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Cotton




Cotton from 1973 and 200 day exponential average (red)
 
Cotton Stock to Use Ratio
 
Cotlook "A" index
 
Cotton Futures chart, the Blue line is a Donchian channel, red line is a 5 day exponential average, green line is a 20 day exponential average. Vertical green bars MACD (Moving average convergence divergence) 5 and 20.
 
Cotton Point & Figure (Spot) Box value = 40 reversal = 2
 
Cotton Notes & Links:
 
China National Cotton Exchange (Chinese cotton news site)
Plexus Cotton (Weekly cotton report)

US Cotton marketing year runs from August 1 to July 31

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12/2/11 Goldman: The combination of a record cotton crop and falling consumption will expand global stockpiles by the most since 2005, driving further declines in the price.
3/31/11 China to build cotton reserves to encourage output. The announcement comes as farmers across China are becoming increasingly concerned that cotton prices could tumble from historic highs
1/21/11 1/21/11 The International Grains Council estimates 2010-11 record-high world rice production, up 2.8% YoY.
IGC says world wheat stocks for 2010-11 are higher at 185 million metric tons.
IGC 2010-11 world corn production was dropped 1.0 million metric tons, with losses in the U.S. and Argentina.
(Dow Jones)--Brazil's 2010-11 soy crop may reach a record after recent rains in Rio Grande do Sul state, according to an analyst at Informa Economics FNP.
Informa U.S. acreage estimates for 2011:
Corn=90.9 million up from Dec. estimate of 90.76.
Soybeans=76.65 million down from Dec. estimate 77.57.
Wheat=40.99 million up from 39.502 in Dec.
Cotton=13.34 million up from 294,000 in Dec.
Soybean oil is supported by ongoing concerns about heavy rains hurting palm oil output in Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's top two producers.
12/17/10 (Bloomberg) Informa Economics Inc. said farmers will plant corn on 90.755 million acres, less than a November forecast of 93.055 million. Soybeans will be sown on 77.565 million, down from a record 77.714 million this year, the Memphis-based researcher said today in a report. Informa said farmers may plant the most acres of cotton in five years, after prices jumped to a record.
Elwynn Taylor: The La Niña to date is tracking the 1973-4 event, a Risk factor for 2011
7/9/10 The USDA's U.S. 2010-2011 ending stocks estimate for:
Cotton was raised from 2.80 to 3.50 million bales.
The USDA's world 2010-2011 ending stocks estimate for:
Cotton was raised slightly from 49.6 to 49.9 million bales.
7/2/10 (Bloomberg) India, the world’s second-largest cotton grower and exporter, will end curbs on overseas sales in the new crop year amid forecasts for a record harvest, said a government official.
6/18/10 (Bloomberg) -- China, the largest cotton user, may raise its import quota for the natural fiber as it sells more from government stockpiles to quench a supply shortfall, an industry analyst said
6/10/10 The USDA's 2010-2011 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Cotton was lowered from 3.0 to 2.8 million bales.
The USDA's 2010-2011 world ending stocks estimate for:
Cotton was lowered slightly from 50.1 to 49.6 million bales
4/20/10 India stopped exporting cotton to protect domestic supplies.
4/9/10 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
Cotton was reduced from 3.20 to 3.00 million bales.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Cotton was reduced slightly to 51 million tons.
2/9/10 The USDA estimates 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks for:
Cotton was reduced from 4.3 to 3.3 million bales.
The USDA estimates 2009-2010 world ending stocks for:
Cotton was increased from 51.7 to 52.1 million bales.
2/3/10 China's Cotton Association estimated that cotton plantings will be down 5% this year.
1/12/10 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
Cotton was lowered from 4.50 to 4.30 million bales.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Cotton was lowered to 51.7 million bales.
12/10/09 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was raised from 1.625 to 1.675 billion bushels.
Some 12% of the crop is still sitting in the snow!
Soybeans were reduced from 270 to 255 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 885 to 900 million bushels.
Sugar was kept at 1.016 million tons.
Cotton was lowered from 4.90 to 4.50 million bales.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was kept at 132 million tons.
Soybeans were kept at 57 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 188 to 191 million tons.
Cotton was lowered from 54 to 52 million tons.
11/30/09 China's cotton imports in October rose 23% YoY to 118,580 metric tons, the General Administration of Customs said Monday. In the January-October period, cotton imports fell 36% to 1,196,644 tons.
11/10/09 USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
Cotton was lowered from 5.40 to 4.90 million bales.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Cotton was reduced from 56 to 54 million bales.
10/9/09 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
Cotton was lowered from 5.6 to 5.4 million bales.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Cotton unchanged at 56 million tons.
8/12/09 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 1.550 to 1.621 billion bushels.
Soybeans lowered from 250 to 210 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 706 to 743 million bushels.
Sugar was reaised from 359,000 to 709,000 tons.
Cotton unchanged at 5.60 million bales.
The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was raised from 139 to 141 million tons.
Soybeans lowered from 52 to 50 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 181 to 184 million tons.
Cotton was lowered from 58 to 57 million bales.
7/10/09 The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Cotton unchanged at 5.60 million bales.
Cotton was raised from 57 to 58 million tons.
6/10/09 USDA’s 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimates:
Cotton was unchanged at 5.60 million bales.
USDA’s 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimates:
Cotton was lowered from 58 to 57 million tons.
5/12/09 The USDA estimates 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks of:
Cotton at 5.6 million bales, down from 6.8 million bales in 2008-2009.
The USDA estimates 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Cotton at 58 million bales, down from 62 million bales in 2008-2009
3/31/09 The USDA said March 1st stocks of:
Corn totaled 6.96 billion bushels, up 1% YoY.
Soybeans totaled 1.30 billion bushels, down 9% YoY.
Wheat totaled 1.04 billion bushels, up 46% YoY.
The USDA said, in 2009, U.S. farmers intend to plant:
84.99 million acres of corn, down 1% YoY.
76.02 million acres of soybeans.
58.64 million acres of wheat, down 7% YoY
8.81 million acres of cotton, down 7% YoY.
3/11/09 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Cotton was reduced from 7.7 to 7.3 million bales.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
Cotton was increased from 62 to 63 million tons.
2/10/09 The USDA estimates U.S. 2008-2009 ending stocks of:
Cotton was raised from 6.90 to 7.70 million bales.
The USDA estimates 2008-2009 ending stocks of:
Cotton was raised from 59 to 62 million tons.
1/11/09 The USDA's 2008-2009 ending stocks estimate for:
Cotton was dropped from 7.1 to 6.9 million bales.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
Cotton unchanged at 59 million tons.
12/11/2008 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Cotton was raised from 6.2 to 7.1 million bales.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
Cotton was raised from 57 to 59 million tons.
11/10/08 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Cotton unchanged at 6.20 million bales.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for:
Cotton was increased from 55 to 57 million tons.
9/12/08 The USDA's U.S. 2008-2009 ending stocks estimate for:
Cotton was increased from 4.6 to 4.9 million bales.
The USDA's world 2008-2009 ending stocks estimate for:
Cotton was increased from 51 to 52 million bales.
8/12/08 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks guess for:
Cotton was reduced from 5.30 to 4.60 million bales.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks guess for:
Cotton was reduced from 53 to 51 million bales.
6/30/08 The USDA estimated 9.25 million acres of cotton were planted, down 15% YoY.
6/10/08 The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Cotton was reduced from 5.6 to 5.4 million bales.
The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks estimate for Cotton was reduced from 55.5 to 54.1 million bales.
4/9/08 The USDA's estimate for 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of
Cotton was raised from 9.40 to 9.70 million bales.
The USDA's estimate for 2007-2008 world ending stocks of
Cotton was increased from 59.2 to 59.6 million bales.
3/31/08 In 2008 the USDA expects farmers to plant 9.4 million acres of cotton, down 13% YoY.
2/21/08 The USDA said that its 2008 preliminary planting estimate for:
Cotton is 9.5 million acres, down 12% from the previous year.
2/8/08 The USDA's estimate of 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of Cotton was raised from 7.90 to 8.20 million bales.
2/8/08 The USDA's estimate of 2007-2008 world ending stocks of Cotton was raised from 54.75 to 57.33 million bales.
11/9/07 The USDA's 2007-20008 U.S. ending stocks estimate of
Cotton was increased from 6.40 to 7.60 million bales.
The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate of
Cotton was reduced from 55.0 to 54.8 million bales.
10/12/07 The USDA's 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks estimate of
Cotton increased from 6.2 to 6.4 million bales.
The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate of
Cotton increased from 52 to 55 million bales.
8/10/07 The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate for:Cotton rose from 50.8 to 51.5 million tons.
8/10/07 The USDA's 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:Cotton fell from 5.90 to 5.80 million bales.
6/29/07 The USDA estimates planted acres of Cotton at 11.1 million acres, down 28% YoY -- the lowest since 1989.
6/11/07 The USDA estimates 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of Cotton rose from 6.40 to 6.70 million bales.
The USDA estimates 2007-2008 world ending stocks of Cotton rose to 51 million tons.
4/10/07 The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Cotton was increased from 8.80 to 9.20 million bales.
The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate for Cotton was increased from 52.4 to 52.6 million bales.
3/30/07 The USDA's Prospective Plantings report expects 12.15 million acres of cotton, down from 15.27 million acres a year ago.
3/6/07 At its Outlook Forum, the USDA said they expect 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks of Cotton to fall from 8.30 to 5.80 million bales
2/9/07 The USDA's U.S. 2006-2007 ending stock estimate for Cotton was increased from 7.10 to 8.30 million bales. (stocks to use ratio 43%, the most in 18 years)
The USDA's world 2006-2007 ending stock estimate for Cotton was raised from 52 to 53 million tons.
1/12/07 The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Cotton was increased from 6.30 to 7.10 million bales.
1/12/07 The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate for Cotton was increased slightly to 52 million tons.
12/11/06 The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate of Cotton was increased from 6.0 to 6.3 million bales.
The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate of Cotton was increased from 51.0 to 51.5 million bales.
11/30/06 U.S. Cotton mill use declined from an annual rate of 5.2 to 5.1 million bales in October.
10/12/06 The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for cotton was increased from 4.60 to 5.40 million bales.
10/12/06 The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate for Cotton was increased from 47 to 52 million tons.
8/12/06 The USDA's U.S. 2006-2007 ending stocks estimate for Cotton was reduced from 4.90 to 4.70 million bales.
8/12/06 The USDA's world 2006-2007 ending stocks estimate for Cotton was increased from 47 to 48 million bales.
8/9/06 DJ Newswires said China's textile industry expects cotton imports to increase from 2.6 million tons last year to 7 million by 2010.
8/2/06 The International Cotton Advisory Committee expects 2006-2007 world ending stocks to total 45 million bales, less than the USDA's 47.5 million bale estimate.
6/30/06 The USDA estimated U.S. planted acres this spring
15.3 million acres of cotton, up 7% from a year ago and up 5% from the March estimate.
4/10/06 The USDA 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
cotton was reduced from 6.60 to 6.50 million bales.
The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate for cotton was reduced from 53.3 to 52.9 million bales.
3/31/06 The USDA's 2006-2007 planting estimate for Cotton is 14.6 million acres, up 3% YoY.
3/10/06 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for cotton was lowered from 7.00 to 6.60 million bales.
12/20/05 The Australian Cotton Industry Council estimates the upcoming cotton crop at 2.5 million bales, down from 2.9 million bales this year.
12/9/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate for Cotton was increased from 50 to 51 million tons.
12/9/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Cotton was increased from 6.50 to 6.90 million bales.
11/29/05 The USDA said that U.S. Cotton stocks for 2005/06 are forecast to rise 1 million bales to 6.5 million by season’s end, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 29 percent and the highest in 4 years.
10/27/05 U.S. cotton mill use dropped from an annual rate of 6.00 to 5.73 million bales in September.
10/12/05 USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimates for Cotton was reduced from 7.00 to 6.40 million bales.
10/12/05 Today’s USDA production estimates for Cotton was increased from 22.28 to 22.72 million bales.
09/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. crop estimate for
Cotton was increased from 21.29 to 22.28 million bales.
The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Cotton remained at 7.0 million bales.
07/12/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Cotton was increased from 6.20 to 6.70 million bales.
The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate for
Cotton was increased from 44 to 49 million bales.
05/26/05 U.S. domestic  cotton mill usage declined to an annual rate of 6.17 to 6.14 million bales in April.
05/16/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Cotton is 6.30 million bales, down from 7.10 million bales in 2004-2005.
05/16/05 The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate for
Cotton is 45 million bales, down from 49 million bales in 2004-2005.
04/26/05 French President Chirac asks measures to control flood of Chinese textile exports to the EU.
The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Cotton was reduced from 7.30 to 7.10 million bushels.
The USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for
Cotton was increased from 47 to 48 million tons.
03/04/05 International development groups are calling on the United States to swiftly comply with a World Trade Organisation (WTO) final ruling issued Thursday declaring the bulk of U.S. government subsidies to its cotton industry illegal
03/03/05 The World Trade Organization ruled again that U.S. cotton subsidies are too high, but it is not clear what action, if any, the U.S. will be forced to take.
03/02/05 The International Cotton Adv. said estimates of world production in 2004/5 were raised for the 10th consecutive month - with the crop now estimated at 25.4m tons, up 23 % from last season.
02/17/05 Compared to one year ago, U.S. exports for Cotton improved from -13% to -12%.
02/09/05 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for Cotton was reduced from 7.70 to 7.30 million bales. And the USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for Cotton was reduced slightly to 46.7 million bales.
01/28/05 The National Cotton Council  expects 13.7 million acres of cotton to be planted in the U.S. this year, slightly less than a year ago and less than expected.
01/27/05 U.S. cotton mill use improved from an annual rate of 6.38 to 6.46 million bales in December.
01/12/05 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Cotton was kept at 7.70 million bales. The USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for Cotton was increased slightly to 47 million bales.
01/06/05 Compared to one year ago, U.S. exports for
Cotton improved from -15% to -11%.
01/05/05 Dunavant, chief executive officer of Dunavant Enterprises Inc. in Memphis, a cotton merchandising firm, unveiled his 2005 cotton-market forecast Wednesday at the Beltwide Cotton Conference in New Orleans. He estimated 2004-05 world production at 115.5 million bales, up from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's December forecast of 114.02 million bales.    World consumption was put at 104 million bales, compared to the USDA forecast of 103.3 million bales. He estimated world carryover at 46.9 million bales,from USDA's estimate of 46.5 million bales.   Dunavant pegged the 2004-05 U.S. cotton crop at 22.8 million bales, unchanged from the USDA estimate.
12/10/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for
Cotton was increased 200,000 bales to 7.70 million bales, and the USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for Cotton was increased 2 million tons to 47 million tons.
Today's USDA Crop Production report said that U.S. cotton yields were a record high 828 pounds per harvested acre, the previous record was 730 pounds in 2003.
11/12/04 The USDA's U.S. 2004-2005 production estimate for
Cotton was increased from 21.54 to 22.54 million bales and
the USDA's U.S. 2004-2005 ending stocks estimate for
Cotton was increased by 800,000 bales to 7.50 million bales.
10/11/04 The USDA's world 2004-2005 ending stocks estimates for Cotton increased from 40 to 42 million tons.
10/11/04 The USDA's U.S. 2004-2005 ending stocks estimates for Cotton were increased 600,000 bales to 6.70 million bales.
10/11/04 The U.S. 2004-2005 production estimate for Cotton was increased from 20.90 to a record high 21.54 million bales.
09/10/04 The USDA estimates of 2004-2005 world ending stocks for
Cotton were increased 1 million bales to 40 million bales.
09/10/04 The USDA estimates of 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks for
Cotton were increased 200,000 bales to 6.10 million bales
08/30/04 China's cotton textile industry grew 15% in the first half of 2004 from a year ago.
07/12/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 estimates of world ending stocks for
Cotton were increased  to 38 million bales.
07/12/04 The USDA's 2004-2005 U.S. production estimate for Cotton is 18.0 million bales, down 2% from a year ago.
06/30/04 The USDA reported cotton acres of 13.947 million acres.