bags.
4/17/06 The U.S. Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks were up 81,769 bags in March, at 5.28 million bags.
4/10/06 The Brazilian government lowered its estimate of the forthcoming coffee crop from 42.0 to 40.6 million bags.
3/16/06 The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks were at 5.193 million bags. Up 243,980 bags in February.
2/17/06 Dow-Jones Newswire reported that the Ag Secretary of Minas Gerais said that 15% of his state's coffee crop has been lost to dry weather. Half of Brazil's coffee crop comes from the state of Minas Gerais.
2/15/06 The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks were 4.95 million bags – up 282,693 bags.
1/17/06 The International Coffee Organization increased its estimate of the world's 2006-2007 coffee crop from 120 to 121 million bags. They expect World consumption, at 119 million bags in 2006 and 120 million in 2007.
1/17/06 The Green Coffee Association said that December’s U.S. Coffee stocks were down 208,465 bags to 4.6 million bags.
12/28/05 The Dow-Jones Newswires credits a fungus in Brazil and too much rain in Vietnam as two recent supporting reasons for Coffee.
12/13/05 The International Coffee Organization predicted that the world 2006-2007 coffee crop will total 120 million (60 kg) bags. They estimate consumption at 118 million bags.
12/1/05 The USDA increased its estimate of world coffee ending stocks for 2005-2006 from 14.9 to 20.3 million bags. The production estimate was unchanged at 113.2 million bags -- world consumption was lowered from 119.4 to 116.6 million bags.
11/28/05 The USDA reduced the estimate of Brazil's 2005-2006 coffee crop from 36.5 to 36.1 million bags.
08/15/05 The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks were up 118,087 bags at the end of July to 6.06 million bags.
07/12/05 The International Coffee Organization's June Coffee Report lowered its estimate of world coffee production in 2005-2006 from 106 to 105 million (60-kg) bags. They also lowered the 2004-2005 estimation of the world coffee crop from 114 to 110.5 million bags. World consumption for 2004 was projected at 114.4 million bags.
07/12/05 The International Coffee Organization  lowered  its estimate of Vietnam's 2005-2006 coffee production from 13.0 to 11.0 million (60-kg) bags.
07/05/05 Brazil's Coffee Roasters Association said that coffee consumption in Brazil was up 12% in 2004-2005 to 15.5 million (60-kg.) bags.
06/14/05 The International Coffee Organization estimates the 2005-2006 world coffee production at 106 million (60-kg) bags. They estimate 2004-2005 world consumption at 114 million bags.
06/10/05 The USDA estimates that 2005-2006 world ending coffee stocks will drop 6.3 million bags to 14.9 million bags, the lowest in over two decades.
05/25/05 The USDA estimated Vietnam's 2005-2006 coffee crop at 12.2 million bags, down 1.8 million bags from the previous year.
05/24/05 The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service released its estimates yesterday of Brazil's coffee crop. They anticipate a harvest of 36.5 million bags of coffee in 2005-2006, down from 42.4 million bags the previous year. The 2005-2006 Arabica crop is estimated at 26.0 million bags, down from 33.4 million bags in 2004-2005. Brazil's ending stocks are expected to fall from 10.44 to 4.81 million bags in 2005-2006.
05/05/05 YoY Brazils April Green Coffee Exports were up 10 percent at 1.71 M Bags.
04/22/05 Brazil's coffee crop will total 32.46 million 60-kilogram bags in 2005-06 (July-June), according to the latest estimate released by the National Commodities Supply Corp, on Friday. This compares to  38.7 million bags last year.
03/14/05 BBC News reported that Vietnam is suffering its worst drought in 28 years and the coffee crop is being threatened.
03/11/05 Dow Jones Newswires reported that Colombia expects to have another 11.5 million (60-kg) bag coffee crop in 2005-2006
02/15/05 The Green Coffee Association reported 5.16 million bags at the end of January, up 89,316 bags from the end of December.
02/10/05 The International Coffee Organization kept its estimate of world coffee production at 107 million (60-kg) bags for 2005-2006 with 114 million bags of consumption. For Brazil, they anticipate the coffee crop to total 31.9 million bags.
01/18/05 The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks finished the year at 5.075 million bags, down 91,483 bags from the end of November.
12/20/04 Brazilian coffee consumption could rise to 16 million 60-kg bags in 2005 as Brazil’s economic recovery continues and the drink becomes more popular, a Brazilian coffee industry leader said last Friday.
12/15/04 The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. stocks were down 234,367 bags on November 30th to 5,166,255 bags.
12/15/04 The International Coffee Organization released its first estimates  for the world's 2005-2006 coffee crop, pegging production at 107 million 60-kg bags and consumption at 114 million bags. If true, the ending stocks to use ratio will drop to 16%, the lowest in over two decades.
12/10/04 Brazil's National Commodities Supply Corp. estimated the 2005-2006 coffee crop at 31.9 million 60-kg bags.
12/03/04 The USDA said that world 2004-2005 ending coffee stocks increased by 3.25 million bags to 25.8 million 60-kg bags, or 22% of annual use. The USDA pegged world production at 119.0 million 60-kg bags and implied use of 115.8 million bags.
12/02/04 Brazil exported 1.86 million 60-kg bags of coffee in November, down from 2.3 million bags in October.
12/01/04 The chairman of Vietnam's Coffee and Cocoa Association said that drought will reduce Vietnam's coffee crop to roughly 10.5 million 60-kg bags in 2004-2005, down from 15 million bags in 2003-2004.
11/16/04 The Green Coffee Association said  yesterday that coffee stocks at the end of October were down 218,126 bags to 5.4 million 60-kg bags.
11/15/04 The International Coffee Organization said that world coffee production will total 113 million 60-kg bags in 2004-2005, down from 122 million bags this year.
09/17/04 After an 11 year absence, the U.S. said  that it will rejoin the International Coffee Organization.
08/18/04 The National Coffee Council said that Brazil's co-ops held 3.47 million 60-kg. bags at the end of July, down 43% from a year ago.
06/16/04 The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks totaled 5.84 million bags at the end of May.
06/10/04 The USDA said that 2004-2005 world production of coffee will increase 117.7 million 60-kg bags, up from 106.9 million bags in 2003-2004. Ending stocks are expected to increase by 598,000 bags to 23.9 million bags, 20% of annual use.
05/28/04 Brazil's coffee crop experienced cold temperatures overnight, but no freezing was reported.
04/27/04 (Reuters) There are  Signs that Brazil's winter may be colder this year with increased risk of a crop-damaging frost. Weather forecasters noted that El Nino and La Nina weather patterns in the eastern Pacific were neutral and this traditionally prompted colder winters in Brazil. "We expect more intense cold fronts than in recent years and greater risk of frost in in Parana and west Sao Paulo state but only severe fronts would reach southern Minas," said Cassia Beu of private forecaster Somar.
03/15/04 The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks were up 204,590 bags to 5.83 million bags.
03/05/04 Brazil's coffee exports totalled 1.08 million 60-kg bags in February, down 49% from a year ago.
02/19/04 Stocks held by Brazilian cooperatives totaled 4.55 million 60-kilogram bags at January's end, 35% less than a year earlier, the National Coffee Council said.
02/10/04 Brazil in January shipped 1.54 million 60-kilogram bags overseas, below 2.1 million bags in January 2003, according to the Council of Green Coffee Exporters. Shipments in the July-June season through January were 13.18 million bags, 25% lower than in the same period last year.
02/09/04 U.S. green coffee roastings totalled 19.3 million 60-kg. bags in 2003, the most in 30 years.
Jan 04 Coffee 'lowers diabetes risk' coffee the health food!