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Sam Ewing






Sugar



Sugar from 1975 ( 200 day exponential average red),200 day ROC (rate of change) green
 
 
Sugar from 1975 CPI adjusted log chart
 
Sugar Recent (Spot)(200 day exponential average red, 50 day xaverage yellow) 200 day ROC (rate of change) green.
 
Sugar Futures - The Blue line is a Donchian channel, red line is a 5 day exponential average, green line is a 20 day exponential average. Vertical green bars MACD (Moving average convergence divergence) 5 and 20.
 
Sugar (spot) Point & Figure    Box = 10 Revesrsal = 3
 
Sugar Notes & Links:
 

Total spending on Sugar is less than 0.2% of global gross domestic product, according Morgan Stanley (10/7/09)
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11/16/09 White sugar tenders for the expired December futures contract were 5,520 lots, with Louis Dreyfus taking delivery of all the contracts.
11/10/09 USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
Sugar was raised from 836,000 to 1,016,000 tons.
China's refined sugar production in October fell 17%.  For the  January-October period refined sugar output fell 13% YoY.
10/28/09 The U.S. will need to import as much as 1.2 million tons more sugar than the U.S. Department of Agriculture now plans on allowing into the country in fiscal year 2010, according to the Sweetener Users Association
10/27/09 India will extend the deadline for duty-free imports of the raw sugar by nine months to Dec. 31 2010
10/21/09 YoY China's refined sugar production in September fell 57% to 14,000 metric tons, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. From January to September, sugar output fell 13% YoY.
10/20/09 The global sugar deficit of 8.3 million metric tons in the 2009-10 period should reverse to a surplus in the 2010-11 period, said the general director of Kingsman, a Lausanne, Switzerland-based consultancy.
Sugar content in cane has fallen to 5-6 percent from the usual 9 percent level in Uttar Pradesh, India's top producing state of the sweetener, according to a PTI story
India's sugar production is expected to rise to 18 million metric tons (prev. 16-17) in 2009-10, according to an Indian government official inBrazil.
Mexico's new 2009-10 sugar harvest is forecast to produce 5,168,188 metric tons, up 4.1% of semi-refined standard sugar, the National CaneSugar Growers Union said Tuesday.
10/19/09 Czarnikow said supplies from Brazil’s centre-south region, the main sugar cane growing area, would be exhausted before the end of December if exports continued at their current rate.
10/14/09World sugar output is forecast to increase to 156.9 million tonnes in 2009/10 from 150.0 million in 2008/09, German analyst F.O. Licht said in its first forecast for sugar production in the new crop year. "As sugarcane needs 12 to 18 months to mature, the cane that has been planted in response to this year's price surge will only be ready for harvesting for the 2010/11 crush." F.O. Licht said.
10/9/09 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
Sugar was lowered from 844,000 to 836,000 tons.
10/5/09 FCStone to raise its estimate for a global sugar shortfall in the year ended September to 8 million tons, from 6.1 million tons previously.
Sugar production in India'sKarnataka state is expected to decline for a second year due to flooding
9/30/09 Barclays Capital expects world Sugar use to outpace production by 8.1 million tons in 2009-2010
9/25/09 The global sugar deficit in the year starting October 1 may be 8.3 million tons, compared with a June estimate of 5.1 million tons, Switzerland-based sugar broker Kingsman SA said.
9/24/09 India will extend authorization to import duty-free white sugar until the middle of next year to fill the supply gap.
Brazil's center-south 2009/10 sugar output should fall 600,000 tonnes from July's estimate as excess rains have reduced expected cane yields, Job Economia analysts said Wednesday.
Brazil's 2009-10 center-south sugar cane crush is projected at 529.5 millionmetric tons, down from an April estimate of 550 million tons, the SugarcaneIndustries Association, or Unica, said Thursday.
9/21/09 From January to August 2009 China imported 909,029 tons of sugar
From January to August 2008 China imported 645,556 tons of Sugar
9/1/09 India may remove the limit of 1 million metric tons onwhite sugar imports to improve supply
Pakistan bought 75,000 tons of white sugar from Dubai for $638 a ton, including freight costs
8/28/09 (Bloomberg) -- Sugar-cane output in Brazil is declining after rains this month in parts of the Center South, the world’s biggest producing region, were at their most severe in more than six decades, miller Maurilio Biagi Filho said.
8/26/09 Macquarie estimates Brazilian 2009-10 sugar production at 30.3 million metrictons, down from its previous expectation of between 32 million tons and 33million tons. India's 2009-10 sugar production estimate was revised down to 16million tons from the previous estimate of 17.5 million tons.
8/23/09 China's sugar imports in July rose to 132,982 metric tons from 21,910 tons last July.
8/19/09 (Bloomberg) -- Pakistan, Asia’s third-largest user of sugar, needs to import as much as 1 million metric tons by December to meet a shortfall in domestic supplies, a trade body head said.
8/16/09 (Bloomberg) Next year’s ratio of stocks-to-use, which the USDA forecast at 6.7 percent, would be the lowest since 1949, according to department data
8/12/09 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 1.550 to 1.621 billion bushels.
Soybeans lowered from 250 to 210 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 706 to 743 million bushels.
Sugar was reaised from 359,000 to 709,000 tons.
Cotton unchanged at 5.60 million bales.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 139 to 141 million tons.
Soybeans lowered from 52 to 50 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 181 to 184 million tons.
Cotton was lowered from 58 to 57 million bales.
8/10/09 (Bloomberg) -- White sugar rose to a record in London as India, the world’s biggest consumer and second-largest producer, cut its forecast for monsoon rain, potentially worsening a global supply shortfall.
Sugar supplies may not be enough to meet demand, and stocks at the end of the current crop year are seen at around 20 million tonnes, well below other analysts' estimates of 30-70 million tonnes, Czarnikow said.
Egypt lifts import duty on raw and refined sugar from Aug. 15 until end of year to reduce consumer prices.
7/29/09 Egypt removed duties from imported sugar to help stabilize the price
India is expected to import up to 5 million tonnes of sugar in 2009/10 Sucden said.
7/15/09 YoY Russian 2009/10 sugar output is set to fall below 2.9 million tonnes from 3.5
7/10/09 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Sugar was lowered from 459,000 to 359,000 tons.
7/2/09 India is expected to produce 15 million tonnes of sugar in the year to September, down 43% YoY. Demand for the world's top consumer and biggest producer after Brazil, was expected to be 22.5 million tonnes in 2008/09.
6/25/09 F.O. Licht has cut its forecast for world sugar production in 2008/09 to 149.3 million tonnes, raw value, from a previous projection of 156.3 million and the prior season's 168.9 million, the analyst said on Thursday.
6/23/09 China's sugar imports in May rose 26% on year to 141,457 metric tons, the General Administration of Customs said.
India’s sugar output is forecast to drop about 45% to 14.7 million tonnes in the crop year to September.
6/10/09 USDA’s 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimates:
Sugar was raised from 289,000 to 459,000 tons.
5/25/09 India's Farm Minister said the federal government may extend the deadline for duty-free raw sugar imports beyond July 31. India's sugar output has fallen to 14.7 million tons in the year ending September from 26.3 million tons a year earlier.
5/22/09 The USDA expects world sugar ending stocks at 19% of annual use, making it the lowest stocks to use ratio in 16 years.
A report on ethanol predicted world demand for ethanol will rise 9.3% per year for five years.
5/15/09 The International Sugar Organization expects a 2009-2010, world production deficit of 4.75 million tons.
5/12/09 5/12/09 The USDA estimates 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks of:
Sugar at 289,000 tons, down from 1.192 million tons in 2008-2009.
5/6/09 The USDA estimates that Brazil will produce 36.85 million metric tons of sugar in 2009-2010, up from 32.4 mmt YoY.
(Bloomberg) -- Global sugar demand will exceed output by 7.8 million metric tons in the current year, almost double the previous estimate, as farmers harvest smaller cane crops in Asia, the International Sugar Organization said.
The USDA estimates that Brazil will produce 28.45 billion liters of ethanol in 2009-2010, up from 26.85 billion liters YoY.
5/1/2009 Czarnikow said India’s Sugar output will be 14.7 million metric tons in the 12 months ending Sept. 30, down from a February forecast of 17 million tons. Sucden said that global demand will exceed production by 9 million metric tons.
4/17/09 The Environmental Protection Agency is considering increasing the ethanol blend in gasoline from 10% to 15%.
4/13/09 India ended its 60% import duty on sugar in an effort to relieve a shortage at home.
4/9/09 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Sugar was increased from 981,000 to 1.29 million tons.
3/11/09 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Sugar was reduced from 1.066 to .981 million tons.
2/26/09 PepsiCo has announced it will be introducing a new line of ‘pure sugar’ soft drinks in late April.
2/25/09 Czarnikow increased its estimate of the 2008-2009 world sugar production deficit from 5.8 to 10.4 million tons.
2/10/09 The USDA estimates U.S. 2008-2009 ending stocks of:
Sugar was reduced from 1.072 to 1.066 million tons.
2/4/2009 Bloomberg reported that India, the biggest maker of sugar after Brazil, produced 9.5 million metric tons in the four months through January, down 20% YoY as farmers harvested less cane
2/3/09 India announced approval for duty free imports of raw sugar.
1/11/09 1/11/09 The USDA's 2008-2009 ending stocks estimate for:
Sugar was increased from 961,000 to 1,072,000 tons.
12/11/2008 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Sugar was raised from 907,000 to 961,000 tons.
11/19/08 The USDA said that world ending stocks of sugar will be 24% in 2008-2009
10/31/08 F.O. Licht estimates world sugar consumption up 1.8% in 2008-2009 outpacing production by 472,300 tons.
9/14/08 Europe's cocoa grind fell 0.7% QoQ. YoY it is up 2%.
9/12/08 The USDA's U.S. 2008-2009 ending stocks estimate for:
Sugar was reduced from 767,000 to 505,000 tons.
9/10/08 ED&F Man predicts that world sugar production will fall short of consumption by 700,000 tons in 2008-2009.
8/12/08 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks guess for:
Sugar was increased from 607,000 to 767,000 short tons.
8/7/08 The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency denied the request from Texas to reduce the Renewable Fuels Standard this year, saying that they found no evidence that the mandate was causing "severe harm" to the economy.
6/11/08 (Bloomberg) -- India, the world's second-biggest sugar maker after Brazil, may resume imports of the sweetener after four years as farmers plant less sugar cane because of declining prices.
6/10/08 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Sugar was reduced from 1.336 to 1.273 million tons.
4/15/08 Cargill is building a million ton a year sugar refinery in Louisiana. The refinery is expected to start up in 2010.
4/9/08 The USDA's estimate for 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of
Sugar was reduced from 1.978 to 1.950 million tons.
2/18/07 Czarnikow lowered the world sugar production surplus for 2007-2008 from 10.5 to 9.7 million tons.
2/8/08 The USDA's estimate of 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of Sugar was raised from 2.006 to 2.029 million tons.
1/25/08 F.O. Licht, lowered it’s estimate for world sugar production this year by 0.5%. It estimates production at 169.1 ml tons, down from an October estimate of 169.9.
11/9/07 The USDA's 2007-20008 U.S. ending stocks estimate of
Sugar was reduced from 1.899 to 1.880 million tons.
10/30/07 The International Sugar Organization said a global sugar excess may take as long as two years to reduce because of record crops in India and Brazil.
10/12/07 The USDA's 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks estimate of Sugar increased from 1.802 to 1.899 million tons.
8/26/07 The International Sugar Organization estimates 2007-2008 world sugar production at 169.6 million tons, 10.8 million tons over consumetion.
8/10/07 The USDA's 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks estimate for: Sugar rose from 1.377 to 1.388 million tons.
8/9/07 The International Sugar Organization expects a 2007-2008 world production surplus of 10 million tons.
7/23/07 F.O. Licht, increased its estimate of the world 2006-2007 sugar crop by 5.5 million tons to 167.3 million tons.
6/11/07 The USDA estimates 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of Sugar rose from 1.340 to 1.417 million tons.
5/25/07 The USDA estimates 2007-2008 the world sugar production at 163.3 million tons up from 161.3 million tons YoY. World ending stocks are expected to rise 6.1 million tons to 45.1 million tons, or 29% of use.
4/10/07 The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Sugar was increased from 1.686 to 1.743 million tons.
3/6/07 Dow-Jones Newswires reports that Brazil is considering increasing the ethanol content of their fuel from 23% to 25%.
3/6/07 At its Outlook Forum, the USDA said they expect 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of Sugar to fall from 1.695 to 1.215 million tons.
2/12/07 F.O.Licht estimates 2006-2007 world sugar production at a record 160.6 million tons, up 13 million YoY.
2/9/07 The USDA's U.S. 2006-2007 ending stock estimate for Sugar was lowered from 1.801 to 1.695 million tons.
1/12/07 The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Sugar was reduced from 1.981 to 1.801 million tons.(Stocks to use ratio of 17%)
12/11/06 The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate of Sugar was increased from 1.87 to 1.98 million tons.
11/21/06 The USDA said that world sugar production will be 155.2 million tons in 2006-2007, up 7% YoY. World ending stocks will increase 4.2 million tons to 33.2 million tons -- 22% stock to use. The second lowest stocks to use ratio in nine years.
11/17/06 Brazil will increase the ethanol content of its gasoline from 20% to 23% on 11/20/06.
10/17/06 USAgnet: Czarnikow Sugar Ltd. says that Brazil is exporting so much ethanol, they may not meet domestic demand.
10/12/06 The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for sugar was reduced from 1.756 to 1.755 million tons.
8/31/06 The Brazilian government increased its estimate of the sugarcane crop to 471 million tons.
8/12/06 The USDA's U.S. 2006-2007 ending stocks estimate for Sugar was increased from 979,000 to 1,609,000 tons.
7/17/06 F.O. Licht predicted on Thursday that world sugar production will total 149.2 million tons during the 2005-2006 period, an increase of more than seven million tons compared to the previous harvest.
6/26/06 Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Economics forecast World sugar production next fiscal year at 152.5 million tons, up from 149.7 million tons this fiscal year, and Global consumption at 151.2 million tons up from 150.6 million tons this year.
6/20/06 India's sugarcane ethanol output is enough to cover the government's plan to blend 5% ethanol with gasoline starting in October 2006, the U.S. Dep. Of Agriculture said.
5/25/06 The USDA said that 2006-2007 world sugar ending stocks are expected to fall, from 30.97 to 30.92 million tons, 21% of annual use, matching the lowest stocks to use ratio in nine years. Brazil is expected produce 30.34 million tons, up from 27.1 million tons last year.
5/5/06 The Sao Paulo sugarcane industry association estimated Brazil's 2006-2007 center-south sugarcane crop at 375 million tons, up from a previous estimate of 363 million tons.
5/5/6 The Bush White House is urging Congress to remove the import tariff on ethanol. Farm-state lawmakers however say they're prepared to fight vigorously any attempt to remove the 54-cent tariff on imported ethanol even though demand for the additive is growing as refiners use more of it in gasoline.
4/10/06 The USDA 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Sugar was reduced from 1.51 to 1.50 million tons.
4/6/06 Mexico Sugar Growers Union sees 05-06 sugar crop down 8.8% YoY at 5.288M MT
3/10/06 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for sugar was lowered from 1.661 to 1.510 million tons.
3/6/06 Brazilian exports of ethanol rose to 145.1 million liters in February, up 20.7% from 120.2 million liters a year ago. U.S. demand dominated sales.
3/1/06 The International Sugar Organization estimates world sugar production in 2005-2006 at 149 million tons and total use at 151.2 million tons. Resulting in a production shortfall of 2.22 million tons -- larger than previous estimates.
2/21/06 Dow-Jones Newswires reported that because of strong ethanol demand, Brazil will reduce ethanol in its gasoline from 25% to 20%.
2/7/06 Brazil adds fuel to drive for ethanol Now Brazil's main challenge is meeting demand. The country aims to double ethanol production by 2013. Already demand is straining supplies between harvests, causing ethanol prices to rise to close to where petrol becomes more cost effective for flex-fuel drivers. But the industry says expanding sugar cane plantations and new ethanol plants will quickly solve the problem
1/12/06 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Sugar was reduced from 1.395 to 1.320 million tons.
12/9/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Sugar was increased from 667,000 to 1.395 million tons.
11/14/05 The International Sugar Organization expects world consumption to outpace production by one million tons in 2005-2006 and by two million tons in 2006-2007.
11/2/05 Early next year, Cargill will build the largest U.S. sugar refinery in Louisiana with the ability to process 10% of the nation's sugar.
10/12/05 USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimates for Sugar was increased from 1.014 to 1.089 million tons.
10/12/05 Today’s USDA production estimates for Sugar was reduced from 7.964 to 7.874 million tons.
10/03/05 March sugar closed up 0.30 cent at 11.53 cents a pound driven by ethanol demand and crop damage in the gulf.
09/20/05 Australia, Brazil and Thailand have accused the European Unionof failing to comply with a World Trade Organization decision that its subsidies to sugar producers were illegal.
09/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. crop estimate for
Sugar was lowered from 7.991 to 7.964 million tons.
09/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Sugar was increased from 0.785 to 1.014 million tons.
07/26/05 German consulting agency F.O. Licht raised their estimate of
global sugar consumption this year (2004/05) by 600,000 tonnes while raising  production by only 180,000 tonnes.
07/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Sugar was increased from 759,000 to 904,000 tons.
06/27/05 The Brazilian government estimated 2005-2006 sugar production at 27.2 million tons, up 2% YoY.
06/22/05 The European Union announced that it will be cutting its subsidized sugar price by 39%. October sugar was up .04 at 9.11.
05/26/05 The USDA estimates 2005-2006 world sugar production at 146.3 million tons, up from the previous years 142.1 million tons. The  2005-2006 world ending stocks are expected to decrease from 35.8 to 34.2 million tons -  or 23% of usage.
05/18/05 U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns has hit a roadblock as he stumps for the Central American Free Trade Agreement. Idaho sugar beet farmers are opposing the pact, known as CAFTA, because of provisions allowing 107,000
metric tons of sugar to be imported into the U.S.
05/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Sugar is 759,000 tons, down from 1,343,000 tons in 2004-2005.
04/28/05 The World Trade Organization ruled against European sugar subsidies today, saying that the subsidies violate their trade rules.
04/25/05 China's Ministry of Agriculture said that China will produce 10.0 million tons of sugar in 2004-2005, down slightly from the previous year and less than they consume.
04/22/05 ED&F Man said that they still expect world demand for sugar to exceed production in the upcoming year.
04/12/05 The USDA attaché increased the estimate of China's sugar imports from 1.2 million to 1.4 million metric tons. The estimate of sugarcane and beet acreage in China was increased by 6% for the upcoming year.
04/12/05 Chinese officials are visiting Brazil this week in search of knowledge on how to introduce ethanol as an additive into gasoline fuel.
03/14/05 Reuters is quoting Cuba's Sugar Minister as saying that the current drought that damaged last year's sugar crop is also ruining the upcoming crop.
03/11/05 ED&F Man has global sugar stocks falling by 5 million tons in 2004-2005.  About the same as the USDA's estimate of a 4.8 million ton drop in ending stocks.
02/09/05 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Sugar was reduced from 1.574 to 1.548 million tons.
01/12/05 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Sugar was reduced 91,000 tons to 1.574 million tons.
01/06/05 The world raw market is supported by expected import demand from Russia and India this quarter and by tightening supplies in Asia, where crops are smaller on the year in India, Thailand and other countries.
12/13/04 India's sugar output in the year ended next Sept. 30 is seen at 13.5 million tons, below a modest 14 million last year, the agriculture minister told Parliament Monday. Domestic consumption is 18 million tons annually. Since Sept. 1, 2003, India has imported 900,000 tons, he said.
12/10/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Sugar was reduced 274,000 tons to 1.665 million tons.
10/17/04 The European Union confirmed that the World Trade Organisation had ruled its subsidies for sugar production are illegal, but said it would appeal. The EU had been spending up to 1.3 billion euros (1.62 billion US dollars) a year on subsidies for an annual average of more than five million tonnes of sugar exports.
10/11/04 India in recent months shifted to being a net importer of sugar because of two consecutive small crops in a row.
09/02/04 Brazil's sugar exports were 1.62 million tons in August, down 17% from a year ago.
07/12/04 The USDA reduced the 2004-2005 estimate of U.S. sugar production from 8.59 to 8.48 million tons
05/28/04 The USDA predicted a 5.4 million ton production deficit  for the 2004-2005 world sugar market.
05/26/04 The International Sugar Organization said that they expect a world production surplus of .22 million tons in 2003-2004, but a 2.25 million ton deficit in 2004-2005.
04/07/04 Kingsman said that 2003-2004 world sugar demand will outpace production by 3.5 million tons and 2004-2005 world demand will outpace production by 3.4 million tons.
04/17/04 Czarnikow expects Brazil's 2004-2005 sugarcane crop to total   370 million tons.
03/04/04 The International Sugar Organization expects 2003-2004 world sugar production to total 146.5 million tons, and use to total 145.9 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 614,000 tons. This is less than the previous estimate of a 1.4 million ton surplus.