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"If kindness and comfort are, as I suspect, the results of an energy surplus, then, as the supply contracts, we could be expected to start fighting once again like cats in a sack."
George Monbiot


Ethanol Futures the Blue line is a Donchian channel, red line is a 5 day exponential average, green line is a 20 day exponential average. Vertical green bars MACD (Moving average convergence divergence)  5 and 20.
Notes & Links
The Economist Dec/8/07:Fill up an SUV's fuel tank with ethanol and you have used enough maize to feed a person for a year.
4/18/11 A University of Illinois study shows that when wholesale gasoline prices are $3.00/gallon, the shutdown price of corn for ethanol plants is $9.78/bushel. When gasoline is $2.50/gallon, the shutdown price is $7.84/bushel. Gasoline at $3.50 raises the shutdown price to $11.72."

6/18/11 The Senate killed the ethanol tax credit in a vote of 73 to 27. These same clowns voted less than one month ago to preserve billions of dollars in taxpayer handouts to the oil industry. This Senate action won’t result in a bill, since the House has to initiate tax legislation.
(Current subsidies for the oil industry total up to $280 billion annually, representing up to $2 per gallon of gasoline)
7/28/10 The DOE said:
Supplies of crude oil rose 7.31 million barrels to 360.8 million in the week ended July 23. More Than expected
Gasoline inventories rose by 100,000 barrels to 222.2 million barrels
Demand for gasoline rose 2.1 % YoY
U.S. refineries ran at 90.6% of total capacity.
Supplies of distillate fuel, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 900,000 barrels to 167.5 million barrels.
7/16/10  U.S. Lawmakers are considering lowering a tax credit for ethanol blenders from 45¢/gall to 36¢.
2/9/10 Brazilian ethanol mills are reaching out to chemical companies to develop plastics and other products in a bid to diversify. The mills harvest sugar cane and crush it into sugar or ethanol, but the operators are now looking to earn new revenue by sourcing ethanol as a raw material.
2/3/10 The U.S. Department of Energy said:
Supplies of crude oil rose 2.3 million barrels to 329.0 million barrels.
Supplies of gasoline fell 1.3 million barrels
Supplies of heating oil rose 800,000 barrels.
Refinery use fell from 78.5% to 77.7%.
Gasoline demand fell 0.5% YoY
Distillate demand fell 9.1% YoY.
2/1/10 Shell plans $1.63B investment in Brazilian ethanol.
12/1/09 The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said Tuesday it would delay until mid-2010 a decision on whether to increase the amount of ethanol added to ordinary gasoline, putting off a controversial ruling with consequences for farm states and the oil and automobile industries.The delay was anticipated by traders.
5/22/09 A report on ethanol predicted world demand for ethanol will rise 9.3% per year for five years.
5/6/09 The USDA estimates that Brazil will produce 28.45 billion liters of ethanol in 2009-2010, up from 26.85 billion liters YoY.
4/17/09 The Environmental Protection Agency is considering increasing the ethanol blend in gasoline from 10% to 15%.
2/4/09 Bloomberg reported that India, the biggest maker of sugar after Brazil, produced 9.5 million metric tons in the four months through January, down 20% YoY as farmers harvested less cane
8/7/08 The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency denied the request from Texas to reduce the Renewable Fuels Standard this year, saying that they found no evidence that the mandate was causing "severe harm" to the economy.
3/28/08 The U.S. produced 6.48 billion gallons of ethanol in 2007, up 34% YoY. The U.S. capacity is now 13.4 billion gallons with another 5.2 billion gallons on the way in 08.
3/25/08 The American Coalition for Ethanol says gasoline prices would be 6 to 9 cents per gallon higher were it not for ethanol.
2/6/08 Ethanol production hit a new record high of 14.356 million barrels in November, up 338,000 barrels from October and up 40% YoY.
The Bush budget proposal sent to Congress will let the 54c a gallon ethanol import tariff expires when the FY 2009 budget begins Oct 1, 2008
12/15/07 The Economist Dec/8/07: the 30m tonnes of extra maize going to ethanol this year amounts to half the fall in the worlds's overall grain stocks.
12/11/07 The current US ethanol capacity is 7.3 billion gallons a year. If the projected new capacity comes on line during 2008, capacity will rise to 13.5 billion gallons a year.
9/6/07 U.S. ethanol demand is at a record high of 443,000 barrels a day in June.
U.S. ethanol production capacity is currently 6.7 billion gallons, rising to 6.6 billion gallons in 2009.
USDA Chief Economist Keith Collins says growing demand for ethanol is not only driving grain prices higher in the U.S., but around the world.
8/8/07 The California Air Resources Board mandated that gasoline sold in the state include 10% ethanol by the end of 2009. California consumed 1 billion gallons of ethanol this year and the new rules will likely double that figure.
3/6/07 Dow-Jones Newswires reports that Brazil is considering increasing the ethanol content of their fuel from 23% to 25%.
3/6/07 The U.S. produced 4.86 billion gallons of ethanol in 2006, up 24% YoY. U.S. ethanol demand totaled 5.4 billion gallons, a 33% YoY. According to the RFA, U.S. ethanol production capacity is 5.6 billion gallons with another 6 billion gallons under construction.
1/23/07 Japan is considering legislation designed to encourage the widespread use of biofuels such as ethanol as a way to tackle global warming and diversify energy sources, The Nikkei reported.
1/4/07 Economist Warns on Ethanol Corn Demand. According to the Earth Policy Institute's data, U.S. ethanol distilleries now online or in the works will pull an estimated 139 million tons -- or 5.5 billion bushels -- of corn from the 2008 corn harvest to produce fuel for automobiles. That's based on 116 existing ethanol plants, 79 under construction, 11 undergoing expansion and 200 plants in the planning stages expected to be running by corn harvest time in September 2008.
1/4/07 The U.S. produced 333,000 barrels of ethanol per day in October. The U.S. is expected to produce 4.9 billion gallons of ethanol in 2006, up 25% YoY.
12/26/06 Canadian officials are proposing a C$345 million program requiring biofuel content of 5% in gasoline by 2010 and 2% in diesel fuel and heating oil by 2012, the Associated Press reported.
11/1/06 Brazil announced that they will raise the ethanol content of their gasoline from 20% to 23%, starting on November 20th.
U.S. Ethanol production totaled 329,000 barrels a day in August, up 69,000 barrels YoY. Demand was 385,000 barrels a day.
10/4/06 Dow-Jones reported that in the first nine months of 2006, the U.S. bought 70% of Brazil's 2.3 billion liters of ethanol exports.
10/3/06 The Renewable Fuels Association said the U.S. consumed 360,000 barrels ar day of ethanol in July, more than the 316,000 daily barrels that were produced.
8/29/06 The Renewable Fuels Association said the U.S. produced 318,000 barrels of ethanol a day in June, up 28% YoY.
6/20/06 India's sugarcane ethanol output is enough to cover the government's plan to blend 5% ethanol with gasoline starting in October 2006, the U.S. Dep. Of Agriculture said.
6/12/06 Ethanol production averaged 301,000 barrels per day in the U.S. in March, that is nearly 60,000 barrels above March, 2005. Stocks increased 1.3 million gallons.
6/3/06 Ethanol dazzles Wall Street, White House -- Ethanol production in the United States is growing so quickly that for the first time, farmers expect to sell as much corn this year to ethanol plants as they do overseas.
"It's the most stunning development in agricultural markets today — I can't think of anything else quite like this," says Keith Collins, the U.S. Agriculture Department's chief economist.
The amount of corn used for ethanol, estimated at 2.15 billion bushels this year, would amount to about 20 percent of the nation's entire crop, according to department projections.
Even as ethanol devours corn and pushes prices higher, the president and Congress are calling for even greater ethanol use. Wall Street cannot seem to get enough of ethanol-related investments. Automakers are speeding ethanol-capable vehicles onto the road.