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Copper


Copper (Spot) from 1989 and 200 day exponential average in red. 200 day rate of change (ROC) red below.
 
Copper (Spot) CPI adjusted
 
Copper Recent (Spot)and 200 day exponential average in red. 200 day rate of change (ROC) red below.
 
London Copper and 200 day xaverage (red )
 
Copper Futures - The Blue line is a Donchian channel, red line is a 5 day exponential average, green line is a 20 day exponential average. Vertical green bars MACD (Moving average convergence divergence) 5 and 20.
 
Copper Point & Figure (spot) Box = 25 Rev= 3
 
World Copper Mine Production / Usage Trends
 

London Metal Exchange Copper Inventory  
 

Shanghai Exchange Copper Inventory  
 
Comex  Copper Inventory  
 
World Copper (LDN+NY+WU) Inventory
 
Copper Notes & Links:
 



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12/2/13 Bloomberg: Copper supply will outpace demand by 407,000 metric tons this quarter, compared with a 636,000-ton shortfall in the previous six months, according to Barclays. Next year’s surplus will total 193,000 tons, from a 63,000-ton deficit in 2013, the bank says.
12/30/12 Copper demand will outpace supply by 316,000 metric tons in the first six months next year, more than all copper in London Metal Exchange warehouses, before a surplus emerges in the second half, Barclays Plc estimates
9/7/12 China, the world's largest consumer of copper, gave the green light for 60 projects worth more than $150 billion that is expected to energize the economy.
12/9/11 Intern. Copper Study Group:
2011 Production forecast 19.724 mmt up 3.5% YoY
2011 Consumption forecast 20.102 mmt up 4.1% YoY
-377,000  mt deficit
2012 production forecast 20.686 up 4.9%
2012 consumption forecast 20.965 mmt
-279,000 mt deficit
3/31/11 The speculation that an estimated 500,000 to 1 million tons of copper is hidden from the market in China is  likely inflated --  so says Commerzbank.
3/28/11 Bloomberg: Copper will lead a rally in base metals this year as increased consumption in China reduces inventories and higher prices encourage stockpiling, according to researcher Brook Hunt, a Wood Mackenzie company.
3/23/11 Global refined copper supply was in a deficit of 305 thousand tons in 2010, according to International Copper Study Group (ICSG).
Rio Tinto expects global copper consumption, over the next 20-30 years, to exceed the total historical consumption to date.
Copper demand will exceed supply by 889,000 metric tons this year, Barclays estimated in a March 15 report.
2/13/11 China imported 364,240 metric tons of copper, copper alloy and semifinished products in January, an increase of 5.7% MoM and a rise of 25% YoY.
1/14/11 The world refined copper market is expected to have a 500,000-metric-ton to 600,000-ton deficit in 2011, even with a significantly weaker demand scenario, according to JPMorgan Securities Ltd.
Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- One unidentified company has the potential to own at least 90 percent of the copper in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange, the largest such position in two years, bourse data showed.
12/13/10 Precious metals will probably give investors the best returns among commodities in the next year, and livestock the worst, Goldman Sachs  said. Goldman also sees cotton prices hitting 125 cents a pound in a year's time, and soybeans at $14.00 a bushel.
JPMorgan has quietly reduced a large "short" position in the US silver futures market.
12/7/10 ETF Securities says it has approval from European regulators to launch three physically backed metals ETF’s. Expected to begin trading Friday in London, the ETF’s specialize in copper, nickel and tin.
10/13/10 Analysts expect Copper demand to outstrip next year’s supply by more than 400,000 tonnes.
9/29/10 YoY Chilean copper output grew 1.3% in August to 467,680 metric tons from the 461,856 tons produced in August 2009.
4/22/10 China's copper imports rose by 53% in March
1/25/10 (Bloomberg) -- Copper may rise to a record $10,000 a metric ton this year, driven by industrial demand in China and rising commodity investments to hedge inflation, said Shen Haihua, an investment manager at HFZ Capital Management Ltd.
6/22/09 China imported 337,230 tons of copper in May, a record high that dropped copper to the lowest level in more than two weeks. It was taken as a signal for a peak in demand from the world's biggest consumer of the red metal.
5/22/09 China's copper imports rose 7% MoM and up 149% YoY
4/15/09 A 'Copper Standard' for the world's currency system? Hard money enthusiasts have long watched for signs that China is switching its foreign reserves from US Treasury bonds into gold bullion. They may have been eyeing the wrong metal.
4/13/09 MoM Chinese copper imports rose 14 % to a record 374,957 metric tons.
3/3/2009 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese state stockpiling of copper may mean the withdrawal of about a quarter of the metal held in warehouses
11/25/08 BHP Billiton scrapped its hostile bid for Rio Tinto because of slumping commodity prices.
11/21/08 The International Copper Study Group said that world copper production exceeded use by 125,000 tons in August.
8/8/08 Chile's state-run copper company said output fell 11.6 percent in the first half of the year amid heavy rains and labor strikes.
1/22/08 The International Copper Study Group said in the first ten months of 2007, world copper usage outpaced production by 220,000 tons.
8/26/07 The International Copper Study Group said that in the first five months of 2007, world usage of copper outpaced production by 300,000 tons.
7/19/07 The International Copper Study Group said that in the first four months of 2007, world copper demand exceeded production by 157,000 tons.
5/17/07 The International Copper Study Group is forecasting that world production of copper will exceed use by 270,000 tons this year and by 520,000 tons in 2008.
4/25/07 The International Copper Study Group estimates world copper production exceeded consumption by 40,000 tons in January. World mine production was up 9% YoY, total usage was up 6% YoY.
4/3/07 Copper rose to the highest in five months on speculation that mine output may lag behind demand, especially from China.
10/10/06 The International Copper Study Group said that world copper production exceeded usage in the first half of 2006 by 13,000 tons.
6/27/06 The International Copper Study Group said that world copper production exceeded demand in the first quarter of 2006 by 64,000 tons, up from an 89,000 ton deficit in the first quarter of 2005. Production was up 4.8% YoY while usage was up 1%.
5/19/06 London copper inventories are at 119,050 tons.
4/5/06 London Copper inventory is at 113,925 tons.
3/6/06 /London inventories of copper are at 121,175 tons.
3/1/06 London copper inventories are at 115,275 tons.
2/17/06 The International Copper Study Group said that in the first eleven months of 2005, world copper demand exceeded production by 154,000 tons – this with demand down 1% YoY and production up 4% YoY.
1/18/06 London inventories of copper are at 104,375 tons.
12/29/05 London inventories of copper increased 7,150 tons to 87,750.
12/21/05 London inventories of copper increased 3,550 tons to 80,600 tons.
11/17/05 The Chinese government reportedly sold 20,000 tons of copper from its state reserves today after one of its traders disappeared while carrying a large copper short position.
10/5/05 London inventories of copper were down 1,375 tons today to 74,975 tons
06/20/05 London inventories of copper are now at 34,500 tons.
06/17/05 December copper climbed .0195 to another new contract high of $1.4475, boosted by strong world (especially Asian) demand. The key to renewed interest is LME inventories at 36-year lows tallying just 36,150 tons, down 40% from this year's peak. The release of unexpectedly strong Chinese May industrial production data Wednesday at 16.6% provided the initial boost. analysts said.   "China's economy is growing faster for longer. It's soaking up copper concentrate, primary material and scrap," said Angus MacMillan, metals analyst at Bache Financial .
06/01/05 London Copper inventories fell  900 tons to 44,325 tons.
05/26/05 London inventories of Copper declined 2,825 tons to 46,400 tons.
03/09/05 The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said that its preliminary data shows 2004 world copper consumption exceeding production by 706,000 tons, up from 2003's production deficit of 386,000 tons. For all of 2004, world refined production was up 3.6% while consumption was up 5.5%. The biggest gains in demand came from the U.S., Japan, and China..
02/18/05 Copper prices at 16-year high amid strong Chinese demand. Copper has risen sharply over the past year as the strongest growth of the global economy for 30 years boosted the prices of commodities across the board..... Global inventory levels of the metal are at record lows but mining companies are beginning to increase the amount of copper they produce.
12/30/04 London inventories of copper were reduced by 89% this year, ending 2004 at 49,375 tons.
12/29/04 An official on Chile's Copper Commission said that he expects copper production in Chile to increase 3.5% in 2005 to 5.5 million tons.
12/13/04 The world refined copper market was in a production deficit of 777,000 tons during January to September, compared with a production deficit of 399,000 tons in the corresponding period in 2003, the International Copper Study Group said.
11/25/04 London inventories of copper are down 86% YoY to 62,050 tons.
11/11/04 London inventories continue to fall, now at 68,625 tons the lowest in 14 years.
11/04/04 London inventories of copper continue to fall, now down to 75,750.
10/28/04 London copper inventories are at 79,750 tons after starting the year at 432,975 tons.
10/15/04 Chile, the world's largest copper producer, exported $985.6 million worth of the red metal in September, up 68.6 percent from September 2003.
10/04/04 London inventories of copper are up 8,350 tons today to 100,150 tons.
09/23/04 London inventories of copper fell to 98,800 tons.
09/08/04 The International Copper Study Group said that world copper usage has exceeded production by 682,000 tons in the first half of 2004. In the first half of 2004 world production was up 2% from a year ago while total usage was up 6%.
08/18/04 London inventories of copper increased  30,925 tons  to 111,100 tons.
07/23/04 London Copper inventories have dropped  to 91,525 tons.
07/09/04 London Copper inventories are down to 98,300 tons, a 77% drop this year.
05/28/04 The International Copper Study Group released their 2004 and 2005 estimates from last week's meeting in Lisbon. In 2004, they expect world production to fall short of usage by 750,000 tons, much larger than last year's 361,000 ton deficit. In 2005, they expect another world production deficit of 521,000 tons.
05/27/04 Chile produced 433,320 tons of copper in April, up 12% from a year ago.
02/19/04 London inventories of copper continue to fall, now stand at  308,750 tons,down 29%  from the first of the year.